Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Trees snapped in half rather than uprooted bc the tree line wind was ripping but the ground was rock hard and didn’t have efficient mixing to surface in gusts.

That looks opposite with this one.

I lived on a barrier island which made whatever rain irrelevant (10 foot storm tide). I also remember the sustained wind being strong but not crazy but the gusts were 85+ when they could mix down. 

[NJwx85]

Not sure if the RGEM has the same bias as the 3k NAM but it has one hell of a storm and it’s still raining well into Monday. Widespread 4-5” totals well into NJ and SE NY. The only good thing is that it’s weakening as it comes onshore.

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Trees snapped in half rather than uprooted bc the tree line wind was ripping but the ground was rock hard and didn’t have efficient mixing to surface in gusts.

That looks opposite with this one.

that's exactly what it was like in the city too - you could hear the roar between the buildings, and occasionally those gusts would mix down to the surface and just tear through scaffolding, etc.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not sure if the RGEM has the same bias as the 3k NAM but it has one hell of a storm and it’s still raining well into Monday. Widespread 4-5” totals well into NJ and SE NY. The only good thing is that it’s weakening as it comes onshore.

That seems more accurate with the rain shield

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks like a beast of a nor Easter on satellite already, wasn’t expecting that. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

That seems more accurate with the rain shield

The HRRR is similar with track but weaker. Both have a landfall near Monmouth County Sunday morning. By then it’s occluding.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, jconsor said:

The NWS water level forecast for Sandy Hook may be conservative.  Consensus of the 3 main forecast models (https://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/) is for a water level peaking around 9 feet, with potential for 9.5-10 feet in the higher end scenarios.  That could easily put this event as the fourthhighest in the past 60 years.

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which  would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level.

The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport  forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.
 

 

[Big Jims Videos]

1 hour ago, Prue11 said:

This is not sandy!!! Major storm with major impacts yes, but not sandy impacts 

I can tell you no one is calling this Sandy in the respected media. I don't know what the clickbate Facebook-ologists are saying but this idea of the media hyping this as a Sandy is simply not true. (You're not doing that but I'm seeing many angry posts from people telling us stop hyping)

[Neblizzard]

12z GFS is a soaker for most of the area . 2-3 inches of rain as the storm drives right into NJ

[winterwx21]

GFS gives us a pretty good soaking tomorrow too before the main event. I wonder if that's right because some of the mesoscale models say we're not gonna see much rain during the day tomorrow. 

[Winter Wizard]

The only similarities between this storm and Sandy are they're both occurring at high tide and to an extent retrograding westward. Sandy is going to be 40-50 mb stronger and several times larger in diameter and wind field. This isn't even in the same league. Having said that, I do think the coastal flooding in some areas may end up getting close to those levels, particularly on Long Island, Raritan Bay, and parts of the Jersey Shore. 

[Yanksfan]

1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said:

The only similarities between this storm and Sandy are they're both occurring at high tide and to an extent retrograding westward. Sandy is going to be 40-50 mb stronger and several times larger in diameter and wind field. This isn't even in the same league. Having said that, I do think the coastal flooding in some areas may end up getting close to those levels, particularly on Long Island, Raritan Bay, and parts of the Jersey Shore. 

Sandy barely gave me any rain at all.

[Winter Wizard]

Just now, Yanksfan said:

Sandy barely gave me any rain at all.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

The only similarities between this storm and Sandy are they're both occurring at high tide and to an extent retrograding westward. Sandy is going to be 40-50 mb stronger and several times larger in diameter and wind field. This isn't even in the same league. Having said that, I do think the coastal flooding in some areas may end up getting close to those levels, particularly on Long Island, Raritan Bay, and parts of the Jersey Shore. 

Much warmer SST’s than with sandy also affect thermal expansion and higher  sea level. A marginal factor but another consideration…

[jm1220]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which  would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level.

The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport  forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.
 

 

I’m sure the back bays are getting wrecked pretty good from this. There’s wave/water rise over multiple tide cycles plus full moon. 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS gives us a pretty good soaking tomorrow too before the main event. I wonder if that's right because some of the mesoscale models say we're not gonna see much rain during the day tomorrow. 

It'll be very banding oriented rather than steady rain. 

[Rjay]

Upton now has Freeport in the major category for 3 high tide cycles.  

[jm1220]

Just now, Rjay said:

Upton now has Freeport in the major category for 3 high tide cycles.  

Wonder if it’s at the point it’s worth getting out if you’re in a vulnerable area. 

[NJwx85]

This will come in waves with a steadier rain likely Sunday.

[MANDA]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which  would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level.

The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport  forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.
 

 

I'd also keep an eye on western L.I. Sound.  Depending on exact wind trajectories water could be piling into the west end of the sound.  Been concerned about that for several days.  As of now forecasts are for mid range moderate but room for higher if the winds can go more ENE for a time.  Just something to watch.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I'd also keep an eye on western L.I. Sound.  Depending on exact wind trajectories water could be piling into the west end of the sound.  Been concerned about that for several days.  As of now forecasts are for mid range moderate but room for higher if the winds can go more ENE for a time.  Just something to watch.

Agreed-a few days ago the track suggested north winds now it's NE or even ENE

[Michael05192016]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I'd also keep an eye on western L.I. Sound.  Depending on exact wind trajectories water could be piling into the west end of the sound.  Been concerned about that for several days.  As of now forecasts are for mid range moderate but room for higher if the winds can go more ENE for a time.  Just something to watch.

Sandy lite v.2 - "Sandy's weaker cousin"

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This will come in waves with a steadier rain likely Sunday.

Well, there won't be much subway service Monday morning if that verifies.

[TriPol]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wonder if it’s at the point it’s worth getting out if you’re in a vulnerable area. 

You mean issuing evacuations? There's not enough time. Absolutely NO model had this slamming into central NJ 48 hours ago. Not even the EURO or EURO AI.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Well, there won't be much subway service Monday morning if that verifies.

What about airport service on Sun/Mon at the 3 major NYC area airports? How did past comparable storms affect service?

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

You mean issuing evacuations? There's not enough time. Absolutely NO model had this slamming into central NJ 48 hours ago. Not even the EURO or EURO AI.

long range meso HRRR and NAMs did

[mob1]

This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline. 

[Intensewind002]

Was gusting around forty here earlier, a friend of mine told me there was a wire down on wellwood ave in Lindenhurst already

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline. 

Jesus. A hybrid storm taking the same path Sandy took. More rain, much smaller wind field.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m sure the back bays are getting wrecked pretty good from this. There’s wave/water rise over multiple tide cycles plus full moon. 

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.