Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro going to be closer. Going to just miss the phase. Out to 75.

Nvm its way ots but has a norlun trough.

The norlun can be big.

[Wxbear25]

Man, what I wouldn’t give to just get those two S/W’s to interact just a few hours earlier… 

[Brasiluvsnow]

11 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

Long time lurker, first time poster.

 

I think the writing is on the wall with this one, unfortunately.

GFS vs ECMWF/EPS/Euro-AI/UKM does not bode well 9 times out of 10.

Barring a major shift on the 12z euro, i think the only thing that keeps this threat alive is if we see increased support for the GFS solution on the EPS. If the EPS holds serve or even shifts east then I think a GFS solution is off the table.

Regardless, this will be a close call and could easily still turn into an advisory-level event for some.

Welcome to the insanity,,,,,,,,

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The norlun can be big.

it's down in the DELMARVA on the Euro

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

it's down in the DELMARVA on the Euro

 

Its further north on the 12z run. 

JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston

[LVblizzard]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its further north on the 12z run. 

JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston

If all of JB's predictions came true everyone in the northeast would double or triple their yearly snow totals.

[SnowGoose69]

This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was.  Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its further north on the 12z run. 

JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston

He’s a joke. It still works for him to get the clicks and subscriptions? 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its further north on the 12z run. 

JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston

Here's his tweet on the storm:

I don't disagree with his sentiments concerning the GFS. It remains perplexing that when it came to the last major upgrade of the GFS, NCEP did not adopt the top-flight 4dVAR initialization scheme that is used by the ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET. Weaker initialization puts the model at a disadvantage from the start. Occasionally, the model scores, but far more often than not, other models provide better solutions.

Finally, a significant or major hit has been a low probability, high-impact scenario. Unfortunately, as the lead time has diminished the overall probability of such an outcome has not increased. If anything, it has decreased. There's still uncertainty, but time is running out.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was.  Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance.

Its all about timing 

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its all about timing 

They’ve all been for the past 3+ years and the fails keep piling up way faster than the blown 10-20” calls. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its further north on the 12z run. 

JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston

A broken clock can be right. Hopefully this time it is 

[winterwx21]

The Euro does give us some snow Sunday but it's during the day with temps slightly above freezing. It would be a colder surfaces deal. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

A broken clock can be right. Hopefully this time it is 

No one is getting 10-20 lol.   

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its further north on the 12z run. 

JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston

^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol 

[Tatamy]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The norlun can be big.

No one seems interested in it…

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The Euro does give us some snow Sunday but it's during the day with temps slightly above freezing. It would be a colder surfaces deal. 

yippee!   Would rather it be sunny and dry than  that.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

No one seems interested in it…

This might turn into a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. 

[mob1]

JMA (for what it's worth)

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yippee!   Would rather it be sunny and dry than  that.

If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This might turn into a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. 

White rain unless majority of it falls at night like this past Sunday 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol 

jb is wrong, unless this is snark....this is unlikely anything to worry about. 

[TJW014]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This might turn into a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. 

It's sun angle season. Nothing's sticking until nighttime unless it's on existing snow piles that are still around

[jerseyshorewxguy]

Euro hasn't been good at all

are you repeating the same sentence over and over again in hopes that it will become reality?


.

[Nibor]

44 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Man, what I wouldn’t give to just get those two S/W’s to interact just a few hours earlier… 

You’d probably get something similar to the gfs. 

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

You’d probably get something similar to the gfs. 

Exactly why I want it so bad lol

We need the Canadian curling team to boop them closer together

[cleetussnow]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall

How about you look at thermal profiles.  Report back your findings.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. 
 

Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong. 

[Nibor]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. 
 

Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong. 

Imagine what he’ll become the day he gets a big one right? *Shudders*

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

White rain unless majority of it falls at night like this past Sunday 

Its February not march