It's coming 1/31-2/1

[SHELEG]

When to we get to phase 2 and 3?

[nycsnow]

Recon mission up, should be on 00z

[Jt17]

Bernie not on board with this one……


.

Get your shovels ready.


.

[Roger Smith]

Bernie Rayno and Doctor No _ now playing at a theater near you.

[EastonSN+]

57 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

This is the best EPS run of today. Better than 00z 6z 12z.

Just another tick north....

[psv88]

People forget what it was like 2014-2015…we had feet of snow on the ground for a month. Looked like the arctic with no real melts. 
 

2013-2014 were also frigid. Those years were something special for cold/snow

[psv88]

This is February 2014 from when I lived in northern Nassau. Like 7 storms worth of snow. Just buried. 

[Wannabehippie]

19 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

When to we get to phase 2 and 3?

Feb 5th for phase 2, 15th for phase 3.

 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

We are currently in MJO phase 8 heading to phase 1, which is supposed to be "good" for east coast snow storms right? But then to phase 2/3, which is no bueno for east coast snow.

We just had a really nice clean phase 8 look IMHO. Here's some bullet points supporting that thought from the CPC MJO update yesterday. Western hemisphere is phase 8. I think this potential will respond in kind given a little lag time. Which lands squarely on this period. There's research that supports phase 8 being the most favorable for Northeast US snow events. Beyond all of this, there is potential of a strat PV split. It's on some of the guidance. Probably at least partially due to the MJO transit through the Pacific. We just had a precursor pattern for that as well, which brought Sunday's event. So will just need to monitor developments. 

 

• Following a long-lasting, incoherent MJO, the RMM based index increased in amplitude, emerging from
the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific) and
becoming highly amplified.
• Once eastward propagation began, the signal quickly
moved into the Western Hemisphere.
• The signal had been showing propagation in the
upper-level VP anomalies before it was seen in the
RMM index and may be “catching up”. 

[Prue11]

34 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Bernie not on board with this one……


.

He’s been wrong with nearly every storm this year 

[Irish]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

He’s been wrong with nearly every storm this year 

Really?  Is that true?!

[Prue11]

4 minutes ago, Irish said:

Really?  Is that true?!

All his forecasts were either too low or too high for my area

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

He’s been wrong with nearly every storm this year 

 

never liked the guy. used to like henry marguisity. that was about it. the guy who was the rutgers phd at accuweather argued vociferously that the.  'snowicaine ' would not affect the nyc nj area much; he also thought 2/6/2010's bands would reach into middlesex county. he was wrong both times. he did answer questions online though and in emails. nice enough fella.

[Nibor]

From the NE forum. #2 analog on CIPS is Boxing Day. 

[Big Jims Videos]

1 hour ago, dseagull said:

Dont get me wrong, as Im on Barnegat Bay... But id like to see a region-wide blockbuster event.  We cashed out in 2018 and 2022, on two bombs that left NYC feeling robbed of potential. 

2018 probably top 3 favorite of all time. So underrated. 

[SACRUS]

20 minutes ago, Nibor said:

From the NE forum. #2 analogue on CIPS is Boxing Day. 

 

EWR 
1.  0 
2. 24.3
3. 0
4. 0
5. 11.2
6. 27.8
7.  6.5
8.  0
9.  1.4
10. 24.5
11. 0
12. 8.4
13/ 10
14. 15
15. 10

 

 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR 
1.  0 
2. 24.3
3. 0
4. 0
5. 11.2
6. 27.8
7.  6.5
8.  0
9.  1.4
10. 24.5
11.

 

 

What a spread lol

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, Nibor said:

From the NE forum. #2 analogue on CIPS is Boxing Day. 

A number of those were high-impact storms i.e., 12/20/2009, 12/27/2010, 2/9/2013, 1/24/2016, 1/29/2022, etc.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR 
1.  0 
2. 24.3
3. 0
4. 0
5. 11.2
6. 27.8
7.  6.5
8.  0
9.  1.4
10. 24.5
11.

 

 

Boom or bust basically with a chance at a 6-12" SECS

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, jdj5211 said:

Bernie not on board with this one……


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As noted earlier, IMO writing the event off completely goes beyond what can reasonably be supported by the models and their ensembles. Indeed, there has been some improvement during the 18z cycle. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As noted earlier, IMO writing the event off completely goes beyond what can reasonably be supported by the models and their ensembles. Indeed, there has been some improvement during the 18z cycle. 

Agree plus it's coming

[MANDA]

18z CMC and Euro got 9/50 dropscondes in their data set... 0z suite should have them all
 

Lifted from NE forum.

[jm1220]

40 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This is February 2014 from when I lived in northern Nassau. Like 7 storms worth of snow. Just buried. 

Or Jan-Feb 2011. That snowpack was epic. 

[Irish]

22 minutes ago, Nibor said:

From the NE forum. #2 analogue on CIPS is Boxing Day. 

I'm sure this is valuable in some regard.   

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Or Jan-Feb 2011. That snowpack was epic. 

Central Park had 53 consecutive days of snowpack that winter. Most of the days were 6 inches plus in depth. They didn't set the record but it was close.

If Don sees this he would probably know what the record is for consecutive days. Off the top of my head I'm thinking it's 58?

[TJW014]

Twitter link won't post correctly but 18z GFS, GEM, and Euro received some dropsonde data (13-14 dropsondes per ContentWxGuy.) 0z guidance should have data from all 50 dropsondes

 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

Twitter link won't post correctly but 18z GFS, GEM, and Euro received some dropsonde data (13-14 dropsondes per ContentWxGuy.) 0z guidance should have data from all 50 dropsondes

When you copy the link replace the 'x' with 'twitter' and paste it.