It's coming 1/31-2/1

[nycsnow]

Was hoping to wake up to see some better trends on 0z euro and 6z icon

oh well 

[nycsnow]

Gfs way southeast 

[Neblizzard]

14 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Was hoping to wake up to see some better trends on 0z euro and 6z icon

oh well 

I think it’s time to write this storm off.  If closes off too far to our south .   Onto the next one.. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs way southeast 

Well it was fun tracking but this one is done. 

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

I think it’s time to write this storm off.  If closes off too far to our south .   Onto the next one.. 

Unlikely for this to offer a good surprise for the forum, but I'd wait to see if the energy from the kicker winds up more strung out and further WNW.  Very curious to see the 500mb depictions at 12z and 00z.  Im not buying the low closing off down in Georgia.  Regardless, fun one to track.  

[dseagull]

If 06z Euro brings it NW, you're going to see the mother of all Bi-Polar mood swings on here. 

[nycsnow]

10 minutes ago, dseagull said:

If 06z Euro brings it NW, you're going to see the mother of all Bi-Polar mood swings on here. 

I just really wanted to see the snow piles and the chaos that ensued with how much snow is around but what are ya gonna do 

[dseagull]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I just really wanted to see the snow piles and the chaos that ensued with how much snow is around but what are ya gonna do 

Traditionally, this is where you would want the models losing the storm.  Not sure how well we can forecast the upstream kicker yet.  The primary, on the other hand, really looks like it winds up wayyyy too far into the deep south.   Still not buying it.  By 12z tomorrow, we can either throw in the towel or get ready to throw snow. 

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

I think it’s time to write this storm off.  If closes off too far to our south .   Onto the next one.. 

Too early to write it off but trend isnt good.

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too early to write it off but trend isnt good.

I have never seen a storm this far south and west of us on computer models just suddenly come back and hit us, which would be about 150+ mile shift west.

[MJO812]

Just now, TriPol said:

I have never seen a storm this far south and west of us on computer models just suddenly come back and hit us, which would be about 150+ mile shift west.

Congrats DT ?

[sussexcountyobs]

How can anyone write this off already? The western energy is still off shore, and has not been sampled. Hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to fly and sample this when it comes ashore tonight or tomorrow morning. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

15 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Tonight I think it’s full OTS on operationals but ensembles only get marginally worse. Tomorrow night, thinfs will start to tick back

I don’t know who this is but I’m not giving up hope until tonight 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

How can anyone write this off already? The western energy is still off shore, and has not been sampled. Hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to fly and sample this when it comes ashore tonight or tomorrow morning. 

Recon data was in 00z last night 

[donsutherland1]

The 1/28 0z ECMWF develops and tracks an impressive 500 mb low in Tennessee through Alabama and Georgia and then off the southeast coast. That track would favor an out-to-sea solution, as shows up on the surface maps. Model skill in resolving synoptic details should be improving today and tomorrow. So, if these solutions begin to lock in with the improved-skill output later today and especially tomorrow, the risk of snow in such cities as Philadelphia and New York City would diminish on Sunday.

It's worth noting that about 20% of individual EPS members showed 6" or more snow in New York City and just over 10% had 10" or above amounts. In short, a significant snowfall, while decreasing in probability, is still a low probability not zero probability outcome.

On a separate note, temperatures have been somewhat higher than modeled yesterday and again this morning. Friday and Saturday still look to be the coldest days with highs struggling toward 20°, lows in the single digits in New York City and some subzero lows in the colder suburbs. The opening week of February will likely start off dry but still colder than normal.

[MJO812]

Nice shift west by the euro

[MJO812]

Still in the game

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still in the game

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I said Euro not AI. Troll someone else.

[UKWeatherGeek.]

FYI we just had a rare Euro>GFS shift for the most recent storm in UK.

[jm1220]

I’d want to see a positive trend by tonight 0z to be confident of a major hit here. Good that with even a track SE of the benchmark some snow makes it to the coast/city as it unravels. As others mention this has to occlude later and upper low track further north. 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

I have never seen a storm this far south and west of us on computer models just suddenly come back and hit us, which would be about 150+ mile shift west.

I have, 12/26/10, and it happened on 12/24.

[North and West]

.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Too early to write it off but trend isnt good.

Things would have to start trending today. 

Unfortunate if they don't because upcoming pattern looks mainly cold/dry with light northern stream systems only. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Things would have to start trending today. 

Unfortunate if they don't because upcoming pattern looks mainly cold/dry with light northern stream systems only. 

Have to think some system gets us before this cold regime really lets up even if this one doesn’t. Maybe we can get lucky with another clipper. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Have to think some system gets us before this cold regime really lets up even if this one doesn’t. Maybe we can get lucky with another clipper. 

Guidance is showing several fast moving clippers coming through, maybe one or two amplifies and we get a moderate event otherwise probably 1-3" type stuff. 

[cleetussnow]

Ova 

[Snowlover11]

Euro slams cape cod.

[TriPol]

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I have, 12/26/10, and it happened on 12/24.

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

[liwxfan]

Ain't over for Long Island. Like the 6z euro.