February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[clueless]

We shall hug the NAM

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

To anyone who's superstitious on a science based forum - Your pennies are no good anymore, go find every fountain in the area and toss them in! 

Even the most sciency of scientists have their moments...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauli_effect

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think the gfs is on its own for a northern band, there is cold press on the other models that will keep it central or south. Upside is what the NAM is showing, not surprisingly. Still a C-2” event, but whatever falls will stick immediately and be a more impactful event than if there was just bare grass on the ground.  

Southern/central VA 1-3 inch events have been my specialty this year

[dailylurker]

I started a thread for this weak ass pos lol

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z AI Euro looks active with chances with most of this snow taking place between day 11 & 15.

I wish we could ban all ai snow maps. They have not been correct once.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yeah its all about the snow. Not more road salt on your vehicle or yet another day schools will close lol.

I don't think there is any room for more salt on my Jeep.

That's why they have lots of carwash's 

[GreyHat]

Pretty dry for the area up to Feb 16 on Euro, Euro AI, GFS with the exception GFS AI is real wet.

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Pretty dry for the area up to Feb 16 on Euro, Euro AI, GFS with the exception GFS AI is real wet.

Did you check the ensembles for that time period? We don't really go by op models beyond day 5-7 or so

[GreyHat]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Did you check the ensembles for that time period? We don't really go by op models beyond day 5-7 or so

No I didn't, thank you for reminding me.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

No I didn't, thank you for reminding me.

No prob. I like the effort you're putting into comparing model forecasts, though. 

[GreyHat]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No prob. I like the effort you're putting into comparing model forecasts, though. 

I looked at the EPS/GEFS through Feb 7 and there isn't any real qpf.

I also looked at those to the end of their model runs and still look bleak but didn't post as they show grey in the area, still not much for qpf.

[snowmagnet]

3 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Funny thing about that is even Pensacola got a better snow (10") last year than we have had in 10 years here

We had around 10 inches last year in the first week of January. And a really nice storm in 2022. I think that one was Jan. 3rd. 

[mitchnick]

Looks like Heisy's concern yesterday about the ridge bridge have merit looking at the Eps and Geps post day 10. Gefs are better if that's any consolation. 

[Heisy]

Looks like Heisy's concern yesterday about the ridge bridge have merit looking at the Eps and Geps post day 10. Gefs are better if that's any consolation. 

Yeah it looks pretty likely that it is going to happen, question becomes, can we recover? The -PNA looks pretty rock solid. I bet we see some old fashioned Lakes cutters mid month/second half of the month. This is normal for any winter to go through thaw periods. It’s not a bad time for it to happen if we can get a reload by March. See what happens

[Heisy]

Yeah it looks pretty likely that it is going to happen, question becomes, can we recover? The -PNA looks pretty rock solid. I bet we see some old fashioned Lakes cutters mid month/second half of the month. This is normal for any winter to go through thaw periods. It’s not a bad time for it to happen if we can get a reload by March. See what happens

Also the PV split, SSW event gives us a good chance at a good March

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it looks pretty likely that it is going to happen, question becomes, can we recover? The -PNA looks pretty rock solid. I bet we see some old fashioned Lakes cutters mid month/second half of the month. This is normal for any winter to go through thaw periods. It’s not a bad time for it to happen if we can get a reload by March. See what happens

That timing is unfortunate, though...that PD weekend barrier is historically a real thing when it comes to getting a big snow. Was hoping we could get something on the pattern "relax". Usually if it doesn't happen by then you gotta wait until March to try your luck (ack). Hard to expect it...we could still get some smaller events though to try and finally get to average.

[Jersey Andrew]

21 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it looks pretty likely that it is going to happen, question becomes, can we recover? The -PNA looks pretty rock solid. I bet we see some old fashioned Lakes cutters mid month/second half of the month. This is normal for any winter to go through thaw periods. It’s not a bad time for it to happen if we can get a reload by March. See what happens

Wasn’t that-PNA responsible for destroying what was supposed to be an epic February last year? Who knows if you can trust long range modeling.

[Heisy]

I’m not a SSW expert, just relaying info from mets on Philly discord. We generally thaw during SSWs, which makes sense since a thaw is now showing up on the modeling over the next 10+ days coinciding with the SSW

Account for the normal lag effect from a SSW we’re probably below normal or normal temps near beginning of March.

[Steve25]

Punting to March? Yikes

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

27 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it looks pretty likely that it is going to happen, question becomes, can we recover? The -PNA looks pretty rock solid. I bet we see some old fashioned Lakes cutters mid month/second half of the month. This is normal for any winter to go through thaw periods. It’s not a bad time for it to happen if we can get a reload by March. See what happens

I think the period around or immediately prior to mid-month was always looking like a relax for a bit (not necessarily a torch though), but trends were that the 2nd half of February into March would become more favorable.  And as you say, the "classic" Lakes cutter or similar system is certainly not an uncommon event.  Obviously, nobody can (or should be) looking to repeat the level of cold we've had the past week or so and extending through the upcoming week.  But as others have mentioned, keep some solid highs up in Canada lurking around and we can perhaps tap into that at an opportune time.  In other words, it shouldn't be a Pac Puke shit the blinds situation from my understanding.  I also thought that a somewhat negative to neutral PNA isn't necessarily a bad thing if we can have at least a somewhat cooperative North Atlantic (which again, thought I heard that should generally remain decent) and get some bootleg confluence to the northeast.

All in all, I get the sense that at least some in here are essentially ready to write off this entire month already.  I'm in no way claiming that we're "guaranteed" a good event, or a HECS, or anything like that (we all know it could just end up in the shitter!)...nor am I trying to imply that's what you're saying here...but everyone was so bummed out at missing what turned into the big southeast snow event that the mood in here has become pretty grim in a lot of ways.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Punting to March? Yikes

March snow blows goats. Snow then it’s 60.  If we don’t score at all in Feb then…well I do t know but it’s not good

i

[Heisy]

Wasn’t that-PNA responsible for destroying what was supposed to be an epic February last year? Who knows if you can trust long range modeling.

I’m certainly not saying we can’t score something during -PNA. Just going off of what the models are showing today. I just find it interesting how it’s pairing up perfectly with the SSW that is likely to happen and how they generally play out

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z EPS appears to show only brief temporary ridging for our region beginning on the 9th & it’s gone by the 13th this run.

We look to be entering a period of transience.

[Terpeast]

Looks like a big change/flip in the long range over the last 24 hours. One run does not make a trend, but 3 00z/12z runs in a row just did a resounding repudiation of the freezing february pattern. Interestingly, AI ensembles led the way on this. 

We may be able to thaw this glacier out by presidents day weekend, or if its not as warm as progged, weekend after. 

Unfortunately we may have lost big snow chances for the next 2 weeks, and by the time it gets cold again with the SSW effect and weak MJO 3, we’d be running out of time by that point. Not saying it won’t snow then, but more likely to be smaller to moderate events. 

[Ji]

troubling trend on Euro Weeklies. We had a an ice box from Feb 13-20 just a few days ago. it did th same crap in december where is showed snow and cold all december and missed the severe warm up right before the holidays

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That timing is unfortunate, though...that PD weekend barrier is historically a real thing when it comes to getting a bigger big snow. Was hoping we could get something on the pattern "relax". Usually if it doesn't happen by then you gotta wait until March (ack). Hard to expect it...we could still get some smaller events though to try and finally get to average.

3 of Baltimores 17 biggest snowstorms came in March. Baltimore has had snows of 22”, 16” and 13” in March.  And 2 years ago I ran the numbers and showed that Baltimores odds of getting a 4”, 8” and 12” Storm peak the first week of February but then only decrease slightly until you get to the 3rd week of March when they drop off a cliff.  

You say this every year. Every single year. And one proven it’s false like 3 times and you still say it. Why?  
 

 

[Heisy]

March snow blows goats. Snow then it’s 60.  If we don’t score at all in Feb then…well I do t know but it’s not good
i

Ha see I’m the opposite. Im a snow lover that hates the cold, give me a 60s and sun all month and one HECS mixed in would be heaven for me.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

17 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Wasn’t that-PNA responsible for destroying what was supposed to be an epic February last year? Who knows if you can trust long range modeling.

I think that was the previous year, Feb. 2024.  We saw epic patterns show up consistently in the extended ensembles and in the Euro weeklies.  There was a lot of hype (understandable) and a lot of high feeling toward the end of January for a remarkable wintry February.  Then almost suddenly as February began, the ensembles all shit the bed and showed a crap pattern...which is exactly what happened, it was uneventful and warmer than normal and there was nothing in March either.

The thing last year (Feb. 2025) really was that one event later in the month where every model was hammering us (and the GFS joined the party late), only to whisk it away at nearly the last minute not that far in advance.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z EPS continues with a workable look through the 15th & then week ridging shows at the end of the run.

There is no punting until March on the EPS…

[Terpeast]

And btw, the pattern we just had really delivered. We just didn’t have all of the luck on our side. Could just as easily have had 2 blizzards in one week, so if I see Jan 2026 analog again, I’ll by honking loudly about it.