February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

You will take your 1” and love it. It’s not like you’re used to more. 

My fiance begs to differ 

[WxUSAF]

Shitty frontal passage is back on the menu boys!

[Cobalt]

12 minutes ago, Nomz said:

It is January 30th. DCA has close to 10 inches on the season. We have a full month+ of winter left. Remember that last week the first runs showing snow in our area were on Monday for what ended up being a Saturday night/Sunday morning event.

To date, DCA's winter has been colder (35.9F) and snowier (8.5") than last winter, as well as the winters of 2013-14, 2014-15, and the analog of 2005-06. Missing to the South is a gut punch, but it's sort of surprising we haven't had more misses like that so far. The winters of 2017-18 and 2021-22 were loaded with such storms, as well as atrocious short range model implosions.

 

If you want true misery, 2000-01 and 2008-09 were both colder to this point and had a combined snow total of 6.3 inches to show for it. 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

To date, DCA's winter has been colder (35.9F) and snowier (8.5") than last winter, as well as the winters of 2013-14, 2014-15, and the analog of 2005-06. Missing to the South is a gut punch, but it's sort of surprising we haven't had more misses like that so far. The winters of 2017-18 and 2021-22 were loaded with such storms, as well as atrocious short range model implosions.

 

If you want true misery, 2000-01 and 2008-09 were both colder to this point and had a combined snow total of 6.3 inches to show for it. 

I genuinely thought you were bullshitting with 2013-14 being less snowy than this year to date, but they only received 8.1" of snow. February and March were actually the two snowiest months, each recording about a foot. Very interesting!

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

To date, DCA's winter has been colder (35.9F) and snowier (8.5") than last winter, as well as the winters of 2013-14, 2014-15, and the analog of 2005-06. Missing to the South is a gut punch, but it's sort of surprising we haven't had more misses like that so far. The winters of 2017-18 and 2021-22 were loaded with such storms, as well as atrocious short range model implosions.

 

If you want true misery, 2000-01 and 2008-09 were both colder to this point and had a combined snow total of 6.3 inches to show for it. 

Don’t know if we’ll get another “big” snow, but I feel very confident we’re not done with snow this winter. 

[H2O]

We're done.  Models suck.  Congrats OBX and Disney World.  This cold is a waste.  D4+ storms never work out.

 

Am I doing it right?

[Nomz]

Also, I wouldn't do this if I got mad at the weather. It's the fucking weather. I think it's cool. Nothing more than that.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know if we’ll get another “big” snow, but I feel very confident we’re not done with snow this winter. 

we might have to start including ORF in the snow contest tie breaker.  Funny when I lived there for 10 years it mostly sucked for snow. If you are a snow lover in ORF you need the patience of a monk.  

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know if we’ll get another “big” snow, but I feel very confident we’re not done with snow this winter. 

We forget how difficult it is to get large snowfalls in the metros during La Ninas. Another 5"+ snowfall at DCA would make this winter join 2024-25 as the only Ninas to feature two such snowfalls since 1995-96. The airport has had only 7 snowfalls exceed that mark in 21st century La Ninas, and the largest was 9.3", a mark we've exceeded 5 times in El Ninos during that span!

[Weather Will]

If we are depressed, anyone look at the WB latest EURO for SE VA?  NWS Forecast is 7-12.  

[SnowenOutThere]

38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You 100% sure know why.  

If it’s based on this weekend they are completely different setups. Besides this weekend was never a good chance! It had a high upside but the ens barely ever had a 30%+ of an inch! 

[Heisy]

Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

no new snow just epic cold and enduring snow pack.  two outta three ain't bad...got the natural gas bill yesterday so apparently there is a cost to a cold winter

That’s what “Meatloaf” said!

[Ji]

Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well

Old news

[Kevin Reilly]

I don’t think we can know much about this week coming up until the development and strengthening of the coastal to our southeast is resolved.  The models are still trying to figure out what to do even now with that coastal.  Anything beyond 100 hours is an absolute crap shoot? 
 

In the meantime enjoy cold, dry, and snowpack with a screaming west-northwesterly flow of blocking. 

[frd]

Just cold, nothing to get hyped about on the snow front. Maybe after this period there might be something. 

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well

Reading the room, I'm just guessing there isnt much interest in analysis about the feature that's fucking things up in the upper levels to make it not snow again. But thanks!

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Old news

 

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well

Yeah. It was on the Gfs and I  posted on it in a response to Stormtracker. 

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I don’t think we can know much about this week coming up until the development and strengthening of the coastal to our southeast is resolved.  The models are still trying to figure out what to do even now with that coastal.  Anything beyond 100 hours is an absolute crap shoot? 
 

In the meantime enjoy cold, dry, and snowpack with a screaming west-northwesterly flow of blocking. 

Agreed. Also if this weekend’s coastal ends up weaker than currently forecasted, way end up with less confluence to the NE and allow next week’s minor event to come back up north. Again, minor is the operational word. Upside was never very high with that one. The Feb 10-15 window is another to keep an eye on. 

[CAPE]

Good thing about being busy at work all week- I haven't had much time tor tracking anything run to run and get invested. I saw a couple decent runs on the GFS and maybe one on the Euro, but otherwise it's looked like maybe a skiff of snow along a cold front.

[WxUSAF]

February will obviously start BN/much BN. Don’t know yet how it will finish. But with BN December and January already…what was the last DJF with all 3 months BN??? Got to be a long time…

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI EPS.  Precip. Anomalies look better as we head through the second week of February and it still looks cold enough.

[Fozz]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

February will obviously start BN/much BN. Don’t know yet how it will finish. But with BN December and January already…what was the last DJF with all 3 months BN??? Got to be a long time…

I’m going to guess 2013-14. Although even Dec 2013 had a late month blowtorch after a very good start north and west.

ETA: Dec 2013 ended up slightly AN in the airports, so I think the last time all three months were BN was in fact 2009-10. And before that, 2002-03.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

February will obviously start BN/much BN. Don’t know yet how it will finish. But with BN December and January already…what was the last DJF with all 3 months BN??? Got to be a long time…

Wish we had the snow to show for it. 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I genuinely thought you were bullshitting with 2013-14 being less snowy than this year to date, but they only received 8.1" of snow. February and March were actually the two snowiest months, each recording about a foot. Very interesting!

That’s because 2013-14 (especially early on) was very frustrating for the immediate metros while those who live N/W kept getting buried.

[snowfan]

13/14 finished strong. BWI doubled climo and Dulles surpassed 50".

[adelphi_sky]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

13/14 finished strong. BWI doubled climo and Dulles surpassed 50".

If this cold trend can continue, we have until mid-March for a big dog storm. We can even eke out flizzards in April. Though the snow cover may not hang around for a week. Great to have had a few snow events so early with winter only half over. 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

If this cold trend can continue, we have until mid-March for a big dog storm. We can even eke out flizzards in April. Though the snow cover may not hang around for a week. Great to have had a few snow events so early with winter only half over. 

Historically we got until Feb 20th or so for a big dog. Even MORE rare and MORE difficult to do in March! Not to say we couldn't get smaller events though...

[Steve25]

36 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I’m going to guess 2013-14. Although even Dec 2013 had a late month blowtorch after a very good start north and west.

ETA: Dec 2013 ended up slightly AN in the airports, so I think the last time all three months were BN was in fact 2009-10. And before that, 2002-03.

Interesting examples. At BWI:
 

2002/03 had 15 inches going into February. Finished with 58.1. 
 

2009/10 had 27. Finished with 77. 
 

Even though it doesn’t technically count I’ll throw it in since it was close. 2013/14 had 12.7. Finished with 39. 
 

BWI is currently at 13.1 I believe. Obviously we can’t guarantee this February will be BN, but if it is, it’s in fairly good company to have a backloaded finish. 

[somecallmetim]

I would have loved a blizzard this weekend as much as anyone, but I'm also looking out at epic piles and 6 inches of glacier that's only down one inch in the 6 days it's been around. That's remarkable for here. Not everyone cares about pack though, so to each their own.