February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[mitchnick]

Ukie has nothing for us or anyone else for that matter.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie has nothing for us or anyone else for that matter.

no new snow just epic cold and enduring snow pack.  two outta three ain't bad...got the natural gas bill yesterday so apparently there is a cost to a cold winter

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie has nothing for us or anyone else for that matter.

One of these days man 

[SnowenOutThere]

41 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I assumed you meant south like North Carolina, not Central VA. If we want to treat the GFS like a normal model, this run is okay with me. In the game

Not sure why we’re crashing out so hard right now. It’s nearly 6 days away and will take time to resolve. Besides if this storm goes north we rain! Frankly it being to our south is the best shot we get something frozen even if we aren’t the jack zone 

[Ji]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Not sure why we’re crashing out so hard right now. It’s nearly 6 days away and will take time to resolve. Besides if this storm goes north we rain! Frankly it being to our south is the best shot we get something frozen even if we aren’t the jack zone 

its not going to rain...why is it showing snow down there in the carolinas

[GreyHat]

I mentioned this before as the other day the GFS showed the system going south and OTS. Those runs showed the system coming down from Canada which maybe a reason. I say that because the GFS 18z run the other day didn't show the system coming down from Canada and so the system came west to east and we got snow. Now the GFS is showing that system again coming down from Canada. 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Exactly.  We need A+B+C divided by 20 x .16 sigman minus e squared worked by a dozen cows and an eclipse.  It is what it is.  I'll track but not getting my hopes up.   Euro already doing the same thing as before.  Color me spooked.

EPIC sig material

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

its not going to rain...why is it showing snow down there in the carolinas

If you look at past runs like yesterday that had the storm further north we had an 850 low in the Ohio valley which was advecting warm air northward. It’s a delicate balance and id rather be on the southern end than the rainy northern end.

[Ji]

when this trends south--this will finally be ours

[TSSN+]

It will be over Cuba soon 

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS says no - south. Might join @stormtracker and say goodnight on this one soon!

[midatlanticweather]

19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It will be over Cuba soon 

 

 

2013/2014 vibes, but not good for us this time!

 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS says no - south. Might join @stormtracker and say goodnight on this one soon!

Looks better than 6z at least?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Looks better than 6z at least?

No. It's really weak too. Not more than 1" east of the mountains. 

[NorthArlington101]

Looks better than 6z at least?

Juiced up a little bit, yeah. Still fairly fringed.

Belongs in the other thread really but AIFS ticked better for our southern folks for Saturday. Somewhat decent tick given its usual stubbornness in the last few hours. Might mean an extra inch for someone. But if you buy it verbatim really only a super cool storm for eastern NC/barrier islands at this point.

[North Balti Zen]

On 1/28/2026 at 1:17 PM, North Balti Zen said:

Maybe go ahead and unbuckle...

bouncing around the back of the car like it is the 1970s...

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Juiced up a little bit, yeah. Still fairly fringed.

Belongs in the other thread really but AIFS ticked better for our southern folks for Saturday. Somewhat decent tick given its usual stubbornness in the last few hours. Might mean an extra inch for someone. But if you buy it verbatim really only a super cool storm for eastern NC/barrier islands at this point.

It’s ok the clipper at 264 will save us!
 

Till it ends up over Atlanta. lol 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No. It's really weak too. Not more than 1" east of the mountains. 

a bit IMBY-centric but it did juice up compared to 6z. 50 miles North or so?

vs 6z

Doesn't end up meaning much for DC-North but it did go further South which at least opens up future possibilities. Very early in the game.

[MDSnow93]

In 10+ years of reading this forum I've never seen such low morale for seemingly no reason. We've got snow pack that's not going anywhere. We've got more cold air than I can remember seeing in a while. People are locking on to model runs 5+ days out just because it doesn't show what they want. It's pretty pathetic if I'm honest. We have smaller storms to track, and if you want a big dog, I'm no met, but in my experience those tend to come as the cold air retreats and we transition to a warmer period. Just my (worthless) 2 cents.

[Weather Will]

Going further out and really at range, day 10-11 on the WB EURO AI is the next threat.  

[stormtracker]

47 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not sure why we’re crashing out so hard right now. 

You 100% sure know why.  

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Going further out and really at range, day 10-11 on the WB EURO AI is the next threat.  

Need that in Quebec 

[Steve25]

3 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

In 10+ years of reading this forum I've never seen such low morale for seemingly no reason. We've got snow pack that's not going anywhere. We've got more cold air than I can remember seeing in a while. People are locking on to model runs 5+ days out just because it doesn't show what they want. It's pretty pathetic if I'm honest. We have smaller storms to track, and if you want a big dog, I'm no met, but in my experience those tend to come as the cold air retreats and we transition to a warmer period. Just my (worthless) 2 cents.

I’m with you for my area in specific, but I think we do need to keep in mind that this community isn’t just Central Maryland or northern areas. If I’m not mistaken, the Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland peeps got mostly left out of our last storm because they were too far south/east, and NOW they’re too far north/west for this coastal storm. So I really can’t blame those people for being very bitter at the moment. 

[Jersey Andrew]

4 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

In 10+ years of reading this forum I've never seen such low morale for seemingly no reason. We've got snow pack that's not going anywhere. We've got more cold air than I can remember seeing in a while. People are locking on to model runs 5+ days out just because it doesn't show what they want. It's pretty pathetic if I'm honest. We have smaller storms to track, and if you want a big dog, I'm no met, but in my experience those tend to come as the cold air retreats and we transition to a warmer period. Just my (worthless) 2 cents.

A lot of people in here thought February was setting up for a 2010 redux especially with long stretch of brutal cold. Will we really waste the month if PV suppresses everything to the south?

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

a bit IMBY-centric but it did juice up compared to 6z.

vs 6z

Doesn't end up meaning much for DC-North but it not trending further South at least opens up future possibilities. Very early in the game.

I was looking at snowfall on Pivotal, not that it matters.

 

[NorthArlington101]

Only able to see precip total maps, but the non-AI euro has a northern band and a southern band kind of situation for Wednesday. Good chunk of Maryland squeaks out 1” or so - rest is too south for most of us. 

[Nomz]

It is January 30th. DCA has close to 10 inches on the season. We have a full month+ of winter left. Remember that last week the first runs showing snow in our area were on Monday for what ended up being a Saturday night/Sunday morning event.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I’m with you for my area in specific, but I think we do need to keep in mind that this community isn’t just Central Maryland or northern areas. If I’m not mistaken, the Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland peeps got mostly left out of our last storm because they were too far south/east, and NOW they’re too far north/west for this coastal storm. So I really can’t blame those people for being very bitter at the moment. 

They have gotten hit WAY more than us the last 5 years. The morale in here is embarrassing. The coach must be John Harbaugh. 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only able to see precip total maps, but the non-AI euro has a northern band and a southern band kind of situation for Wednesday. Good chunk of Maryland squeaks out 1” or so - rest is too south for most of us. 

Crushed! 
 

[ravensrule]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Crushed! 
 

You will take your 1” and love it. It’s not like you’re used to more.