February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Nomz]

Just now, Ji said:

This one def trending north

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Nomz said:

Seeing it written out like that is even funnier, hahaha

[Ji]

OBX may get 12-16 inches maybe even more. I wanted DCA to get that snow! I CRAVED pow over top of the Glacier SO BAD!

Please stop already. What are you 12?

[Ji]

Euro is a weenie wet dream haha for the run

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Please stop already. What are you 12?

Yep. When it comes to deep pow on top of catastrophic ice in Washington DC, YOU BETTER BELIEVE I am only 5 years old. And, I'm damn PROUD of the fact.

And I still want 30 inches of powder snow on top of that glacier in the DMV. You guys are tough. You'll love it.

I STILL worship snow to the total exclusion of everything else and everybody else. And I pray to the snow gods for deep snow right on top of that Washington DC Glacier!

[TowsonWeather]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

You are entitled to Your Opinion and I am entitled to mine.

 My opinion is only about the truth.

Since it's "consistently the best model" in your opinion, I'm very happy that it's finally catching on about 6 hrs. late to a threat on Wednesday/Thursday.   

Small, but it's there. 

 It might die and it might live but thankfully, spring is on the way.  

LOL - facts aren't opinions. It consistently IS the best model. That's an objective fact backed by years of study and data collected and analyzed by people who gace forgotten more about weather than you or I will ever know. Go look it up. Educate yourself a little. Does that mean it's ALWAYS right? Of course not. Hopefully you're able to grasp that distinction - but at this point I have some doubts.

And if your "opinion" is based on nothing more than vibes and nonsense, as yours happens to be in this case, it's connection to "the truth" is about as tenuous as your understanding of how to assess weather models. You can have the "opinion" that the earth is flat - that is absolutely your right. But you'd still be wrong. Comically so. Just as you are here.

[stormtracker]

Insomnia got the best of me..back up.

lol GFS looks more like Euro.  Of course it does.  But this time it's positive.  This seems to be trended a bit better with each run. 3-5  It's a decent snowfall, with heavier stuff staying to our.....take a guess.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Insomnia got the best of me..back up.

lol GFS looks more like Euro.  Of course it does.  But this time it's positive.  This seems to be trended a bit better with each run. 3-5  It's a decent snowfall, with heavier stuff staying to our.....take a guess.

AI GFS is, for the 2nd run in a row (maybe me but I didn't check), is a much bigger event as in most, if not all, from DCA north is snow. Pivotal doesn't offer snowfall maps for AI GFS, so here's precip. Basically, makes it a decent coastal that passes to our south.

[Heisy]

AI GFS is, for the 2nd run in a row (maybe me but I didn't check), is a much bigger event as in most, if not all, from DCA north is snow. Pivotal doesn't offer snowfall maps for AI GFS, so here's precip. Basically, makes it a decent coastal that passes to our south.

Yeah Ai has had it multiple runs, however, last night it was farther NW. type of system where I’m okay with it being farther SE currently

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI GFS is, for the 2nd run in a row (maybe me but I didn't check), is a much bigger event as in most, if not all, from DCA north is snow. Pivotal doesn't offer snowfall maps for AI GFS, so here's precip. Basically, makes it a decent coastal that passes to our south.

Well damn...that looks really good.  Keeps getting better with time.  If the Euro didn't show a similar evolution, I'd be skeptical.

[stormy]

2 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

LOL - facts aren't opinions. It consistently IS the best model. That's an objective fact backed by years of study and data collected and analyzed by people who gace forgotten more about weather than you or I will ever know. Go look it up. Educate yourself a little. Does that mean it's ALWAYS right? Of course not. Hopefully you're able to grasp that distinction - but at this point I have some doubts.

And if your "opinion" is based on nothing more than vibes and nonsense, as yours happens to be in this case, it's connection to "the truth" is about as tenuous as your understanding of how to assess weather models. You can have the "opinion" that the earth is flat - that is absolutely your right. But you'd still be wrong. Comically so. Just as you are here.

Does that diatribe help you to feel better?  You need something.

Probably a study in creative imagination would soothe your senses.

Have a good day my friend. We will chat again under better circumstances.

 7 degrees and cloudy at 5:30

[Heisy]

I thought the 00z euro looked better at H5 than it actually produced at the surface.

[Terpeast]

I think AI-GFS did okay with the last storm here, it was almost in lockstep with the Euro AIFS. So I won't kick it out of bed with that precip depication...

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI GFS is, for the 2nd run in a row (maybe me but I didn't check), is a much bigger event as in most, if not all, from DCA north is snow. Pivotal doesn't offer snowfall maps for AI GFS, so here's precip. Basically, makes it a decent coastal that passes to our south.

I realized that it had a bit of a longer event so attached is the 48hrs precip maps which show additional qpf up north and west.

[Terpeast]

LWX casual mention of the event next week.

 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of light snow mid next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

A shortwave-trough is fcst to dive from the Northern Plains into
the mid Mississippi River Valley Tue afternoon into Wednesday.
This feature is then forecast to become a closed low and induce
sfc cyclogenesis across the Southeast. The Canadian model shows
the weakest and most southern solution while the ECMWF the
strongest and a more favorable track. This latest 00Z EC
solution is a significant break in continuity to prior runs that
showed a weaker solution and snow amounts between a trace and
one inch. The EPS and EC AIFS suggest that the deterministic
Euro is likely overdone and show a much weaker solution. The EPS
shows the probs of 0.01" of QPF in the 60-70% range and of 0.1"
QPF in the 30-50% range across the area in the 12Z Wed-00Z Thu
time frame.

[Terpeast]

Euro AIFS shows a weaker and further south track than the AI GFS. 

[Duca892]

This weekend and next week looked markedly similar lmfao

[Climate175]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Deja Vu

 

I’m going to lower my expectations lol, but it will still be worth a track to see if it may trend in our favor. 

[TSSN+]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Euro AIFS shows a weaker and further south track than the AI GFS. 

We aren’t getting nothing. Everything keeps getting crushed by this block. Just going to remain damn cold but dry it looks like. 

[snowfan]

6z gfs a bit south but colder.

 

[stormtracker]

6z Euro south and a miss.  Probably Over before it began.

[GreyHat]

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Euro AIFS shows a weaker and further south track than the AI 

Of course both GFS and AIGFS 6z show positive tilt and weak low, plus the L coming out of Canada.

The good thing is our area  is in the mid 30s M - F before dipping back below 32F. That will help get the ice off the roads over in our area.

[WxUSAF]

39 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Euro AIFS shows a weaker and further south track than the AI GFS. 

Blech. In 3 runs it went from a nice event to nothing. 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We aren’t getting nothing. Everything keeps getting crushed by this block. Just going to remain damn cold but dry it looks like. 

That's certainly my fear at this point. But it goes back to December when I  said I was concerned with central and southern VA being the jackpot because I  couldn't recall a decent winter up here when then we're bullseyed first and that you want to be in the bullseye with the first storm because that's often an indicator of the season. There's still time, but the block really suggests at this point storms will continue to gravitate to our south.

[snowfan]

The globals….especially the GFS and Euro are really dead set on keeping us in this cold pattern. We barely get above freezing thru mid February. Now, the AIGFS really wants to start pumping the SE ridge after next week and gets us to a winter thaw….or areas just to our south…so we’ll have to see how it plays out. 
 

CPC also likes chances of continued BN temps on the EC centered over NE.

 

[GreyHat]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Blech. In 3 runs it went from a nice event to nothing. 

It was never ours since the GFS has shown it from the beginning to be weak and OTS in both 6z & 12z yesterday.  I wander if the system coming out of western Canada has anything to do with it. 

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z Euro south and a miss.  Probably Over before it began.

Correct lol 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z Euro south and a miss.  Probably Over before it began.

Maybe the GFS will be right  LOLOL

[Ji]

6z Euro south and a miss.  Probably Over before it began.

Euro gave us something but yea too much northern stream interference. It’s also been all over the place

[Terpeast]

Wild that y'all are giving up on this event next week. There's still plenty of disagreement among models, and most give us something. That coastal miss this weekend really got to you, huh?