February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but isn't that essentially the same mechanism shoving it OTS as what's happening this weekend?

Positive tilt doesn't do us any favors but we're in trending phase. Every suite shows the shortwave digging further south. Which is the most important piece because having a low track overhead isn't going to work. The current -AO tank wasn't modeled well so it makes sense that this is trending further south. 

It also has a gulf connection so moisture can be tapped well west of us. It's very unlikely to morph into a significant event but it has potential for something modest. Like .25-.50 qpf all snow or something like that. Nothing else worth watching rn so it's all we got. 

[SnowenOutThere]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 

 

 

Now this is something that could work out for us! If it stays NS dominant then I have trouble thinking of a storm strong enough to be above a 2-4 (which isnt bad!) and not run into mixing problems. However, if we get a wave pass south of us we could actually get a 3-6 or even more if everything goes well. Still not an ideal setup so anything major is probably off the table - I mean look at that Great Lakes Low - but I want to see this trend continue.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Now this is something that could work out for us! If it stays NS dominant then I have trouble thinking of a storm strong enough to be above a 2-4 (which isnt bad!) and not run into mixing problems. However, if we get a wave pass south of us we could actually get a 3-6 or even more if everything goes well. Still not an ideal setup so anything major is probably off the table - I mean look at that Great Lakes Low - but I want to see this trend continue.

Euro op just took a sledge hammer and pounded it flat lol. Good times!

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro op just took a sledge hammer and pounded it flat lol. Good times!

In fairness not much to even pound

What a mess. We still got time but an outcome like this isn't unlikely. Between this week and next week I'd say they're both events worth watching but def not worth any investment. 

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Guess nobody is paying attention right now - AIFS hits us for @WxUSAF's period

It’s been the most bullish and consistent by far. Not a bad guy to have on the team! #WxUSAFSFP

[baltosquid]

EPS and EPS-AIFS deepened the trough again.

[osfan24]

34 minutes ago, IronTy said:

My winter storms books mention that we often score when the NAO relaxes to a less negative state.  If we're gonna get a big one this year I think it'll be just as this cold pattern is getting ready to flip and then we get our storm followed by warm temps.  

It’s relaxing this weekend and we swung and missed.

[GreyHat]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Positive tilt doesn't do us any favors but we're in trending phase. Every suite shows the shortwave digging further south. Which is the most important piece because having a low track overhead isn't going to work. The current -AO tank wasn't modeled well so it makes sense that this is trending further south. 

It also has a gulf connection so moisture can be tapped well west of us. It's very unlikely to morph into a significant event but it has potential for something modest. Like .25-.50 qpf all snow or something like that. Nothing else worth watching rn so it's all we got. 

It looked like the next couple systems get pushed OTS by the northern systems.

Our area will be in the middle 30s Monday- Friday of next week before staying below freezing again. That's perfect our long range forecast. 

[Jebman]

I hope this thing overperforms somehow and you all get perfectly demolished like Snowshoe.

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

A high temp of roughly 7F on Feb 7th? 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said:

A high temp of roughly 7F on Feb 7th? 

wasting a pant load of cold if something doesn't hit.  we don't get prolonged vodka cold.  shhesssh

[brooklynwx99]

this is pretty striking. retrograding block and a legit 50/50 in place... vort over the Four Corners is making its way under the block

[Nomz]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty striking. retrograding block and a legit 50/50 in place... vort over the Four Corners is making its way under the block

Carolinas get hypeddddd

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

wasting a pant load of cold if something doesn't hit.  we don't get prolonged vodka cold.  shhesssh

Well we’re not wasting it.  I have a bullet proof snow pack and an igloo in my front yard. 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

wasting a pant load of cold if something doesn't hit.  we don't get prolonged vodka cold.  shhesssh

Usually when the north pole falls on top of us, it drives the storm track way down deep in the southeast and suppresses everything.  We'd need a Miller A turning a sharp corner right as Tito's spills over the mountains.  It's been 10 years since one of those.  We're due.

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Carolinas get hypeddddd

It would seem like suppression is not the concern if that depiction holds. This week we have a strong PNA ridge. Not the case in that map. 

[stormy]

2 hours ago, Steve25 said:

The GFS is definitely the worst of the group, but it’s not lost on me that the Euro and its counterparts were the ones that really got us sucked in to this weekends potential before it went poof. 

Thank you Steve!     I well remember Monday morning at 7 am when the Euro buried me with 18 inches of snow!!!!!    I said, no way, it shows the slp too far off-shore.

6 hrs. later the EURO woke up.............. 

[frd]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

wasting a pant load of cold if something doesn't hit.  we don't get prolonged vodka cold.  shhesssh

The cold has been very impressive, even more so with the snow cover, such a deep winter scene that has lasted days.  Yet, it seems that snowfall has not met expectations, at least in my book.   

Certainly the cold is not done yet, and the AO domain remains blocky with yet another PV weakening. 

Thinking the best overall time period for additional snowfall here is from Feb 6 th to the 28 th,  after that there are signs that blocking eases, wavelenghts change and the cold may weaken.   

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

Thank you Steve!     I well remember Monday morning at 7 am when the Euro buried me with 18 inches of snow!!!!!    I said, no way, it shows the slp too far off-shore.

6 hrs. later the EURO woke up.............. 

What is up with your hate boner for the Euro? Look at the two model trend loops below. Monday 00z to Thursday 12z. I even removed the horrible 6z and 18z runs from the gfs loop.