February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[osfan24]

19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

There’s no “easy” way, but having a gulf that’s available for overrunning is the “best” way.

Never get the hype with overrunning events. In theory, seems great but it almost always comes down to us somehow trying to thread this impossible needle between an amped up system that bring temp issues and a colder storm that has no juice.

[bncho]

12z GFS doesn't dislike @WxUSAF's shitty frontal passage

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GFS doesn't dislike @WxUSAF's shitty frontal passage

I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time.

[TSSN+]

It’s only 300 out guys! Lol

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time.

1 day 

[North Balti Zen]

I make a motion that we as a board accept and understand that modeling the atmosphere given its dynamics and fluidness and wetness and dryness and butterfly farts and what not and putting that model in motion and expecting it to be spot on at any point more than 24 hours from any event for any one precise set of locations is a fool's hope and instead use the models for the tools they are to identify potential periods of unsettled weather and plan accordingly.

Do I hear a second?

[Steve25]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

I make a motion that we as a board accept and understand that modeling the atmosphere given its dynamics and fluidness and wetness and dryness and butterfly farts and what not and putting that model in motion and expecting it to be spot on at any point more than 24 hours from any event for any one precise set of locations is a fool's hope and instead use the models for the tools they are to identify potential periods of unsettled weather and plan accordingly.

Do I hear a second?

I think most people can agree to this sentiment but it will never change the fact that people will weenie or deb over specific model results at range. It’s the nature of the game 

[Nomz]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time.

I don't think we should post the GFS inside 4 days; waste of time.

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don't think we should post the GFS; waste of time.

Fixed it for you.

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s only 300 out guys! Lol

 

300 hours out for the GFS is equivalent to the year 2100 for the Euro

[Steve25]

The GFS is definitely the worst of the group, but it’s not lost on me that the Euro and its counterparts were the ones that really got us sucked in to this weekends potential before it went poof. 

[NorthArlington101]

300 hours out for the GFS is equivalent to the year 2100 for the Euro

GFS has been okay on picking up storm signals at range - it had this weekend and the weekend prior. It’s not not worth a look, just don’t trust it with the details.

[T. August]

Not getting snow on snow does suck but I don’t get the negative attitude about the remainder of winter. All of the op runs are showing threats/chances over the next 2 weeks.

[Bob Chill]

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 

 

 

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time.

 

29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s only 300 out guys! Lol

 

Man, fuck the GFS

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 

 

 

 

it's also kinda there on the ICON. more east, just as positively tilted

 

[mitchnick]

For those wishing to enjoy the weekend snows at OBX, might I offer these links:

https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/live-traffic-cams/

http://monumentcam.kdhnc.com/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=1957

The bottom site, Wright Brothers monument cam, doesn't have some certification, but I've checked it out many times instead last 10+ years without a problem. 

[Chris78]

33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

1 day 

6 hours

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

it's also kinda there on the ICON. more east, just as positively tilted

 

god that looks like pure slop

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, T. August said:

Not getting snow on snow

It'll still be snow on snow if next weekend works out for us.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. 

Looks like we've got a shot at all 3 met winter months having below average temps?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 

585dm in Salt Lake City in the dead middle of Winter! Quite a Winter they are having out there in the Rockies and West coast, for a much of the area it's the #1 warmest Winter on record to date (since Dec 1). Makes me nervous about a Stronger El Nino next year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Looks like we've got a shot at all 3 met winter months having below average temps?

Looks like it. We were colder than average last Dec - Feb too, even though I don't know if all 3 months were below average. 

[NorthArlington101]

Guess nobody is paying attention right now - AIFS hits us for @WxUSAF's period

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

585dm in Salt Lake City in the dead middle of Winter! Quite a Winter they are having out there in the Rockies and West coast, for a much of the area it's the #1 warmest Winter on record to date (since Dec 1). Makes me nervous about a Stronger El Nino next year.

Since this year was an east-based Nina, do you think we could make that into a west-based Nino?

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 

 

 

Yeah but isn't that essentially the same mechanism shoving it OTS as what's happening this weekend?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Since this year was an east-based Nina, do you think we could make that into a west-based Nino?

Hard to say if it will be east or west-based, but an El Nino is developing in the subsurface

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. 

And in this case, V-Day and PD are on the same weekend, lol

[IronTy]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. 

My winter storms books mention that we often score when the NAO relaxes to a less negative state.  If we're gonna get a big one this year I think it'll be just as this cold pattern is getting ready to flip and then we get our storm followed by warm temps.