January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[goodwidp]

LWX current map for ice potential, fwiw. 

 

Source: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

 

[nw baltimore wx]

44 minutes ago, mappy said:

My point and click has added snow to Sunday night now 

Saturday night  3-5

Sunday 7-11

Sunday night 2-4

For comparison, here my P & C says

3-5,

6-10,

1-3, respectively.

I’d be thrilled with double digits.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Most of our mixing events over the years are snow to sleet to rain to 40+ degrees.  This is a pretty cool and unique event with a very anomalous arctic airmass.  The fact that plain rain isn’t even in the discussion is cool.  Even if we “only” get 4-5 inches in dc and then ice and then arctic cold it’s still going to be awesome.  True deep winter stuff coming. 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

For comparison, here my P & C says

3-5,

6-10,

1-3, respectively.

I’d be thrilled with double digits.

I hope it works out for everyone! 

[TSSN+]

Here is what I am going with. Obviously just showing snow predictions. 

 

 

[EB89]

Thinking Frederick is in a good spot for once. NWS says

3-7

7-11

2-4

Hoping for at last 12”. Have a 5 year old who has never seen a big one. 

[Wxdavis5784]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

I think we are all good for a foot before a flip. more for you, PSU, highstakes, Mitch, tssn, etc. it wouldn’t surprise me if yall stay pure snow while I sleet

I hope you’re wrong for your sake and right for mine. Good luck regardless! 

[Wxdavis5784]

Just now, mappy said:

Uh thanks?

About the pingers. Hope ya don’t change. Sorry for pulling for ya, I’ll go back to lurking…

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

About the pingers. Hope ya don’t change. Sorry for pulling for ya, I’ll go back to lurking…

Ahhh sorry, no that’s my bad for misunderstanding. Less pingers for all!

[mappy]

Anyway, I hid all the back/forth over that map. Sorry to derail. 

[psuhoffman]

I’ve decided to just pretend the GEFS knows WTF it’s doing

[dukeblue219]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve decided to just pretend the GEFS knows WTF it’s doing

Is there a rogue member or two stretching the mean?

[jayyy]

I’ve decided to just pretend the GEFS knows WTF it’s doing

It’s been sooooo stubborn the past 2-3 days.

[GreyHat]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve decided to just pretend the GEFS knows WTF it’s doing

As crazy this storm has been to track, who knows. 

[TSSN+]

Hrrr only 17hrs from now out storm will have blossomed 

[Quasievil]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve decided to just pretend the GEFS knows WTF it’s doing

I'm going to hug this ensemble because it shows the most snow.

[Weather Will]

WB 9Z NBM para

[snowfan]

Someone....Hopefully many of us.....will be getting a beatdown on Sunday morning.

 

[yoda]

I think most of us are pretty set on getting at least 6" of snow.  What happens after is up to banding location and other intricacies.  As others have mentioned, if we want to get closer to double digit snow amounts in the metros... we want that mix to come closer to 18z

[mitchnick]

Well, 9z Srefs are colder and snowier than 3z for areas at and north of Fredericksburg; southern extent tightened up a bit. We take anything that shows improvement no matter how small.

Just a reminder to those who may not know, Srefs are an ensemble product and not a seperate model.

[GreyHat]

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Someone....Hopefully many of us.....will be getting a beatdown on Sunday morning.

 

That dark blue over central to SNJ looks good. Hard believe the rain out west according to the picture above. 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, 9z Srefs are colder and snowier than 3z for areas at and north of Fredericksburg; southern extent tightened up a bit. We take anything that shows improvement no matter how small.

Just a reminder to those who may not know, Srefs are an ensemble product and not a seperate model.

Mitch haven’t you heard all over Hanover people are saying we getting 2 feet. Man we must be missing something cause people keep telling me I’m wrong for 8-12” it’s going to be 20”+. Too many uneducated people out there believe whatever garbage they hear. 

[aldie 22]

I don't know about anyone else but I have no clue the impact of that much sleet will have. I am not talking accumulations just overall impact. I remember 2007 and being able to walk on top of the snow for a week my dog was pissed. I mean think about it 5-10" of snow and then an inch of QPF as sleet into 20-25 degree temps. That's an intense storm for sure even if the totals aren't prolific

[mappy]

Can we move the app talk to banter?

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Mitch haven’t you heard all over Hanover people are saying we getting 2 feet. Man we must be missing something cause people keep telling me I’m wrong for 8-12” it’s going to be 20”+. Too many uneducated people out there believe whatever garbage they hear. 

I haven't, but I  can't say I  go out socializing very much. Lol

I was at the Walmart last night and they literally did not have 1 gallon of milk left and shelves were half to completely empty.

[Solution Man]

[mitchnick]

Don't know if it's too early for sat pics, but this has an expansive view of the Conus+.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if it's too early for sat pics, but this has an expansive view of the Conus+.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large

Great view of the bowling ball

[Weather Will]

12Z runs are running.  Most important run of 2026 since 6Z....
 

WB 12Z HRRR

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z.  If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros.