Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Not in the amped camp.

Yeah it'll be in complete storm range by 12z tomorrow and become more useful at 18z thu

[Franklin0529]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Yeah it'll be in complete storm range by 12z tomorrow and become more useful at 18z thu

Yea I get it. 

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

The Weather Channel is going all in with 12-18 for North NJ/ NYC and a long duration event. 

I just checked for my area they have me 5-8 Sunday and 1-3 Sunday night and maybe an inch Monday. 6-12” total. I think it’s too early to give any amounts

[TriPol]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, higher QPF events have lower ratios. Warmer air holds more moisture. Warmer air can result in less favorable snow growth in the atmosphere, riming, etc.

Is this true for lake effect snow too?

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Prue11 said:

I just checked for my area they have me 5-8 Sunday and 1-3 Sunday night and maybe an inch Monday. 6-12” total. I think it’s too early to give any amounts

My NWS point and click has no amounts yet, probably the right move at this point.

[WeatherGeek2025]

0z nam vs 18z europe gfs and euro ai same timeframe 

[SBUWX23]

High qpf events doesn't mean you wont have higher than 10:1. I think the point is 20:1 is not easy to do and should not be expected for the majority of the event 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Is this true for lake effect snow too?

Yes. Lake effect snow has very high ratios, because the air mass moving across the lakes is often both frigid. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

High qpf events doesn't mean you wont have higher than 10:1. I think the point is 20:1 is not easy to do and should not be expected for the majority of the event 

i guess the only way to find out is do hourly measurements 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

0z nam vs 18z europe gfs and euro ai same timeframe 

The differences aren't dramatic in terms of overall outcome but def noticeable differences in the low track and timing.

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

My NWS point and click has no amounts yet, probably the right move at this point.

Me either, and I agree it’s the right move. Nobody does even further south in DC area and Virginia. No projected totals are out. What I posted was what TWC was forecasting. 
 

I’ll leave it at its becoming increasingly likely a snowfall greater than 6” is on the table. I wouldn’t throw any amounts until Friday afternoon 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

High qpf events doesn't mean you wont have higher than 10:1. I think the point is 20:1 is not easy to do and should not be expected for the majority of the event 

Yes. For example, on February 12, 2006, 24.1" snow fell with 1.66" precipitation (14.5:1).

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Prue11 said:

Me either, and I agree it’s the right move. Nobody does even further south in DC area and Virginia. No projected totals are out. What I posted was what TWC was forecasting. 
 

I’ll leave it at its becoming increasingly likely a snowfall greater than 6” is on the table. I wouldn’t throw any amounts until Friday afternoon 

I did notice Mount Holly NWS seems to have all snow down to ACY so they don't seem to be buying into the more amped solutions. 

[jm1220]

50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i doubt that happens with this kind of mid-level forcing moving in

Oh sure, if this stays intact it looks good for a few hours at least of couple inch per hour rates. That's a thumper if I ever saw it, and tons of moisture coming into the overrunning dome. 

[Jt17]

Icon a lot better at 0z than it was at 18z!


.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Icon a lot better at 0z than it was at 18z!


.

icon sucks but yes it's about 30 miles south and cooler right where we want it i guess

[donsutherland1]

Nice improvement on the 0z Icon  vs. the 18z run for the NYC area and NJ.

0z:

18z:

[Joe4alb]

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Nice improvement on the 0z Icon  vs. the 18z run for the NYC area and NJ.

 

looks to be mostly snow for the city

[David-LI]

not our region and FWIW, 00z NAM has a lot more precipitation than the GFS in southern states, compared to the 18z GFS at hour 84.

GFS 



NAM

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Joe4alb said:

Primary 3 mb weaker at 0Z, that helps.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Icon keeps snowing all day monday into early tuesday as the new Low develops off the coast of Jersey and throws some moisture our way!

 

great run

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

High qpf events doesn't mean you wont have higher than 10:1. I think the point is 20:1 is not easy to do and should not be expected for the majority of the event 

Whats better for this event ? 10:1 or Kuchera ?

[NJwx85]

The 00z ICON is 12-18” for most with lollies 20”+. And it lingers snow most of Monday.

[Winterweatherlover]

0Z RGEM looks leaning toward the amped camp at hour 84. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 00z ICON is 12-18” for most with lollies 20”+. And it lingers snow most of Monday.

i tried the kuchera, theres some lolis of 24 plus in the NYC burbs lol

[the_other_guy]

I think TWC is okay with 12-18 for N and W at this point. I dont think that’s too much of a limb based on what we are seeing

[Franklin0529]

Yea the icon blows up the coastal an throws a ton of moisture back. Something else to watch for 

[Snowlover11]

Icon!

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i tried the kuchera, theres some lolis of 24 plus in the NYC burbs lol

Yea Icon I don't think is very reliable but Kuchera about 18 for the city, around 2 feet around 84, also 2 feet for Boston.