Major Hurricane Isaias

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The pressure did just rise 13mb between the last two recon passes. Not enough time for it to make a huge difference but it’s starting to weaken pretty quickly now. 

Whoa!  So it did happen at the very last min.  Just delayed from what the HAFS showed earlier. This is non-trivial rise in what, less than 90 min?  From the winds where the pressure was taken, the actual pressure is about 970 mb  That barely supports 85 kt winds in a purely tropical system, which Isaias is not and has not been for some time.

Operationally, I can see it higher when it makes landfall, post-analysis though?  Katrina its rapid weakening phase originally was 120 kt at landfall, but they reduced it to 110 kt.  Lili was 90 kt, but reduced it to 80 kt later.  Also, when a TC is rapidly weakening near landfall, NHC often keeps it higher for winds that reality b/c they do not want to have ppl et their guard down too much,  They clearly did this w/ Milton.  So obvious when you saw FL and SFMR winds, and the assigned intensity.  I find that disingenuous.  We all look at the same data and see things for what they are.  Don't insult our intelligence!

So models had the right idea, just timing was off, but you really can't expect them to nail down something as mesoscale as an inner core of HU as to when it starts to degrade quickly.

[MN Transplant]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol obviously new to Gulf halfcanes

I assume many people thought that this would be a halfacane at landfall, but this is more impressive than the radar presentation would lead on.

[ROOSTA]

Well modelled IMHO. 

A huge difference between a mid-latitude winter snowstorm and a tropical system of any CAT.

Hurricanes are a whole different beast. I would take a 2 footer over 100+ mph. hurricane. Different adrenaline rush too.

[vortex95]

18 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Maybe the interesting thing here is that the EWW text has no mention of wind speeds at all.  It might simply be that the NWS offices are ignoring the 115mph sustained guidance and going with an EWW for all major hurricane eyewalls.

If so, they are violating their own directive.  Why have thresholds for warnings if they are just deliberately ignored?  Why not lower the criteria for a svr tstm warming for winds less then 58 mph in gusts b/c they can still do damage?  How about pea size hail?  A lot of pea size hail can devastate crops.  Issue a warning for that?  It is slippery slope. There comes a point of diminishing returns.  Excessive alerts eventually become counterproductive.

 

[vortex95]

24 minutes ago, Interstate said:

How do you figure... it still did not make landfall yet and the eye is pretty much gone on the radar.  It almost looks like it has begun extratropical transition.

It has been in ET transition for at least the last 6 hr.  Once the srn part of the eyewall was gone, that was the first signal.

[vortex95]

22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Some gusty winds and heavy rain as the remmant core pushes ashore

Sounds like @CoastalWx response!  It's not snow, so MEH! 

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

If so, they are violating their own directive.  Why have thresholds for warnings if they are just deliberately ignored?  Why not lower the criteria for a svr tstm warming for winds less then 58 mph in gusts b/c they can still do damage?  How about pea size hail?  A lot of pea size hail can devastate crops.  Issue a warning for that?  It is slippery slope. There comes a point of diminishing returns.  Excessive alerts eventually become counterproductive.

 

I generally agree with you, especially being in the mid-Atlantic where a severe warning is verified on a 35mph gust that takes down a dead tree branch, but I don't think that this one matters too much.  I might argue that 115mph sustained is a too high of a marker for an EWW.  That's an EF2 tornado sustained!  

 

Hopefully this cam stays up.  https://maps.app.goo.gl/5GBwpLHVo3nQd6CH8

 

[vortex95]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Pensacola 92mph

 

METAR KPNS 092353Z 04038G80KT 2 1/2SM VCTS RA BR BKN065 OVC085 19/18 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 05080/2346 LTG DSNT SE-W SLP903 P0029 60156 T01940178 10217 20194 58141

Look at the disparity from sustained to gusts.  In a minimal HU, NHC will say "max winds sustained 65  kt with gusts to 80 kt"  Standard gust factor over water.  However, over land, that difference becomes much larger!
 

[NavarreDon]

PDS Flood Emergency for Coastal Okaloosa County,


.

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Well modelled IMHO. 

A huge difference between a mid-latitude winter snowstorm and a tropical system of any CAT.

Hurricanes are a whole different beast. I would take a 2 footer over 100+ mph. hurricane. Different adrenaline rush too.

You and @CoastalWx have so much in common it sounds!   Want to know how much a snow weenie he is?  Last winter, when he *finally* got 6" of snow in a storm after an excruciating 4 years w/o one at his house, he goes "it looks VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL out there!"  I never thought I'd see those two words used together!

[NJwx85]

https://www.threads.com/share/BAU6zWmE9q/

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I generally agree with you, especially being in the mid-Atlantic where a severe warning is verified on a 35mph gust that takes down a dead tree branch, but I don't think that this one matters too much.  I might argue that 115mph sustained is a too high of a marker for an EWW.  That's an EF2 tornado sustained!  

 

Hopefully this cam stays up.  https://maps.app.goo.gl/5GBwpLHVo3nQd6CH8

 

One SVR LSR report pet peeve of mind is "wires down."  A LTG strike can do that!

Just over time, it seems issuing warnings have become looser and looser as to criteria.  I recall last summer, they issued a flash flood warning for the DC metro even before the line of tstms got to the metro!  Given a line can quickly weaken as to rainfall rates, that is putting the wagon in front of the horse..
 

[ROOSTA]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

You and @CoastalWx have so much in common it sounds!   Want to know how much a snow weenie he is?  Last winter, when he *finally* got 6" of snow in a storm after an excruciating 4 years w/o one at his house, he goes "it looks VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL out there!"  I never thought I'd see those two words used together!

Scott, Ray, Ginx... have met them all. Truth be told I'm a transplant from MA. Why I moved, don't ask! Deep down shhhh, I live for a good snow. First tropical system after moving lost power for a week...that sealed it for experiencing named storms.

[NavarreDon]

Last half hour has been the worst, definitely close to hurricane sustained with some higher gusts.


.

[MANDA]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 100057
TCUAT4
 
Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
800 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

...WATER LEVELS RISING RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST AS DANGEROUS 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREAD 
INLAND...
...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City 
Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet above 
mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in 
that area. 

A wind gust to 102 mph (164 km/h) with a sustained wind of 62 mph 
(100 km/h) was recently reported at Pensacola City Hall.

 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 86.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

[MN Transplant]

Looks like landfall will be on Miramar Beach, which means Destin will stay on the left side.  If there is any surge, it looks like it would be directed to some areas that have state park land, which is a plus.

[MN Transplant]

Mesonet station XSRS Santa Rosa Sound DB127 recorded sustained winds of 84 mph with a measured wind gust of 116 mph.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=MOB&sts=202610100045&ets=202610100045&settings=1110100
 

[Torch Tiger]

 

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

I assume many people thought that this would be a halfacane at landfall, but this is more impressive than the radar presentation would lead on.

let's not go overboard.   looks like a weakening mid-range cat 1, at least to me

[GaWx]

Check this out as of 9PM EDT at Destin with center just offshore likely just to their SE based on NE wind:

DESTIN LGT RAIN 71 70 96 NE39G67  29.08 FOG

That’s 984 mb.