Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The Euro is THAT good.  Always shows no storm this year and it's been right!  LOL

Its been trash but it has the eps and gefs on the side.  Still a very delicate situation. 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The Euro is THAT good.  Always shows no storm this year and it's been right!  LOL

We’ve gotten snow but from storms that typically don’t favor us like the super SWFE on 1/25 and the clippers. Our bigger ticket storm types have failed just like last winter and ever since Jan 2022. We lucked out for once getting non-coastal storm snow. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO.

There are no trends

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO.

Seems reasonable. 10% chance of warning level or above

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems reasonable. 10% chance of warning level or above

Euro is alone right now. Its 50 50 right now.

[MJO812]

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

they stole my headline

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its been trash but it has the eps and gefs on the side.  Still a very delicate situation. 

and all the players are not on the field yet and have not been sampled properly the  southern energy doesn't enter the west coast till tomorrow morning

[kat5hurricane]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are no trends

All the major models were showing a big snowstorm at 12z yesterday outside of the Euro. They all trended towards the Euro today starting at 0z last night. Is it an overall trend or just a blip, time will tell, but I do know that they're a lot less enthused than they were yesterday while the Euro was never enthused. 

[Irish]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

that 12Z solution would work for me- lets not get greedy

Sorry, I'm greedy!  The weather will turn out how it turns out, but I'll never hope for less... EVER!

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is alone right now. Its 50 50 right now.

Very rare for us to get a SECS/MECS without the Euro showing it 4 days out

[Jt17]

All the major models were showing a big snowstorm at 12z yesterday outside of the Euro. They all trended towards the Euro today starting at 0z last night. Is it an overall trend or just a blip, time will tell, but I do know that they're a lot less enthused than they were yesterday while the Euro was never enthused. 

The GFS and Canadian are closer to 12z yesterday than they are to the Euro now last night they were basically complete misses by 0z. Ukie almost got there too but couldn't turn the corner enough.


.

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

All the major models were showing a big snowstorm at 12z yesterday outside of the Euro. They all trended towards the Euro today starting at 0z last night. Is it an overall trend or just a blip, time will tell, but I do know that they're a lot less enthused than they were yesterday while the Euro was never enthused. 

read this Upton AFD -the 12Z models started trending away from the EURO - I don't think the 12Z EURO received all the new data because of that continued snowhole it showed at 0Z is still there at 12Z

AFD from KOKX

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very rare for us to get a SECS/MECS without the Euro showing it 4 days out

EURO has been alone and wrong before - and usually comes on board late in the game sometimes- NWS has been relying on the NBM alot lately

[Nibor]

at lobe

Less ridge amplification and that lobe over New England being further west resulted in that 12z euro run.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very rare for us to get a SECS/MECS without the Euro showing it 4 days out

It showed several inches 4 days before the last event .

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

at lobe

Less ridge amplification and that lobe over New England being further west resulted in that 12z euro run.

Yup. Get that out of the way and our ULL has space to breath and pump heights which slows the whole thing down

that feature being there keeps the flow too fast and helps to drag everything east 

[hudsonvalley21]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

read this Upton AFD -the 12Z models started trending away from the EURO - I don't think the 12Z EURO received all the new data because of that continued snowhole it showed at 0Z is still there at 12Z

AFD from KOKX

Recon flights might give a better answer in tomorrow runs 

NOUS42 KNHC 171825
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0125 PM EST TUE 17 FEBRUARY 2026
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z FEBRUARY 2026
         WSPOD NUMBER.....25-079 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
       A. 18/1800Z, 19/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 33WSE IOP33
       C. 18/1700Z
       D. 8 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 25.0N 150.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, 40.0N 125.0W, AND 25.0N 
          125.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/1430Z TO 19/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 19/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 34WSE IOP33
       C. 18/2000Z
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 150.0W, 48.0N 150.0W, AND 48.0N 
          125.0W
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 18/2030Z TO 19/0230Z

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC 
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 
       20/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

    4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
       FOR THE 21/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

    5. REMARK: THE NOAA 49 MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 25-078 FOR THE
       18/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME WILL NOT FLY. (AMENDMENT)

$$
KAL

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Recon flights might give a better answer in tomorrow runs 

NOUS42 KNHC 171825
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0125 PM EST TUE 17 FEBRUARY 2026
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z FEBRUARY 2026
         WSPOD NUMBER.....25-079 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
       A. 18/1800Z, 19/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 33WSE IOP33
       C. 18/1700Z
       D. 8 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 25.0N 150.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, 40.0N 125.0W, AND 25.0N 
          125.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/1430Z TO 19/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 19/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 34WSE IOP33
       C. 18/2000Z
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 150.0W, 48.0N 150.0W, AND 48.0N 
          125.0W
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 18/2030Z TO 19/0230Z

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC 
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 
       20/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

    4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
       FOR THE 21/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

    5. REMARK: THE NOAA 49 MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 25-078 FOR THE
       18/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME WILL NOT FLY. (AMENDMENT)

$$
KAL

[ILoveWinter]

33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very rare for us to get a SECS/MECS without the Euro showing it 4 days out

The Euro is a fantastic model but it’s not infallible and has been on an island / wrong before. 

[hudsonvalley21]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NOUS42 KNHC 181734
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EST WED 18 FEBRUARY 2026
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z FEBRUARY 2026
         WSPOD NUMBER.....25-080

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 78
       A. 20/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 10WSC IOP34
       C. 19/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 25.0N 180.0W, 40.0N 180.0W, 40.0N 160.0W, AND 25.0N 
          160.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/2030Z TO 20/0230Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC 
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 
       21/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC 
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 
       22/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
KAL

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The Post needs to up its game. Here's a revised headline: 'Nuclear bomb cyclone' could bring feet of snow to NYC this weekend.

Unfortunately, there's no escape from hype.

[Roger Smith]

The key to this getting back to being a major coastal storm seems to be in the handoff from the Colorado-New Mexico low which still has some structure, to the dying wave that drifts east through the Gulf states on Saturday. There is almost nothing left of the vorticity or energy at that point. So when it reaches a more favorable location it is basically starting from a very low energy point and doesn't really get going (on most guidance) until it is leaving the Delmarva coast. This at least gives some areas a snowfall event but to get a big storm this needs to be deepening over SC and NC not waiting until it's over the Atlantic. And even there, you could get a bigger event if there's a deeper 500 mb low to phase with it. 

I am moderately optimistic there is enough time left to see those sorts of improvements, the low is just approaching the California coast tonight and won't be inland until Thursday, won't be into southern Colorado until Friday. Usually when there's a big coastal event these southern lows have at least moderate intensity crossing the south central states so that's where to be looking for improvement, I believe. 

 

[Roger Smith]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Post needs to up its game. Here's a revised headline: 'Nuclear bomb cyclone' could bring feet of snow to NYC this weekend.

Unfortunately, there's no escape from hype.

At the moment it's more like a shrapnel flesh wound cyclone. 

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Post needs to up its game. Here's a revised headline: 'Nuclear bomb cyclone' could bring feet of snow to NYC this weekend.

Unfortunately, there's no escape from hype.

Almost as bad as yelling “fire” in a movie theater.

[David-LI]

I know it's the NAM at 84 but it's looking like it's going to be OTS.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The key to this getting back to being a major coastal storm seems to be in the handoff from the Colorado-New Mexico low which still has some structure, to the dying wave that drifts east through the Gulf states on Saturday. There is almost nothing left of the vorticity or energy at that point. So when it reaches a more favorable location it is basically starting from a very low energy point and doesn't really get going (on most guidance) until it is leaving the Delmarva coast. This at least gives some areas a snowfall event but to get a big storm this needs to be deepening over SC and NC not waiting until it's over the Atlantic. And even there, you could get a bigger event if there's a deeper 500 mb low to phase with it. 

I am moderately optimistic there is enough time left to see those sorts of improvements, the low is just approaching the California coast tonight and won't be inland until Thursday, won't be into southern Colorado until Friday. Usually when there's a big coastal event these southern lows have at least moderate intensity crossing the south central states so that's where to be looking for improvement, I believe. 

 

so now casting begins Friday watching satellite- radars surface reports out west  et. etc and then points east 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I know it's the NAM at 84 but it's looking like it's going to be OTS.

yeah that strung out northern junk getting in the way - no phase - flat etc. etc, and the ridge too far east in the Rockies

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I know it's the NAM at 84 but it's looking like it's going to be OTS.

It’s just showing a flat, fast moving open wave….doesn't even have a surface low reflection 

[Brian5671]

As Yogi Berra said, it's getting late early (For this one)   Time to move on....