Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

To be fair the icing potential, which will cause the biggest impacts is substantial and covers a massive region. 

This storm is a very big deal for many. We've dealt with a lot worse but those south will see historic winter weather. 

I totally agree about the south, just not our area.

[Mo Snow]

Has NWS given any reasoning why they are so bullish on amounts?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Better press so far

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Has NWS given any reasoning why they are so bullish on amounts?

Yes, they think it stays mostly snow. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I haven’t been out; Covid.


.

Feel better- that’s nasty.

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Yes, they think it stays mostly snow. 

I think what they mean is, has there been a discussion and explanation why they think it stays mostly snow?

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Has NWS given any reasoning why they are so bullish on amounts?

Here's their latest AFD:

As strong high pressure retreats to the NE late Sat night into
Sunday, an expansive winter storm will impact the area from then
into Mon. Primary low pressure moving into the TN valley on
Sunday should dissipate while a secondary low forms near Cape
Hatteras and the VA capes, and then moves to a position just
inside the 40N/70W benchmark. Snow should begin in the NYC metro
area after midnight Sat night and spread NE to the rest of the
CWA by daybreak, with some accumulation of 1-2 inches possible
by daybreak for the NYC metro area. Heavy snow is then likely
daytime Sunday into Sunday evening via strong front-end H7-8
frontogenetic and thermal forcing aided by an anticyclonic upper
jet to the north. Given the cold air mass in place, snow ratios
look to be on the high side (15:1) at the onset, and then
settle down a little closer to 12:1 as heavier precip arrives
and the low to mid levels slowly warm.

Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains
possible enough warm air could intrude aloft to force a brief
mix with sleet and/or freezing rain Sunday night, especially for
NYC and Long Island. Have only mentioned a slight chance of
this occurring, and at any rate the damage will have been done
well before then as far as meeting 6+ inch snowfall amounts.

Total QPF for the event should be roughly between 1.0-1.5
inches. Watch mentions potential for at least 6-12 inches with
potential for 12 or more inches. The above QPF with higher snow
ratios yields widespread potential accumulations of over a foot.

As the coastal system exits north and east into Monday, the
deepening low and an inverted surface trough may allow for
some additional light accumulation much of the day as well,
though heavy snowfall should be over by that point.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I think what they mean is, has there been a discussion and explanation why they think it stays mostly snow?

Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva. While liquid QPF will be lower in the northern zones, the higher snow ratios will result in higher snow amounts in those areas. The main issue continues to be howmuch mixing will occur and how that will affect snow accumulations. While the overall average looks to be 12 to 15 inches, it is also quite possible for accumulations to be less, generally on the order of 8 to 12 inches from around Philadelphia south, with even less in southern Delmarva and along the extreme southeast New Jersey coast.

[Wxbear25]

Definitely more confluence north of the region on the 00z NAM thus far vs 18z and especially 12z.

Coupled with a flatter ridge east of it and less interaction thus far between the s/w and the longwave trough, it seems improved, but too early to be 100% certain

[Tatamy]

37 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That was an unusual event fairly well forecasted at very long lead times. I remember seeing a graphic on CBS or NBC 6 days before the event with the entire east coast highlighted with 1-3 feet written on the screen. I've never seen anything like that since.

They had the emergency alert tones coming on over the radio when the updates were being provided for that storm.  It seemed a bit creepy.

[Jt17]

These are the NWS maps from this afternoon/evening:

The 9.6 inches was until 7 PM *Sunday* from Upton, while Mt. Holly showed around 15 inches to 7 AM *Monday*. Upton later posted a similar map with around 15 out to 7 AM Monday. 12-18 has been the theme from most forecasts. Thus far they aren't buying the sleet being as big of a problem plain and simple. Could change it course


.

[Franklin0529]

Nam looks?? Colder at hr 48

[Franklin0529]

Definitely colder 

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

The 9.6 inches was until 7 PM *Sunday* from Upton, while Mt. Holly showed around 15 inches to 7 AM *Monday*. Upton later posted a similar map with around 15 out to 7 AM Monday. 12-18 has been the theme from most forecasts. Thus far they aren't buying the sleet being as big of a problem plain and simple. Could change it course


.

So I did a careful read and it seems they think there will be plenty of sleet and maybe even plain rain, but a lot of snow first, 8-12 on the low end. They think this storm means business. That’s mt holly. Upton was like, yeah sleet but enough damage will have been done by then.


.

[SACRUS]

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Winterweatherlover]

expect the nam to do a lot of weird things over the next 24-48 hours, some things people will like and some they won't lol

[SACRUS]

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Definitely colder 

Not aloft 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Not aloft 

Looks like 700 an 850 shifted south 75 miles or so?  But it looks dry 

[SACRUS]

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Looks like 700 an 850 shifted south 75 miles or so?  But it looks dry 

No it doesnt. Mid layer warmth.

Primary hangs around longer 

Yikes

[winterwarlock]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Prue11]

Some places in the mid south will be seeing an ice storm similar to 1994. This could be catastrophic for them 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[KeithB]

33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

More like terrified….


.

Yes. I know people that are actually scared! As if our lives are at risk staying home for a 10 to 18 inch storm. For me, if I could have any amount of snow I chose.....I would pick very high and risk the collateral damage that ensues. I would go....hmmm...40 inches

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

No it doesnt. Mid layer warmth.

Primary hangs around longer 

Yikes

I see now. Definitely not whatcha want 

[SACRUS]

1/23 00z NAM total QPF storm



Total snow / sleet (10:1)

[wthrmn654]

My sister's who's pregnant in spring hill just south of Nashville is in for a icy disaster