Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

thats why I posted this little gem of a link - Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary mass hysteria - all milk and bread sold out for next to nothing in accumulation

The March 2001 nightmare. Some members probably have no recollection. Others might not have been born yet.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
242 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

WL GO AHD AND ISSUE WSW FOR ENTIRE FA FOR 3D PD. AVN/ECMWF 
CONSISTANT AND SHOWG MAJOR LO PRES EFFECTG FA SUN AFTN THRU AT LEAST 
TUE MRNG. THINKG IN XS OF A FT OF SNW...ALNG WITH 25 TO 30 MPH 
WNDS...IE NR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...SUN NGT THRU TUE MRNG. THIS 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRNGST STM SINCE THE JAN 96 BLIZZARD. 
THE ETA AND NGM HAVE COME OVR TO THE AVN/ECMWF SOLN AS WELL AS THE 
NOGAPS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SHOWG A MORE PROGRESSIVE 
SYSTEM. BUT IF THE SYSTEM GOES VERTICAL...AS IT SEEMS IT WL NOW...IT 
WL STALL BTWN DELMARVA AND CAPE COD...AND CUD HAMMER US THRU TUE 
MRNG. AM CONFIDENT ENUF THAT WE WILL GET SOMETHING THUS WL GO AHD 
AND PULL THE TRIGGR ON THE WSW. ON THE MARINE...THINKG WE CUD GET 
CSTL FLOODG PROBLMS AT TIMES OF HI TIDE...BEGNG SUN NGT. THATS STILL 
4TH PD...AND WL NOT ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH ATTM. BUT ONE WL PROBLY 
BE ISSUED THIS AFTNS PCKG. WRKZFP IN AWIPS BY 3.5 AM. ZNS WIBIS BTW 
4 AND 4.5 AM. ON THE MARINE...WL CONTINUE MENTION OF GLS SUN NGT ON. 
PROBLY BE UP TO SCA SUN AFTN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

DISC: SNOW DEVLPNG DURING SUN AFTN AND WL GET HVY FROM SUN NIGHT 
THRU MON AND BEYOND. WL ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. 
WILL HOLD OFF AN GO WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW. EVE/MID 
CREW WILL HAVE TO UP TO A WARNING. ONLY PROBLEM WITH FCST IS...WL 
OUR ERN L.I. ZONES MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES. FOR NOW DID MENTION 
THE THE MIX COMING IN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001

CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES 
NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE SNW...WET SNW...PERHAPS MIXG 
WITH A BIT OF SLEET DURG THE DAY MON. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON 
MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN 
RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW 
TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. THINKG IT WL 
BE A WET SNW...PEHAPS A 5 TO 1 RATIO CSTS AND 1 TO 8 INLND. EVEN SO 
WITH 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQ EQV...TRANSLATES TO 10 TO 18 IN. PLACES 
INLND WL SEE 2 PLUS FT OF SNW. THINKG THAT ANY WARMG WL BE OFFSET BY 
EVAP COOLG. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001

CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES 
NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE WET SNW...BCMG SLEET MON NGT IN 
STG ERLY WND. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS 
ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN 
BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG 
LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD INCLUDING TOTAL 
SNWFALL SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. BIG QUESTION 
REMAINS ON JUST HOW MILD COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BECOME AND THUS HOW 
MUCH SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE HELD DOWN. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
300 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MDL RUN BTN ETA AND AVN...BOTH ALF AND AT 
SFC. SFC LO CNTR NR THE VA CST TO MOV SLOLY NE TDY AND 
TNGT...GETTING ABREAST OF THE FCST AREA AFT MIDN...THEN RETROGRADING 
AND ESSENTIALLY DOING A LOOP TO THE SW TUE BFR HEADING OUT TO SEA 
TUE NGT AND WED.

PCPN HAS BEEN SLO TO GET GOING AS THE LO BCMS MORE ORGANIZED. SOME 
WRMR AIR WORKING IN ALF HAS RESULTED IN SLEET AND FRZG RAIN MXG IN 
WITH THE LGT SNW THUS FAR...SPCLY NR THE CST. HWVR AS THE LO CNTR 
MOVS FTHR OFF THE CST THIS MRNG THEN TURNS NE THIS AFTN...DRAWING 
COLDER AIR BCK IN...THE MXD PCPN WL CHG TO SNW THRUOUT THE RGN.

AT THIS POINT WL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FCST OF 8 TO 14 INCHES OF 
SNW NR THE CST AND 1 TO 2 FT INLD. HWVR WITH THE LO CNTR DVLPG A BIT 
TOO FAR N...AND EVENTUALLY RMNG NR OUR AREA FOR A GOOD PART OF THE 
EVENT...AM THINKING THAT IF A CHG NEEDS TO BE MADE AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES IT WOULD BE TO REDUCE THE TOTALS A BIT...SPCLY NR THE 
CST...UNLESS WE PICK UP A LOT OF SNW ON THE BCKSIDE. BUT WITH THE 
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LENGTH OF TIME IT WL SNW...WL NOT TAMPER WITH 
THE AMTS NOW.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1005 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001

WILL UPDATE ZONES ASAP. LARGE WARM LAYER AS SEEN ON MORNING SOUNDING.
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...SO AM LOOKING AT 
RAIN FOR A PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SLEET EVEN BEING REPORTED WELL 
INLAND. WILL LOWER OR DROP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO 
HAVE A CONCERN ON NEW FORECAST PATH OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MORE ON 
THAT LATER. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT QPFS REMAINING JUST TO 
OUR NORTH ON WRAP AROUND AND IN BANDS AS LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
235 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

WESTERN SECTIONS (INCLUDING NYC) STARTING TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS 
UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HEAVIEST PRECIP NOW OVER EASTERN ZONES.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH POSITIONING OF LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SOME 
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ETA BRINGS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO JUST NORTH 
OF OUR CWA. THE SFC LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE TO LI...WHICH RESULTS IN 
TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS FOR ANY HEAVIER 
QPF AMOUNTS. I LIKE THE AVN LOOK BETTER AS WRAP AROUND AND PLENTY OF 
UVM OCCURS FROM NE TO SW FROM ROUGHLY BOS VCNTY INTO SOUTHERN CT.
THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN CATEGORICAL SNOW
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LIGHTENS UP AS UPPER SUPPORT AND SFC LOW 
PULLS FINALLY TO THE EAST.

IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS TOO MUCH WARM AIR AROUND H8 
TO OVERCOME...EVEN WITH HEAVY PRECIP APPROACHING. DYNAMIC COOLING 
WILL NOT OVERCOME THIS WARM LAYER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS 
EASTERN SECTIONS. FURTHER WEST...ANY MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW QUICKLY BEFORE 00Z. EAST ZONES WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

SHORT TERM DISC: AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS 
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND. THE LTST LOOP OF 
RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECIP FIELD ABOUT 
40 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/S SOUTHERN FORK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE 
SNOW WITH BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO WRAP-AROUND THE INTENSE 
OFFSHORE LOW. SNOW CONTS TO FALL AT THE RATE OF ARND 1 INCH PER 
HOUR. THE LTST OKX SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001

SHORT RANGE DISC: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF 
MODERATE SNOW CONT TO WRAP-ARND A 981 MB LOW NEAR BOUY 44008 AT 05Z. 
AT 06Z...9.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN MEASURED AT OKX. IN GENERAL...
SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU AT LEAST 09Z AS A MID AND 
UPPER LVL DRY SLOT CONTS TO WRAP WESTWARD ACRS CT.

MEDIUM RANGE DISC: AS STATED IN NCEP/S MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC...THE 
ETA AND NGM MDLS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE AVN 
SOLN...FOR LOOPING THE LOW BACK TWD THE SOUTHWEST. THE ETA AND NGM 
TRACK THE LOW BACK TWD 71W LONGITUDE WHILE THE AVN TRACKS THE LOW 
ALONG 69W LONGITUDE. IN EITHER CASE...STG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONT 
AS NW WINDS BACK TWD THE NORTH. 

AS FAR AS PRECIP AND OUR QPF...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN 
INCREASE AS THE STG UPPER LVL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 
GREATEST LIFT OCCURS FM 12Z TO 21Z...WHEN WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW WITH 
EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION. I BELIEVE 
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WILL OCCUR ACRS CT AND LONG ISLAND...CLOSER TO 
THE LOW/S PATH...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL. 
FURTHER WEST...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EST WED MAR 7 2001

DISC: AS OF EARLY ON THE SHIFT THERE STILL WERE SOME BANDS OF LIGHT 
SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE FA. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP STACKED 
LOW PRESS WHICH WAS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SW. THE SFC AND H5 
LOWS WERE IN THE SAME POSITION AND LOOKING AT THE IR LOOP STREAMS OF 
PCPN WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THEY SHD END BEFORE FCST IS 
PUBLISHED AND WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE ZONES.

[Mo Snow]

In NYC it's been 5 years since 12" and 4 years since 7-8"

Is that right or am I missing a storm? Been waiting a while for the next 12"+ storm

Have to be in NYC this Saturday for a high school reunion, then drive back to Philly early Sunday. Wish me luck! Hope the storm starts Sunday afternoon. 

 

[TriPol]

Is it tradition to discuss March 2001 every time there's a winter storm in our backyard? It's almost 25 years. Models have improved a lot since then. Can we let it die?

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The March 2001 nightmare. Some members probably have no recollection. Others might not have been born yet.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
242 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

WL GO AHD AND ISSUE WSW FOR ENTIRE FA FOR 3D PD. AVN/ECMWF 
CONSISTANT AND SHOWG MAJOR LO PRES EFFECTG FA SUN AFTN THRU AT LEAST 
TUE MRNG. THINKG IN XS OF A FT OF SNW...ALNG WITH 25 TO 30 MPH 
WNDS...IE NR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...SUN NGT THRU TUE MRNG. THIS 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRNGST STM SINCE THE JAN 96 BLIZZARD. 
THE ETA AND NGM HAVE COME OVR TO THE AVN/ECMWF SOLN AS WELL AS THE 
NOGAPS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SHOWG A MORE PROGRESSIVE 
SYSTEM. BUT IF THE SYSTEM GOES VERTICAL...AS IT SEEMS IT WL NOW...IT 
WL STALL BTWN DELMARVA AND CAPE COD...AND CUD HAMMER US THRU TUE 
MRNG. AM CONFIDENT ENUF THAT WE WILL GET SOMETHING THUS WL GO AHD 
AND PULL THE TRIGGR ON THE WSW. ON THE MARINE...THINKG WE CUD GET 
CSTL FLOODG PROBLMS AT TIMES OF HI TIDE...BEGNG SUN NGT. THATS STILL 
4TH PD...AND WL NOT ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH ATTM. BUT ONE WL PROBLY 
BE ISSUED THIS AFTNS PCKG. WRKZFP IN AWIPS BY 3.5 AM. ZNS WIBIS BTW 
4 AND 4.5 AM. ON THE MARINE...WL CONTINUE MENTION OF GLS SUN NGT ON. 
PROBLY BE UP TO SCA SUN AFTN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

DISC: SNOW DEVLPNG DURING SUN AFTN AND WL GET HVY FROM SUN NIGHT 
THRU MON AND BEYOND. WL ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. 
WILL HOLD OFF AN GO WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW. EVE/MID 
CREW WILL HAVE TO UP TO A WARNING. ONLY PROBLEM WITH FCST IS...WL 
OUR ERN L.I. ZONES MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES. FOR NOW DID MENTION 
THE THE MIX COMING IN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001

CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES 
NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE SNW...WET SNW...PERHAPS MIXG 
WITH A BIT OF SLEET DURG THE DAY MON. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON 
MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN 
RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW 
TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. THINKG IT WL 
BE A WET SNW...PEHAPS A 5 TO 1 RATIO CSTS AND 1 TO 8 INLND. EVEN SO 
WITH 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQ EQV...TRANSLATES TO 10 TO 18 IN. PLACES 
INLND WL SEE 2 PLUS FT OF SNW. THINKG THAT ANY WARMG WL BE OFFSET BY 
EVAP COOLG. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001

CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES 
NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE WET SNW...BCMG SLEET MON NGT IN 
STG ERLY WND. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS 
ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN 
BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG 
LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD INCLUDING TOTAL 
SNWFALL SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. BIG QUESTION 
REMAINS ON JUST HOW MILD COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BECOME AND THUS HOW 
MUCH SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE HELD DOWN. 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
300 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MDL RUN BTN ETA AND AVN...BOTH ALF AND AT 
SFC. SFC LO CNTR NR THE VA CST TO MOV SLOLY NE TDY AND 
TNGT...GETTING ABREAST OF THE FCST AREA AFT MIDN...THEN RETROGRADING 
AND ESSENTIALLY DOING A LOOP TO THE SW TUE BFR HEADING OUT TO SEA 
TUE NGT AND WED.

PCPN HAS BEEN SLO TO GET GOING AS THE LO BCMS MORE ORGANIZED. SOME 
WRMR AIR WORKING IN ALF HAS RESULTED IN SLEET AND FRZG RAIN MXG IN 
WITH THE LGT SNW THUS FAR...SPCLY NR THE CST. HWVR AS THE LO CNTR 
MOVS FTHR OFF THE CST THIS MRNG THEN TURNS NE THIS AFTN...DRAWING 
COLDER AIR BCK IN...THE MXD PCPN WL CHG TO SNW THRUOUT THE RGN.

AT THIS POINT WL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FCST OF 8 TO 14 INCHES OF 
SNW NR THE CST AND 1 TO 2 FT INLD. HWVR WITH THE LO CNTR DVLPG A BIT 
TOO FAR N...AND EVENTUALLY RMNG NR OUR AREA FOR A GOOD PART OF THE 
EVENT...AM THINKING THAT IF A CHG NEEDS TO BE MADE AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES IT WOULD BE TO REDUCE THE TOTALS A BIT...SPCLY NR THE 
CST...UNLESS WE PICK UP A LOT OF SNW ON THE BCKSIDE. BUT WITH THE 
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LENGTH OF TIME IT WL SNW...WL NOT TAMPER WITH 
THE AMTS NOW.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1005 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001

WILL UPDATE ZONES ASAP. LARGE WARM LAYER AS SEEN ON MORNING SOUNDING.
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...SO AM LOOKING AT 
RAIN FOR A PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SLEET EVEN BEING REPORTED WELL 
INLAND. WILL LOWER OR DROP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO 
HAVE A CONCERN ON NEW FORECAST PATH OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MORE ON 
THAT LATER. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT QPFS REMAINING JUST TO 
OUR NORTH ON WRAP AROUND AND IN BANDS AS LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
235 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

WESTERN SECTIONS (INCLUDING NYC) STARTING TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS 
UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HEAVIEST PRECIP NOW OVER EASTERN ZONES.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH POSITIONING OF LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SOME 
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ETA BRINGS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO JUST NORTH 
OF OUR CWA. THE SFC LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE TO LI...WHICH RESULTS IN 
TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS FOR ANY HEAVIER 
QPF AMOUNTS. I LIKE THE AVN LOOK BETTER AS WRAP AROUND AND PLENTY OF 
UVM OCCURS FROM NE TO SW FROM ROUGHLY BOS VCNTY INTO SOUTHERN CT.
THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN CATEGORICAL SNOW
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LIGHTENS UP AS UPPER SUPPORT AND SFC LOW 
PULLS FINALLY TO THE EAST.

IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS TOO MUCH WARM AIR AROUND H8 
TO OVERCOME...EVEN WITH HEAVY PRECIP APPROACHING. DYNAMIC COOLING 
WILL NOT OVERCOME THIS WARM LAYER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS 
EASTERN SECTIONS. FURTHER WEST...ANY MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW QUICKLY BEFORE 00Z. EAST ZONES WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

SHORT TERM DISC: AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS 
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND. THE LTST LOOP OF 
RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECIP FIELD ABOUT 
40 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/S SOUTHERN FORK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE 
SNOW WITH BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO WRAP-AROUND THE INTENSE 
OFFSHORE LOW. SNOW CONTS TO FALL AT THE RATE OF ARND 1 INCH PER 
HOUR. THE LTST OKX SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001

SHORT RANGE DISC: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF 
MODERATE SNOW CONT TO WRAP-ARND A 981 MB LOW NEAR BOUY 44008 AT 05Z. 
AT 06Z...9.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN MEASURED AT OKX. IN GENERAL...
SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU AT LEAST 09Z AS A MID AND 
UPPER LVL DRY SLOT CONTS TO WRAP WESTWARD ACRS CT.

MEDIUM RANGE DISC: AS STATED IN NCEP/S MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC...THE 
ETA AND NGM MDLS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE AVN 
SOLN...FOR LOOPING THE LOW BACK TWD THE SOUTHWEST. THE ETA AND NGM 
TRACK THE LOW BACK TWD 71W LONGITUDE WHILE THE AVN TRACKS THE LOW 
ALONG 69W LONGITUDE. IN EITHER CASE...STG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONT 
AS NW WINDS BACK TWD THE NORTH. 

AS FAR AS PRECIP AND OUR QPF...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN 
INCREASE AS THE STG UPPER LVL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 
GREATEST LIFT OCCURS FM 12Z TO 21Z...WHEN WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW WITH 
EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION. I BELIEVE 
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WILL OCCUR ACRS CT AND LONG ISLAND...CLOSER TO 
THE LOW/S PATH...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL. 
FURTHER WEST...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EST WED MAR 7 2001

DISC: AS OF EARLY ON THE SHIFT THERE STILL WERE SOME BANDS OF LIGHT 
SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE FA. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP STACKED 
LOW PRESS WHICH WAS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SW. THE SFC AND H5 
LOWS WERE IN THE SAME POSITION AND LOOKING AT THE IR LOOP STREAMS OF 
PCPN WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THEY SHD END BEFORE FCST IS 
PUBLISHED AND WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE ZONES.

I remember it well. 2 days off school for an inch of slop.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Is it tradition to discuss March 2001 every time there's a winter storm in our backyard? It's almost 25 years. Models have improved a lot since then. Can we let it die?

how many years has it been since rome was sacked? some things cannot be let go.....

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

In NYC it's been 5 years since 12" and 4 years since 7-8"

Is that right or am I missing a storm? Been waiting a while for the next 12"+ storm

Have to be in NYC this Saturday for a high school reunion, then drive back to Philly early Sunday. Wish me luck! Hope the storm starts Sunday afternoon. 

 

The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated.

[nycwinter]

depends on what you mean by nyc are you only counting central park or the bronx for snow totals..

[Winterweatherlover]

2001 probably doesn't happen but if this does totally whiff way way more likely it whiffs miss to the south then too warm/rain.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

how many years has it been since rome was sacked? some things cannot be let go.....

Right but how many times since then have we had Weenie suicides? Dozens. We're tracking a storm and then it dies. We never talk about those. But March 2001... it's a right of passage if you're going to be a weather weenie, you have to have a shot of scotch in your hand, be half drunk, and talk about it until the cows come home. We've had worse disappointments. 

[SACRUS]

19Z GFS to 

 

81

 

[SACRUS]

Snow starts around 4-5 AM Sun

 

 

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS rolling....

please hold serve 

It's always last to the party

[Winterweatherlover]

GFS looks like it's holding with the more south solution.

[Wxbear25]

18z GFS definitely not going to be an ICON redux, much less interaction between the Canadian part of the trough and the southern part

[KeithB]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This model did really well inside 5 days with the last system and its performance is beating the regular op models 

The past several years, when it's a solution we do not want, the EURO does well 5 days out....when it's a great snowy solution, it almost always fails/under delivers. It's gotten to the point I do not know what to make of it anymore. It's almost like we are in a simulation

[jdj5211]

Secondary low is much stronger here


.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Right but how many times since then have we had Weenie suicides? Dozens. We're tracking a storm and then it dies. We never talk about those. But March 2001... it's a right of passage if you're going to be a weather weenie, you have to have a shot of scotch in your hand, be half drunk, and talk about it until the cows come home. We've had worse disappointments. 

pretty good response, i gotta say. also, if you're gonna have a bust, march is a likely time to see one.

[Prue11]

To sum up today’s runs it looks as if the storm continues to tick north 

[Franklin0529]

Yea GFS looks nothing like the icon. Lot less phasing 

[Nibor]

[SACRUS]

 

[MJO812]

Classic GFS progression for big snowstorms 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

It doesn't look all that impressive.

[BoulderWX]

if nothing else GFS and ICON show the very wide envelope of solutions we have. No longer the consensus we had at 00z last night. Fun times tracking ahead! 

[NEG NAO]

18Z so far concentrates on the weak secondary but looks like a strung out mess - no mixing concerns here

 

[SACRUS]

 

[MJO812]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

if nothing else GFS and ICON show the very wide envelope of solutions we have. No longer the consensus we had at 00z last night. Fun times tracking ahead! 

Gfs will fold once again. It always does this with snowstorms. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

It doesn't look all that impressive.

Most of us are <.5" liquid which could still be 6 to 8

[EastonSN+]

The GFS is all over the place

[NEG NAO]