January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[jayyy]

Will be very interesting to see how Mesos look going forward.

[jayyy]

My parents have two simultaneous WWAs in effect. 2-4” today, 2-4” tomorrow. Mofos

[Kevin Reilly]

Cloudy now 33f humidity 84% dew point 27f (awful lot of low-level moisture left hanging around here ready for tomorrow 3 am to 10 am round 2).

Total snow here today 2.3"

Total snow for the year 11.7"

[yoda]

Thats it for now

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
213 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

MDZ008-507-508-180315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0005.260118T0900Z-260118T2300Z/
Cecil-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
213 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Cecil and Harford Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow, possibly mixed with rain for a few
  hours, will spread into the area early Sunday morning. There may
  be some breaks in the snow during the midday hours before
  additional snow falls in the afternoon. Visibility may drop to one
  half mile at times in moderate snow. The snow should end during
  the late afternoon or early evening.

[Eskimo Joe]

Would love to see the mesos come in wetter and colder this evening.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would love to see the mesos come in wetter and colder this evening.

Yeah this morning was okay but a tad underwhelming

[bncho]

NWS going 1-2", but no WWA? 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

NWS going 1-2", but no WWA? 

IIRC, advisory is 50% confidence to meet or exceed 2".

[CAPE]

Not sure if this was posted- I didn't see it so here is the Euro AI. Better than the last 2 runs

[WxUSAF]

All 3 airports had measurable snow today

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 airports had measurable snow today

We're gonna a hit climo one tenth of an inch at a time!

[rjvanals]

NAMs are warm  

[yoda]

Lol 18z NAM and 3km NAM went NW that C MD now gets the snow 

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol 18z NAM went NW that C MD now gets the snow 

They’ve actually juiced up but were a degree or two to warm and we waste a lot to rain 

[Eskimo Joe]

Afternoon Euro-AI now gives I-70 and points north a 10% chance of 6"+

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Afternoon Euro-AI now gives I-70 and points north a 10% chance of 6"+

That model is so bad!

[mitchnick]

@TSSN+

We're officially hugging the 3k Nam.

[Alfoman]

Sheesh that WAA really screws the city and surrounding areas 

[yoda]

Should be an interesting AFD read in a few

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

@TSSN+

We're officially hugging the 3k Nam.

Let’s ride. I’ll crash and burn with it 

[WEATHER53]

I mentioned in the obs disc that models are still in the B mode and this isn’t a B.   WWA will be placed for DC soon and we have low pressure actually along the coast and the cold air is mostly coming counter clockwise from Lows up to our north with assistance from a high around Nebraska.  The change in any evolution of the outcome Won’t  be a disappointment this time.  We’ve cleared now and should get some good radiation before clouds take over 

[WxUSAF]

omg that looks awful.  From out to sea to too far west and it's rain.  

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

omg that looks awful.  From out to sea to too far west and it's rain.  

Looks good here 

[Terpeast]

New map

[winter_warlock]

Wxrisk's DT's forecast FWIW..

 

 

 

[Warm Nose]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

omg that looks awful.  From out to sea to too far west and it's rain.  

[WxUSAF]

It isn’t really the surface temps that are the problem on the NAM. 33-35 is ok at night with decent rates. But there’s a really annoying warm nose at 950mb.

[Warm Nose]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wxrisk's DT's forecast FWIW..

 

 

 

That doesn't look like a WxRisk map. There are no intersecting lines

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It isn’t really the surface temps that are the problem on the NAM. 33-35 is ok at night with decent rates. But there’s a really annoying warm nose at 950mb.

That's not far off the deck at all. Higher elevations in Howard, Carroll and Baltimore counties should be able to overcome it...hopefully. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

That doesn't look like a WxRisk map. There are no intersecting lines

Were you summoned by @WxUSAFsaying warm nose?  (BTW what went into choosing that name? Sarcastic irony?)