12th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

[RodneyS]

It's time for the 12th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest!   

Those who participated last year will recollect an exciting contest through mid-February, when a blockbuster snowstorm seemed poised to produce a major change to our leaderboard.  However, the storm turned south, and largely missed our contest airports. That left two of our entrants tied for first place, with many others close behind.  But no one gained ground after that because snow was done for the season in these parts and @HighStakes held on to edge out @mattie g-- courtesy of a tiebreaker. 

The consensus view this snow season is that we are likely to experience a second consecutive borderline Weak La Nina.  Does that mean that snow totals at our airports will parallel last season's moderate totals? I think the consensus there is: "Who knows?"  Which should make for a wide-open contest this season.  

In any case, the focus of our contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2025-26 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International (RIC) Airports.  In the event a tiebreaker is required (that happened not only last year, but also seven years ago), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting at each of five airports total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch.  Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April.

The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four major airports. For example, if you forecast zeroes at each airport except for Richmond:

BWI: 0.0"

DCA: 0.0"

IAD: 0.0"

RIC: 10.0"

And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be:

BWI: 2.5"

DCA: 2.5"

IAD: 2.5"

RIC: 2.5"

Your absolute value departures would be:

BWI: 2.5

DCA: 2.5

IAD: 2.5

RIC: 7.5

Thus, your total departure would be 15.0.

Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Monday, December 1, at 11:59 PM EST. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline.  However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, be sure to include that in your forecast total.

I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone

2015-16:  @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone

2016-17:  @StormpcStormpchadowzone

2017-18:  @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc

2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide

2020-21: @NorthArlington101

2021-22:  @IUsedToHateCold

2022-23: @LittleVillageWx

2023-24: @Kmlwx

2024-25: @HighStakes(tiebreaker win against @mattie g)@Storm

Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region.  Good luck everyone!

[NorthArlington101]

BWI: 11.3”

DCA: 9.7”

IAD: 12.1”

RIC: 7.9”

SBY: 9.0”

I’ll let this slightly pessimistic guess (aka roughly new climo) be my starting point and then adjust as I get caught in this hype 

[nw baltimore wx]

BWI: 17.2

DCA: 14.8

IAD: 19.5

RIC: 11.7

SBY: 16.4

[JenkinsJinkies]

BWI: 3.5”

DCA: 2.9”

IAD: 5.0”

RIC: 1.8”

Tiebreaker (LYH): 1.0”

[Wxdavis5784]

BWI: 24.0"

DCA: 21.0”

IAD: 26.5"

RIC: 20.5”

SBY: 13.0”

[Steve25]

BWI: 22.5”

DCA: 18.0”

IAD: 23.0”

RIC: 19.5”

SBY: 13.5”

[GATECH]

BWI: 17.3”

DCA: 15.1”

IAD: 19.3”

RIC: 7.6”

SBY: 8.0”

[RickinBaltimore]

BWI: 5.3"

DCA: 3.9"

IAD: 4.4"

RIC: 2.8"

Tiebreaker: SBY: 1.4"