Hurricane Melissa

[dan11295]

12Z HAFS-A keeps Melissa basically steady state until a 907mb 16z landfall just west of Treasure Beach. HAFS-B has 901 mb landfall a bit tad further west about 13z

[BuffaloWeather]

47 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Fortunately for Jamaica the extreme winds only go out about 8 miles from the center. Kingston the capitol may not get into any hurricane force winds but strong tropical storm force winds seems likely. Of course everything depends on eventual path.

Wind is always the least worry in a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge and flooding are top concerns here. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

12Z HAFS-A keeps Melissa basically steady state until a 907mb 16z landfall just west of Treasure Beach. HAFS-B has 901 mb landfall a bit tad further west about 13z

Bad tracks not just for the population but those both hit resort areas hard.  Most of them are on the western 1/4 of the island so thats a loss of a big portion of their economy for this winter probably

[TPAwx]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 16.5°N 78.3°W
Moving: WNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 906 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wind is always the least worry in a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge and flooding are top concerns here. 

totally untrue..

[WxWatcher007]

 

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wind is always the least worry in a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge and flooding are top concerns here. 

Depends on the location.  Jamaica has mostly block structures, which is helpful, but how are the roofs going to fare if this does land as a Cat 4+?  The wind will be very damaging to housing and infrastructure.  The HAFS make me worry about Montego Bay on the NW side.

[ATDoel]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

totally untrue..

Wind is a big deal but most people that die in hurricanes is from surge/flooding, not wind.

[BretWx]

Unreal. 

[WxWatcher007]

Melissa has now surpassed Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and has the second lowest minimum pressure in the basin since 2016, right behind Milton. 

[Wannabehippie]

The visible high res .5k satellite photo shows an insane eye, with the mini vortexes, etc.

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/23d25d52-a94f-4476-b368-fed4d4c0dc75

The eastern 2/3rds of Jamaica are going to get raked for a prolonged period of time due to it being on the western semi-circle of the hurricane.

[hazwoper]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

totally untrue..

In a mountainous island like Jamaica it absolutely is true.  Obviously winds will be devastating at the center, but the biggest impact for the island will be the sheer amount of rainfall from this event that will be exacerbated by topo with mass amounts of fresh water having nowhere to drain during the height of the storm due to surge.  

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

In a mountainous island like Jamaica it absolutely is true.  Obviously winds will be devastating at the center, but the biggest impact for the island will be the sheer amount of rainfall from this event that will be exacerbated by topo with mass amounts of fresh water having nowhere to drain during the height of the storm due to surge.  

What will help some is that the mountains have trees, which will help prevent mudslides. If it was a place like Haiti where the mountains have been denuded of trees, there would be massive mudslides, with little or no warning, causing more deaths, and devastation. 

[TriPol]

I remember we went decades without a category 5. Now it's a regular occurrence. Incredible.

[NoCORH4L]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I remember we went decades without a category 5. Now it's a regular occurrence. Incredible.

AGW

[MN Transplant]

7 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

In a mountainous island like Jamaica it absolutely is true.  Obviously winds will be devastating at the center, but the biggest impact for the island will be the sheer amount of rainfall from this event that will be exacerbated by topo with mass amounts of fresh water having nowhere to drain during the height of the storm due to surge.  

Jamaica's coastline is relatively steep in most places, so the surge is less likely to be a concern.  Rainfall and wind are the big-ticket items here.  This is probably more akin to Maria in PR as anything else.

[WolfStock1]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I remember we went decades without a category 5. Now it's a regular occurrence. Incredible.

 

"Decades" is a  bit hyperbolic - longest recorded stretch (in the modern-day satellite era at least) with no Cat 5 is 9 years; but yeah they're definitely increasing in frequency.

They generally seem to follow the solar cycles actually, and since we're at the peak of one...

[olafminesaw]

Lots of parallels to Helene in western NC from a flooding standpoint. Somewhat similar topograph/rainfall amounts/duration. Jamaica can probably handle it a little better with heavy rainfall from tropical systems being much more common in that part of the world

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Lots of parallels to Helene in western NC from a flooding standpoint. Somewhat similar topograph/rainfall amounts/duration. Jamaica can probably handle it a little better with heavy rainfall from tropical systems being much more common in that part of the world

30-40 inches that common in jamaica?

[ATDoel]

15 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

"Decades" is a  bit hyperbolic - longest recorded stretch (in the modern-day satellite era at least) with no Cat 5 is 9 years; but yeah they're definitely increasing in frequency.

They generally seem to follow the solar cycles actually, and since we're at the peak of one...

They do follow the solar cycle, but with an anti-correlation. Extreme tropical cyclones are least likely to occur during the solar maximum.

 

However there's a very strong positive correlation with AGW.

[WxWatcher007]

I can't access radar so I can't see, but it seems to me that the earlier moat that existed has been filled and we don't have any indication of an ERC?

If that is the case, and we do not have an ERC on the table, tonight may actually be the time when Melissa peaks given the diurnal cycle and its impact on the periods of intensification/convective activity we've seen...This structure is as high end as you can get in the basin. 

It's also worth noting that this is the only part of the basin where something like this is possible. 

This last image really crystalizes it. As anomalous as it gets for this time of year. 

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

33 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I remember we went decades without a category 5. Now it's a regular occurrence. Incredible.

29 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

AGW

Wonder if this season's whole quality over quantity thing is a preview of our future seasons thanks to climate hell. I think it fits the general predictions of a little less activity but far more intense. 

[HKY_WX]

I'm not sure there are many good comparisons on this one other than Maria/PR and Dorian/Bahamas. Everyone knows how those turned out.

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

They do follow the solar cycle, but with an anti-correlation. Extreme tropical cyclones are least likely to occur during the solar maximum.

 

However there's a very strong positive correlation with AGW.

Solar maximum years include 1958, 1968, 1979, 1989, 2001, 2014, 2024 (or 2025). Beulah (1967), Camille (1969), David (1979), Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Hugo (1989), Beryl (2024) and Milton (2024) occurred within a year of the solar maximum or during the solar maximum.

[ATDoel]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Solar maximum years include 1958, 1968, 1979, 1989, 2001, 2014, 2024 (or 2025). Beulah (1967), Camille (1969), David (1979), Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Hugo (1989), Beryl (2024) and Milton (2024) occurred within a year of the solar maximum or during the solar maximum.

It's been studied.  Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity - Nayak - 2024 - Earth and Space Science - Wiley Online Library

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

It's been studied.  Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity - Nayak - 2024 - Earth and Space Science - Wiley Online Library

Thanks for sharing the link. The paper's explanation is more nuanced than the broader language to which I responded and it covers all basins, not just the Atlantic. Its abstract is sufficient and states:

...extreme TC events with a maximum wind speed of 137 knots and higher (category 5) are most likely to occur during the declining phase of a solar cycle and least likely to occur during the ascending phase or the maximum phase. Although solar activity levels are similar during the declining and ascending phases, the yearly occurrence rate is nearly double in the declining phase (1.123) as compared to that in the ascending phase (0.625).

[olafminesaw]

38 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

30-40 inches that common in jamaica?

Of course not, I just mean totals are a 4 standard deviation instead of a 5 standard deviation event, or whatever. 

[WolfStock1]

37 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

Extreme tropical cyclones are least likely to occur during the solar maximum.

 

Not what I'm seeing (e.g. we're at a peak right now, and we've had five Cat 5's in the last two years).   Spun off a separate thread though so as to not derail this one.