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wdrag

Potential few SVR/FF events parts of NYC forum Wed-Thu 7/22-23/20

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Thankfully those 12z models were wrong, especially HRRR which really missed this. A great job by wdrag! As others said, a great storm here in northern Middlesex county. Probably the best lightning show in the last couple years along with 40 to 50mph wind gusts and over 2 inches of rain. Really glad we didn't miss out!

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From yawners to big barkers, the 2PM-9PM svr and heavy rain bands soon will be done, with widely scattered possibly briefly heavy showers overnight. Tomorrow is another day but essentially no change to earlier thinking. 

Have added a few graphics: Won't be surprised at seeing a 3.5-4.5" rain report come in from near Liberty Township in northwest NJ, just s of I80. Otherwise posted a couple of radar storm total graphics.   OKX includes last night while DIX is only this afternoon-evening. See the one early storm track on DIX (Brodheadsville-Scotrun-Montague storm) near the nw tip of NJ. Also, Rutgers climate totals for today only. Have seen numerous 2+ inch amounts on weather underground personal weather stations and a couple between 3.5-4.5"  So we'll await more data tomorrow morning. Also a crude map of reports as sent by the NWS by 830PM. Finally a sampling of customer (household meter) power outages in the northeast as of about 830PM. 

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It seems when convective coverage is in question, meso models are often more likely to underdo coverage than overdo. I find that the HRDPS model often does a pretty good job in comparison.

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1.54" from this evening's storms. Sub-severe imby, but a short period of gusty winds of maybe 35 mph. Very satisfying. 

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32 minutes ago, doncat said:

It seems when convective coverage is in question, meso models are often more likely to underdo coverage than overdo. I find that the HRDPS model often does a pretty good job in comparison.

it hits us hard tomorrow...

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Total dud non event here. Some lightning and light rain. The only time we get decent storms around here anymore are during the early morning hours.

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Got slammed here in central Queens. Tons of lightning, torrential sheets of rain and wind easily had to be 40-50 mph. 

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SVR-FF potential continues... a little more wind available aloft, but not sure it will be quite as unstable, in part due to cloud cover. My guess is more FF, than SVR with bulk of east-southeastward moving big producers 4P-mid. Might have a few showers around this morning. Please follow SPC/NWS local discussions-statements and your own expertise. I'll post the updated 6hr COUNTYWIDE average threshold now.  Then when time permits midday, will revisit the mesoscale and see if I can figure out a probable most favorable area for FF (2-4") amounts between Noon-midnight  in a few spots. If it repeats I80-I78, then a bit bigger problem will ensue. Just don't know the details. (saw the very wet UK overnight but don't know what to make of it). Off line 630A to possibly as late as 1P. 618A/23

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