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  1. Did you bother to look at the surface map ? It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 At 222 it`s plus 1 at 850 and - 1 at 925 This just went from a low to Chicago to one off the Delmarva with 8 days to go. I would keep an eye on it, it`s different than what this was doing yesterday
  2. Now the Interior is close , it`s not always about NYC. 2 days ago it was Chicago
  3. The GEM and GEFS keep this alive. However all the LR guidance has been terrible so I would really wait this year for the surfaces to respond and be close to being believable. But significant, I would hold off on that for now.
  4. This is your typical 500mb response to p8 in Feb. It`s all you can ask for. It does not have to guarantee snow, nothing does , but if you want a favorable 500 in Feb you want p8
  5. He was only speaking about the MJO going into p8. Most here didn`t think it would go there, but you have the guidance, Timmy and Tom agreeing that we prob go into p8. Can`t just stick that aside. It`s not always about snow.
  6. The guidance still suggest that we go into p8 and then collapse The CFS has been the most consistent while most RIMMS crashed after p6, the CFS never gave up p7 and now continues into p8 The Vp 200`s match the CFS
  7. So here is what I expected from 2 weeks ago that we would go from this, to this, Temp wise that`s a def flip at 2m I also expected that we would not get stuck in p4/ 5/ 6 earlier this month like some of the models said , nor would we get stuck in p6 That also looks do be correct The Vp 200`s match the CFS yesterday So what happened after this ? Day 6 to 12 in response to a spike in the AAM stuck a massive ridge over Hudson Bay. Plus 3 over 5 days in late Jan isn`t exactly a torch and I wouldn`t break out the shorts, but these warmer spikes usually outperform. So right in the middle of the return of the 20th, and the pushing away of the SE ridge a ridge in Canada shows up, go figure. Do you believe the CFS as we head into Feb Or the GEPS ? Or the EPS which is following the MJO back into p6. Feb has always been my best winter month and I wanted to begin the period on the 20th. The 5 day period threw some dynamite on the fire for my start, but all is not lost yet IMO
  8. Ah so this is where you ripped " the 500`s look like April " post from . You should at least give these guys credit if you`re going to lift their material and drop it away. The EPS blows up in the 11- 15 because it may be looping the MJO back into p6 and that`s not where i think it`s going. Credit @Allsnow, he was the 1st I saw say this. So now I know where you come to lift others ideas. Tisk Tisk.
  9. I see the actual 0 line down into N/C after that ridge pulls back. It`s slightly BN and in late Jan it`s cold enough if you build a ridge over H/B. That terrible PAC sends out POS tilted waves. I am not going to change your mind , just showing what I see man.
  10. Here is what the EPS is showing at the surface. You flipped out of a huge SE ridge into a trough in the S/E That`s a pattern change, it doesn`t mean one or both get don`t kicked OTS , but looking at that map you may be wishing for a SE ridge.
  11. Sorry dude, I thought you meant hamburgers. Clearly my bad
  12. So you want to focus on pressure differences between the Arctic and the mid latitudes but ignore the center of the ridge ? You think the AO is the only reason you got a blizzard on the EC ?