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Potential few SVR/FF events parts of NYC forum Wed-Thu 7/22-23/20

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27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Getting slammed! Best storm of the summer 

Easily.  Back home I see my station only got .15" Here I see a station by rutgers has 1.25"  Glad I visited in laws!

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Just now, ict1523 said:

Quite a dramatic build up to this storm with really dark clouds, gusty winds, and nonstop CTG lightning and thunder. 

Yeah same here pretty crazy looking

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It’s been a long time since I’ve witnessed a thunderstorm like this. Lightning ever 10-30 seconds. 

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Rest of today and Thursday: No change in the ~630AM update and topic.

SVR reports will continue to accumulate (retrieved from early storms passage).  Also I think you're going to see a few 3-4" amounts near Hackettstown-Great Meadows NJ.  

Flooding: I'll post an updated FFG map tomorrow. You already see the SPC D2 svr on-line, for the NY forum.    I'll try to get this all out by 630A Thursday.                                                              

Note:  We could see 2-4" of rain in a narrow band somewhere in N Jersey  or se NYS tomorrow...  for now the SPC HREF has it toward Ocean County (MAX amount).  In any case, tomorrow's activity may continue lively for heavy rain past midnight tomorrow night. Regarding the 3" near Mansfield NJ now... fail total by tomorrow night may be ~ 4".  Selfdom do heavy thunderstorms traverse the exact same path two days in a row... but  we'll see.

 

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wow incredible light show, almost non stop, blinding lightning and some strong wind gusts, rain mainly light so far, heavy stuff on the doorstep. 

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It is surprising how difficult it is to make even very short term forecasts for these thunderstorms.

The various NYC weather forecasts had fraction of an inch precipitation and modest probabilities through the afternoon, only adjusted upward after 6 pm.

Clearly there is still a lot of room for learning here, we're now talking possibly up to 2" for Manhattan.

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22 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

2018?

I’ve moved a lot over the metro the past couple of years. Where ever I’ve been living I’ve somehow missed the goods. A lot of the “severe” thunderstorms I’ve witnessed over that time were probably low on the qualifier for that warning. This was definitely severe. 

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