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wdrag

Potential few SVR/FF events parts of NYC forum Wed-Thu 7/22-23/20

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SVR-FF potential continues... a little more wind available aloft, but not sure it will be quite as unstable, in part due to cloud cover. My guess is more FF, than SVR with bulk of east-southeastward moving big producers 4P-mid. Might have a few showers around this morning. Please follow SPC/NWS local discussions-statements and your own expertise. I'll post the updated 6hr COUNTYWIDE average threshold now.  Then when time permits midday, will revisit the mesoscale and see if I can figure out a probable most favorable area for FF (2-4") amounts between Noon-midnight  in a few spots. If it repeats I80-I78, then a bit bigger problem will ensue. Just don't know the details. (saw the very wet UK overnight but don't know what to make of it). Off line 630A to possibly as late as 1P. 618A/23

Screen Shot 2020-07-23 at 5.36.50 AM.png

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11 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

F- 0 IMO

 

 

I'd lean towards a microburst but most likely just straight line winds. There's no evidence of a circulation in the water or rain.

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as soon as we heat up this afternoon storms are going to fill in. no cap and a moist profile 

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3 minutes ago, ARyan said:

I'd lean towards a microburst but most likely just straight line winds. There's no evidence of a circulation in the water or rain.

That's what it was.

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

as soon as we heat up this afternoon storms are going to fill in. no cap and a moist profile 

Yup sun is coming out now , that was one of the concerns . Instability is rising .

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2 hours ago, PB-99 said:

F- 0 IMO

 

 

Looks like a wet micro burst to me. We could play back the radar loops and see if there was any rotation detected. 
this evening should produce a few more severe storms in our area. Leaning towards central and south jersey. 

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Review: Appears to me 2 bands of big storms going to move east southeast through portions of the NYC forum between now and midnight, with isolated heavy showers ahead of  and in between. Of possibly greater interest to me for widespread heavy rain is just north of the frontal boundary between 2AM and 10AM Friday (LI-I80 southward). 

Line in MA has been SPC watched. That may extend back into ne PA soon?  The line further back in central NYS may be bigger deal (warning out recently)...that one is closer to the wind shift. Not quite as ripe ahead of the lines as yesterday but would not give up yet... Have plenty of instability, moisture and lift arriving this evening.  (see what's happening over L Erie in cloud animation at 1830z).  

For Friday morning: there could be quite a band of heavy rain just north of boundary if the wind turns light north or northeast by dawn Friday...accentuating sublet lift of a wet airmass. Not severe but rainfall of over 1" in 6 hours possible.  Not guaranteeing but that has been cued by the UK and less robustly in a few other models.

Just have to wait this out a little more and watch upstream development, surface convergence and dew point pooling near 74F for the prefrontal few SVR or FF.  I think there will be some action to discuss in our area by 6PM. 240P/23

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Looks like a wet micro burst to me. We could play back the radar loops and see if there was any rotation detected. 
this evening should produce a few more severe storms in our area. Leaning towards central and south jersey. 

 

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Just now, SRRTA22 said:

Figured it was a downburst. Winds got crazy out of no where yesterday here in Jersey City

Yeah. That was a lot of fun!

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Just now, Animal said:

Watch issued...

not seeing much activity yet

The line way back in NYS might be the one to watch-that won't get here till 8 or 9 though at the earliest

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

The line way back in NYS might be the one to watch-that won't get here till 8 or 9 though at the earliest

Hope you are right 

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i think yesterday's mcs overturned the atmosphere too much and the clouds this morning lingered too long

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Not over. Iso SVR possible thru the night...not probable but frontal boundary, PWAT 1.9", 850 vorticity with trough coming sewd, RRQ 500mb jet and activity not yet waning very much in PA/CT (esp CT where its not supposed to be doing much in the models). I think the NAM12K has it right and while I could be wrong, I am looking for showers, iso thunderstorms to expand eastward along I80-LI and persist into the 10AM Friday hour.  If I'm wrong, I'm possibly just a touch too far north.  I saw minor svr late this aftn toward Red Bank NJ, possibly now in sw CT, and Pequest NJ area already past 3.6" for the entire forecast period. Will try to gather a few more reports in the morning thru 12z only. 

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Those two cells off the south shore are creating another fantastic light show if you can get a good line of sight. Hamptons out to Montauk must be getting it good right now. They don’t get svr warned often. 

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Constant lightning to my south, sky lighting up every 3-5 seconds, makes it feel much closer than it actually is.

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