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wdrag

Potential few SVR/FF events parts of NYC forum Wed-Thu 7/22-23/20

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Up here in the Catskills it's looking like most of this misses to my south but at the same time, the developing MCS looks good. Feeding into the instability quite well 

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I can see the backside of the cell that's up near I-84 now. Looks fairly benign. 

The main part of the line is approaching Allentown and continues to fill in to the North, so hopefully things hold together. 

SPC mesoanalyis indicates roughly 3000-3500 J/KG of SBCAPE in place and strong low level lapse rates coupled with 30-40kts of effective bulk shear. Should be enough to sustain the line with damaging winds possible. This isolated activity ahead of the line should also leave behind some boundaries which could locally enhance activity.

Strongest storm currently looks like a discrete cell in the Catskills which appears to be a right mover. Depending on exact trajectory and intensity it could make it down into parts of the Hudson Valley.

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Nothing dramatic with this line as it passes through here.  No strong winds or torrential downpours.  The line that passed through late last evening was much more impressive- especially in terms of the downpours associated with it.  Lightning here is mainly CTC.

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fwiw at 540P...the line developing northeastward (northern extent so far) toward Wantage in far nw NJ is the real deal... very dark south and southwest. Can see nice building CU/CB at north end of the line and we should be assured of doubling the .01 we received around 315P.  Also saw the two hail reports with the 310-320P cells  in far nw Nj and they sort of looked like hailers on my visuals (so much light showing through the falling precip). Any way, this 540 PM line should be more productive for the NYC forum except maybe Middletown NY area. Enjoy whatever you receive. 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

That cell out ahead of the line means business

Oh yeah...loud thunder with plenty of lightning 

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1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

What a gorgeous line, the models never really saw this to this extent.

The models have been a bit clueless this summer with severe/heavy rainfall events. 

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Just now, PB-99 said:

What a gorgeous line, the models never really saw this to this extent.

Not the versions after around 12z... but prior to that NAM3k, HRRR etc were pretty robust on a 5-9P line traversing virtually all of our area.  This happens sometimes, the models see something for several cycles well in advance, then lose it in shorter lead time (not good and inconsistent). However, when 12z runs didn't init well for 16z radar, we had a hint the models had problems.  Anyway a number of 1.5-2.5" reports today from near Mount Olive Township to near Glen Gardner. Probably going to be some road travel problems by 745PM in more eastern parts of paved regions in NJ due to excessive short term rainfall. Also noting more and more severe reports from the mid afternoon ne PA complex. 

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Saw a few pieces of hail up to nickel size.  Based on the sirens I'm assuming some of those bolts found a target.  Might've gotten a few on video.

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

Saw a few pieces of hail up to nickel size.  Based on the sirens I'm assuming some of those bolts found a target.  Might've gotten a few on video.

The radar just exploded over our area

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15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not the versions after around 12z... but prior to that NAM3k, HRRR etc were pretty robust on a 5-9P line traversing virtually all of our area.  This happens sometimes, the models see something for several cycles well in advance, then lose it in shorter lead time (not good and inconsistent). However, when 12z runs didn't init well for 16z radar, we had a hint the models had problems.  Anyway a number of 1.5-2.5" reports today from near Mount Olive Township to near Glen Gardner. Probably going to be some road travel problems by 745PM in more eastern parts of paved regions in NJ due to excessive short term rainfall. Also noting more and more severe reports from the mid afternoon ne PA complex. 

 

It just appears more robust and larger in to S in coverage than what I was looking at earlier.

Good call on your part from Sunday having this on your radar.

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10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The radar just exploded over our area

This is incredibly heavy rain and it's been going on for a while now too.

Looking at the radar it's like there was some convergence between the outflow ahead of the line and the outflow from the storms to the north, and the first cell popped over Middlesex.  Now the rest of the line is consolidating with it.  It's very dark outside, fairly gusty, but wow the rain is nuts.  Major street flooding.

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2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

This is incredibly heavy rain and it's been going on for a while now too.

Looking at the radar it's like there was some convergence between the outflow ahead of the line and the outflow from the storms to the north, and the first cell popped over Middlesex.  Now the rest of the line is consolidating with it.  It's very dark outside, fairly gusty, but wow the rain is nuts.  Major street flooding.

Yeah its been going close to 30 minutes

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