October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

What app/website is this from?

I'm impressed that it has estimates from most major modeling systems.

My only issue with it: mean(53.7+23.4+42.1+20.2+51.2+23.5+58.4+27.4+43.2+20.4+41.2+21.7+41.8+23.5) == 35.1mph

I'm not sure where they're getting 17.8mph from.

My website is Ginxweather.com 

The average is sustained wind.

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats SCOOTER and Masswx

That rainfall max keeps showing up near me in N CT. 

[Cyclone-68]

Pretty cool seeing the thunderstorms increase off the southeast coast. I’m not a big “rain guy” but I’m morbidly fascinated to see what 6-8 inches of rain would do 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Pretty cool seeing the thunderstorms increase off the southeast coast. I’m not a big fan of”rain guy” but I’m morbidly fascinated to see what 6-8 inches of rain would do 

Not much over 3 days 

[kdxken]

Birds are going crazy in the woods. Apparently sharp drops in barometric pressure send them into a feeding frenzy.  Most quick drops usually occur in the winter so i have never noticed.

[Brian5671]

Winds really picking up here gusting into the 30-35 mph range

[MegaMike]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My website is Ginxweather.com 

The average is sustained wind.

You developed it? Nice! I like your visuals/displays.

Did you get all forecast data from an API?

For wind speed, I see:

The mean wind speed in the screen cap == 17.8 mph, but shouldn't it be mean(23.4+20.2+23.5+27.4+20.4+21.7+23.5) = 22.9 mph? Nothing is below 20.2 mph for wind speed.

[DirtySnowDen]

The is going to be bad, the fact the broad and oddly cold high pressure is splitting into a two engine system as the tropical low pressure comes north and hits a wall it spilts evenly, not allowing it to leave in either direction so it’s lost and there is a Full Moon this weekend.

[DirtySnowDen]

Scooters “banana high” is literally getting broken, evenly.

[ineedsnow]

GFS north of 6z and close to 0z

[ineedsnow]

By hr42 actually bumps north

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not much over 3 days 

I think the only caveat there is if we get real banding. I can see periods where it pours under those and people see localized issues. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the only caveat there is if we get real banding. I can see periods where it pours under those and people see localized issues. 

Yep, there’s gonna be periods where it might be dry and not much going on, and then absolute downpours at other times. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

By hr42 actually bumps north

Better LLJ too.

[weatherwiz]

GFS doesn't seem as inverted either, especially inland. In fact, even developing a couple hundred J of MUCAPE

[DirtySnowDen]

The fact, if correct, initialization is lower than expected, it’s punching through that high.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

99mb is pretty low....

yeah, probably be able to pull super cooled columns of air out of the stratosphere and flip some over to snow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’m getting the feeling New Jersey through Southern Connecticut takes the brunt of this. 

[Prismshine Productions]

My website is Ginxweather.com 
The average is sustained wind.

Bookmarked, site is beautiful

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[DirtySnowDen]

Remember it’s meteorology and not modelogy, that low pressure is already lapping up the cold air as it sits over warm-ish water. It’s gonna force the high to weaken and split, funneling the same low pressure at the same time.

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

You developed it? Nice! I like your visuals/displays.

Did you get all forecast data from an API?

For wind speed, I see:

The mean wind speed in the screen cap == 17.8 mph, but shouldn't it be mean(23.4+20.2+23.5+27.4+20.4+21.7+23.5) = 22.9 mph? Nothing is below 20.2 mph for wind speed.

Fixed yes API.  Missing data was dragging it down.  Thanks Mike

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not much over 3 days 

Except it comes in Exceptionally wet banding. You could pick up 4 inches in 90 minutes 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Except it comes in Exceptionally wet banding. You could pick up 4 inches in 90 minutes 

I don’t know if this setup will produce that, but heavy rains sure. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Bookmarked, site is beautiful

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Thanks will be handy coming winter 

[Typhoon Tip]

Does seem like the lower tropospheric foot of the cyclone's currently snipped off the warm front and drifting just by impression of satellite. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know if this setup will produce that, but heavy rains sure. 

6 inches in 6 hrs

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Does seem like the lower tropospheric foot of the cyclone's currently snipped off the warm front and drifting just by impression of satellite. 

Yeah naked swirl. Wonder if a new center redevelops?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

6 inches in 6 hrs

That’s precip rate 

[WxWatcher007]

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s precip rate 

Averaged over 6hr. His problem is it’s mm and not inches. So that’s about 1.5” in that orange pixel.