It's coming 1/31-2/1

[coastalplainsnowman]

24 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Surprise 

The haha emoji replies have been great.  When I see them as I read through the thread it's like there's a laugh track now.

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Brutal

 

I mean look-we have 10+ inches of hardened snow on the ground and huge piles in every parking lot that will last into March, and bays/rivers all freezing over. If this one misses there will be another. It’s as deep winter here as you could ever ask for. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean look-we have 10+ inches of hardened snow on the ground and huge piles in every parking lot that will last into March, and bays/rivers all freezing over. If this one misses there will be another. It’s as deep winter here as you could ever ask for. 

[NorthShoreWx]

 

NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

MONTAUK                SUFFOLK        13.5    730 AM
EAST HAMPTON           SUFFOLK        10.0    700 AM
SHINECOCK              SUFFOLK         8.5    730 AM
BRIDGEHAMPTON          SUFFOLK         8.5    700 AM
ORIENT POINT           SUFFOLK         8.0    700 AM
NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN  SUFFOLK         6.4    700 AM
PATCHOGUE              SUFFOLK         5.9    700 AM
RIDGE                  SUFFOLK         5.0    730 AM
MOUNT SINAI            SUFFOLK         4.7    700 AM
FARMINGVILLE           SUFFOLK         4.6    800 AM
SOUTH SETAUKET         SUFFOLK         4.5    800 AM
RONKONKOMA             SUFFOLK         4.0    700 AM
ISLIP                  SUFFOLK         3.0    700 AM
CENTERPORT             SUFFOLK         2.8    800 AM
FARMINGDALE            NASSAU          2.0    700 AM
OCEANSIDE              NASSAU          1.8    600 AM
NORTH MASSAPEQUA       NASSAU          1.5    700 AM
LA GUARDIA AP          QUEENS          2.0    700 AM
KENNEDY AP             QUEENS          1.0    700 AM
GRAVES END BROOKLYN    KINGS           1.2    800 AM
CENTRAL PARK           NEW YORK        1.5    700 AM
WHITE PLAINS           WESTCHESTER     1.3    700 AM

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro is out to sea should've stayed away today but my feen'ness didn't let me!

[NorthShoreWx]

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro is out to sea should've stayed away today but my feen'ness didn't let me!

Plenty more shots next month! 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro is out to sea should've stayed away today but my feen'ness didn't let me!

Still close to monitor 

[wishcast_hater]

Event is 4 days away.  Still hope.

[WestBabylonWeather]

[psv88]

Euro still shows some light snows for long island and SNE, but yea shes slipping away.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Euro still shows some light snows for long island and SNE, but yea shes slipping away.

Yep almost time to throw the towel. There will be more chances of snow ahead.

[Snowlover11]

[TriPol]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep almost time to throw the towel. There will be more chances of snow ahead.

I heard something about the Polar Vortex coming in hot due to SSW. The usual suspects. I'm looking outside at the icy Hudson right now and wondering how much lower we can go in temperatures. Soon we're going to need icebreakers. I don't see a day above freezing in the 10 day outlook at all.

[eduggs]

This ribbon of vorticity keeps trending south on all guidance even as some models continue to deepen the ULL and negatively tilt the trof axis. You need that ribbon arcing up through southern Ontario for the SLP to gain latitude. The trend is a beautiful thing for an eastern VA/NC blizzard. But it screams OTS further up the coast.

[WeatherGeek2025]

                                  there's still some time left 

Anthony in his basement 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't know why some folks think this is going to be set in stone after todays model runs - review the AFD's posted from Don for the Boxing Day storm less then 3 days in advance of the onset of precip

I love your optimism. I truly wonder though... why do we chase storms on here to just stare at different radars to look at echos and DBZ? Does anybody in here just go outside and enjoy the snow when it falls? 

[SACRUS]

 

1/28 12z euro total qpf

 

still close enough to watch for a light snowfall and at best / overperforming few inches over the next 72 hours

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I love your optimism. I truly wonder though... why do we chase storms on here to just stare at different radars to look at echos and DBZ? Does anybody in here just go outside and enjoy the snow when it falls? 

i for one am addicted to tracking storms but also enjoy the snow

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I love your optimism. I truly wonder though... why do we chase storms on here to just stare at different radars to look at echos and DBZ? Does anybody in here just go outside and enjoy the snow when it falls? 

Every time.

[eduggs]

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean look-we have 10+ inches of hardened snow on the ground and huge piles in every parking lot that will last into March, and bays/rivers all freezing over. If this one misses there will be another. It’s as deep winter here as you could ever ask for. 

This was the chance for historic snow depths and cold. There are no obvious snow threats beyond this one on the horizon but it looks seasonably cold and northern-stream dominated. We'll probably have some snow chances in February, but the month is the beginning of melt season.

[rclab]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I love your optimism. I truly wonder though... why do we chase storms on here to just stare at different radars to look at echos and DBZ? Does anybody in here just go outside and enjoy the snow when it falls? 

Some do …….. some don’t, as always …

[BoulderWX]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This ribbon of vorticity keeps trending south on all guidance even as some models continue to deepen the ULL and negatively tilt the trof axis. You need that ribbon arcing up through southern Ontario for the SLP to gain latitude. The trend is a beautiful thing for an eastern VA/NC blizzard. But it screams OTS further up the coast.

My family in chapel hill look to be in a great position. 

[TJW014]

EPS would still be a 6-8" snowfall for LI and NJ coast

[mikem81]

FWIW, the 12Z EURO was much better than 0Z just not as good as the off run 6Z or prior 18Z 

[donsutherland1]

Little has changed since 6z. The deep 500 mb low that is forecast to develop will track through Alabama, Georgia and then out to sea. That's too far to the south to allow for an appreciable snowfall in the New York City area. A lighter snowfall remains plausible. 

The 12z Guidance:

Some of the synoptic details are still subject to change. The guidance should be growing more skillful in resolving the synoptic details through the day today and especially tomorrow.

[RU848789]

And the NBM got a little snowier over the last 3 runs and is still way snowier than any model for reasons I don't understand given the inputs - maybe someone here has hacked it?

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

And the NBM got a little snowier over the last 3 runs and is still way snowier than any model for reasons I don't understand given the inputs - maybe someone here has hacked it?

 

Rjay hacked the mainframe 

[psv88]

Verbatim Euro is 2" for Suffolk County on East.

[WestBabylonWeather]