February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[mitchnick]

Great beach weekend at KD Hills.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS much better. Where is @stormtracker to unpanic?

Eh. Panics isn’t the right word. I’ll wait for some consistency. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great beach weekend at KD Hills.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

Impressive forecast. Haven't seen that here in ages lol.

[CAPE]

^Should be a blizzard warning in effect there

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Hmmm, I don’t remember it like that and I lived right on 95. I remember it being freezing cold and constant overperforming storms and nonstop tracking. The big storm in February was the only disappointing part because areas NW got almost two feet of snow while I got maybe a foot that compacted and melted to like four inches by the end of the storm.

It was one of my favorite winters, right up there with 2002-03 for those in the lucky spots and just below the top tier seasons for everyone else. BWI ended up with 39”.

I’d be shocked if there aren’t any more storms to track in the coming weeks. It’s the best winter in at least a decade, and maybe since 2014.

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

^Should be a blizzard warning in effect there

Yeah I was just gonna say, this is a textbook example of a blizzard. I don’t know why they’re hesitating.

[CAPE]

Kinda sucks that we get a mixed event and end up living on a glacier with extreme cold and dry for a week+ while coastal NC gets a pure snow event with blizzard conditions. Weather does what it does.

[Climate175]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Kinda sucks that we get a mixed event and end up living on a glacier with extreme cold and dry for a week+ while coastal NC gets a pure snow event with blizzard conditions. Weather does what it does.

It can be so unpredictable and that’s why there is a thrill in tracking it. Some times we are in the exact bullseye and other times we are in the snow hole. Never know what will be the next. 

[Kevin Reilly]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great beach weekend at KD Hills.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

The weather was awful when I was there in the first week of August every day cloudy with NE winds 20-40 mph and you couldn’t touch the very rough oceans.  It was strange too ocean water temps were 80-82 but the air temp as like 76 with the wind and drizzle from time to time.  
 

Sounds like a great weekend get away!

I mean a shelter in place don’t think I’ve ever seen that before geeze. 

[wasnow215]

9 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

It can be so unpredictable and that’s why there is a thrill in tracking it. Some times we are in the exact bullseye and other times we are in the snow hole. Never know what will be the next. 

Fascinating hobby-originally from New Jersey and was in New York for the blizzard of '96. That was a little west of Atlantic City for the 1978, PD1 1979, and big snowstorm when I moved a little closer to Philadelphia and South Jersey in 1983-Feb 10/11. 
 

Living here south of Richmond obviously tough to get that kind of stuff but still it's fascinating even the tracking!

[Ji]

Kinda sucks that we get a mixed event and end up living on a glacier with extreme cold and dry for a week+ while coastal NC gets a pure snow event with blizzard conditions. Weather does what it does.

Especially you since you are a coastal guy. Must hurt way more for you than the Winchester weenies

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Especially you since you are a coastal guy. Must hurt way more for you than the Winchester weenies

lol no

[TSSN+]

41 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah I was just gonna say, this is a textbook example of a blizzard. I don’t know why they’re hesitating.

Ya this is dumb. Do they not issue blizzard warnings in NC? lol. Why you got a high wind warning and a winter storm warning. How about a blizzard warning? 
 

 

[osfan24]

27 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

The weather was awful when I was there in the first week of August every day cloudy with NE winds 20-40 mph and you couldn’t touch the very rough oceans.  It was strange too ocean water temps were 80-82 but the air temp as like 76 with the wind and drizzle from time to time.  
 

Sounds like a great weekend get away!

I mean a shelter in place don’t think I’ve ever seen that before geeze. 

We were in Myrtle Beach area that week and it was delightful. Usually, it is blazing hot but the northeast winds off the ocean made it so pleasant and it was like that the entire week. Been going down there 20 plus years now and never had a week like that.

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya this is dumb. Do they not issue blizzard warnings in NC? lol. Why you got a high wind warning and a winter storm warning. How about a blizzard warning? 
 

 

I thought someone said they did away with Blizzard Warnings during the pandemic.

[dallen7908]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought someone said they did away with Blizzard Warnings during the pandemic.

They got rid of the blizzard watch a few years before the pandemic.  Blizzard warnings can still be issued but only when blizzard conditions are imminent, i.e., within 12-24 hours.  Winter storm warnings can be issued before blizzard warnings or simultaneously. 

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought someone said they did away with Blizzard Warnings during the pandemic.

Why? Fauci?? Lol!

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

They got rid of the blizzard watch a few years before the pandemic.  Blizzard warnings can still be issued but only when blizzard conditions are imminent, i.e., within 12-24 hours.  Winter storm warnings can be issued before blizzard warnings or simultaneously. 

Kinda makes no sense to get rid of watches for anything. Blizzard watches would definitely make people abandon travel plans more urgently.

[Nomz]

1 hour ago, Climate175 said:

It can be so unpredictable and that’s why there is a thrill in tracking it. Some times we are in the exact bullseye and other times we are in the snow hole. Never know what will be the next. 

If we lived in Syracuse or Buffalo and got 100+ every year, it wouldn't be as fun. Part of the fun comes from the scarcity.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Kinda sucks that we get a mixed event and end up living on a glacier with extreme cold and dry for a week+ while coastal NC gets a pure snow event with blizzard conditions. Weather does what it does.

This is by far the dumbest weather pattern I’ve ever experienced here. It’s a joke that we’ve been this cold and Frederick’s flagship storm the last few years was 2/3 sleet. Definitely looking forward to an El Niño.

[mitchnick]

3k Nam advertising a last minute fail for eastern NC snow. 

[Heisy]

3k Nam advertising a last minute fail for eastern NC snow. 

Differences between that and the 12km are nuts. Probably have to take a blend of other guidance for a forecast down there.

[psuhoffman]

I like this look a lot 

We’ve had a favorable pna most of winter and it’s doing us no favors with precip. The one good qpf event we got was during a brief -pna.  

Ya it mixed but it phased super early and the block was kinda north and the 50/50 relaxed and there was a SE ridge am we still got a full region warning event!  
 

With the level of blocking we have I think we need some -pna. 2010 was a good example of how a -pna can be good if you had enough blocking. 

 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Differences between that and the 12km are nuts. Probably have to take a blend of other guidance for a forecast down there.

nice profile picture, heisy-burg

[psuhoffman]

Btw I’m always trying to learn. My optimism for this weekend was a mistake because while the wave responsible for the threat did trend west so did the 50/50 and the whole TPV which caused the SW to dig to kingdom come and get stuck under the blocked flow. My mistake was adjusting one part of the equation without properly factoring in the other pieces that were likely to adjust also. 

[frd]

Just too much blocking across the top, sounds like even mid-month when things change out West we might have issues, but there is some optimism. 

 

Tomer Burg

 

@burgwx

 

 

This is as ripe as weather patterns get for persistent cold and low-latitude snow in the eastern US. Not only is there a western North American ridge, which drives northerly flow advecting frigid air from Canada south into the US, but there is a broad region of high-latitude blocking with a zonally (west-east) oriented corridor of below normal heights.

 

This kind of pattern is more favorable for significantly suppressing the low track to the south and preventing cyclones from cutting too far north, as opposed to -NAO episodes where the negative height anomalies to the south are smaller in scale with a mean trough axis east of the East US.

 

Tomer Burg

 

@burgwx

·

2h

 

 

As we head into mid-February, we'll see the pattern starting to change as the North Pacific troughing that's been locked in place and driving the western North American ridge breaks down.

 

This will support troughing in the West Coast - perhaps finally breaking the prolonged Rockies snow drought - but what happens farther to the east is a big wild card.

 

Typically, western US troughs mean eastern US ridging - but with strong Greenland blocking persisting with lingering antecedent airmass, the large-scale pattern may favor another cross-county winter storm if this signal persists and subtropical Pacific moisture advected into the US overruns an already suppressed baroclinic zone over the eastern half of the US.

 

[Climate175]

48 minutes ago, Nomz said:

If we lived in Syracuse or Buffalo and got 100+ every year, it wouldn't be as fun. Part of the fun comes from the scarcity.

Spot on.

[87storms]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Great beach weekend at KD Hills.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

Radar looks atrocious down there so far, though admittedly I haven’t been following this one closely as the storm has always looked kinda sus, for lack of a better word. I’d feel much more confident about warning level snowfall in obx than further inland, that’s for sure.

[Chris78]

Icon looks interesting 

[Chris78]