Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

So much for those media outlets calling for 10-15 inches .  6-10 looks like a good bet then sleet .., 

yup; 6-10 seems right for most; still laughing thinking about people two days ago talking about 20/25:1 ratios

This is a classic SWFE event where we thump and end as sleet

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

So much for those media outlets calling for 10-15 inches .  6-10 looks like a good bet then sleet .., 

Lol so we riding the nam? Not saying its wrong but making a call off one model is a bit silly.

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Yeah, warm noses always seem to rear their ugly heads earlier than modeled, at least they did back in NC. Not saying we’ve lost it or storm canceled, but it would be disappointing to lose a lot of this QPF to sleet. That said, hopefully we just stay where we are right now and don’t go in the wrong direction. Lucky to have what we have.

There’s like a 60 knot jet coming from the Gulf. There will definitely be a warm mid level layer and sleet in a wide area. It’s coming into a big high pressure area which causes the huge area of snow out ahead but it eventually becomes too much of a good thing. But sleet in the end is a plus if it freezes into the snow and turns it into concrete. This stuff won’t be going anywhere until we get a major torch. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I am not hating the 12Z suite so far, 6-10 inches of snow followed by some sleet. 

The front end thump is solid. There's a higher ceiling with this than usual too. 

[MANDA]

Thanks @SACRUS for your map postings last 24 hours or so.  I'm on the road today so nice to pull over and scroll through here to get a sense of what the models are doing even if I don't have time to look at upper level stuff etc.

I have to say the RDPS and ICON secondary placement is not bad.  Just have to get it going fast enough to halt the warming mid levels.  If it gets going fast enough it could keep the immediate interior mostly snow.  Either way 6-8 / 6-10 seems like a good call based on the early guidance so far this morning.  Higher end of range with some upside potential if secondary cooperates.

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

yup; 6-10 seems right for most; still laughing thinking about people two days ago talking about 20/25:1 ratios

This is a classic SWFE event where we thump and end as sleet

You say that as if the synoptic setup hasn’t changed significantly in 4 days.

hindsight is 20/20, but at the time it looked significantly colder

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / (12.5)
GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5)
GEFS: 1.4 / (12.8)
Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 / (11.1)
 

[eduggs]

God the NAM is super amped. 12z even moreso than 6z. That would end up as a lot of sleet - ZR even towards the end. Pray it's wrong. ECM, ECM-AI, and GFS looked solid overnight however.

[Jt17]

12z NAM and RGEM look further south with the sleet than 6z fwiw comparing f78 to f84


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[SnoSki14]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

You say that as if the synoptic setup hasn’t changed significantly in 4 days.

hindsight is 20/20, but at the time it looked significantly colder

The problem is the phasing. Without it you risk suppression, with it you risk a lot of mixing. 

You don't have an ideal setup out west given the trough placement. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

God the NAM is super amped. 12z even moreso than 6z. That would end up as a lot of sleet - ZR even towards the end. Pray it's wrong. ECM, ECM-AI, and GFS looked solid overnight however.

Oh stop it's a solid 6-10" dump even with the warmest runs. This would be the biggest storm in years for many. 

[SACRUS]

 

12Z GFS is updating

 

 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The problem is the phasing. Without it you risk suppression, with it you risk a lot of mixing. 

You don't have an ideal setup out west given the trough placement. 

Right, but there was absolutely a path to a very cold, pure snow event. Unfortunately, the trough in Canada is acting more as a mechanism to pull the S/W Northeast instead of east

Honestly We’re not toast yet though. Wouldn’t take THAT much more confluence north of us to press heights a bit more to keep it colder and snowier… not that that’s what I’d forecast at this moment

[Mo Snow]

When the potential is this high I notice many people go into a "1 foot+ or bust" mentality, even though we haven't had 6 inches in years

[Joe4alb]

We have been struggling out here to see even better than advisory level snows over the past few years (only had about 2.5" on the snow last week). 6 - 8", sign me up. 

[Juturna]

Some need to step back from the ledge and not live and die by every run. Still a lot of time before anything is locked in, every day has been a different solution. Looking at consistency, the Euro AI has been fairly adamant in its solutions, and did well last storm if I remember correctly. 
 

Either way, a nice storm is coming. Enjoy it!

[Northof78]

NAM would be a major snowstorm (or basically two separate storms) with possibly some mix depending with the 2nd system, probably 10"+ regionwide..

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

12z NAM and RGEM look further south with the sleet than 6z fwiw comparing f78 to f84


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Disagree about the NAM. Look at this shortwave over OK at 72hr. Takes it straight to Chicago. That's sharper than 6z. Will take a primary and pronounced mid-level lows to WPA and then NYS. No way to block that mid-level warming Sunday afternoon with that upper level setup. Other guidance is less sharp... but NAM is good at this. Let's hope it's still beyond its accurate range.

[BoulderWX]

7 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

You say that as if the synoptic setup hasn’t changed significantly in 4 days.

hindsight is 20/20, but at the time it looked significantly colder

well that was precisely why I cautioned against doing so 5 days out lol - we didnt even have a grasp on synoptic set up.

all good - still going to be a nice 6-10 event

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh stop it's a solid 6-10" dump even with the warmest runs. This would be the biggest storm in years for many. 

What's wrong with describing what the model shows?

[SACRUS]

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

yup; 6-10 seems right for most; still laughing thinking about people two days ago talking about 20/25:1 ratios

This is a classic SWFE event where we thump and end as sleet

I think the northern areas of the forum should see a foot easy, even up to 15-18 in select spots.

[Stormlover74]

It is interesting to me that upton never mentions sleet in their forecasts in these situations even when most models have at least some mixing. In this case Mt holly isn't either

[weatherpruf]

Oh stop it's a solid 6-10" dump even with the warmest runs. This would be the biggest storm in years for many. 

Sure I’d like a big daddy but I’ll take one if these several times in a winter any time. We still have our snowiest month coming up. This might not be it for us.


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[qg_omega]

47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol how is this like every other SWFE in the last 5 years? temps are in the teens and you can get 2" per hour rates

Plenty of SWFE where we had 2 inch thump rates over the past 5 years that went to Sleet

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

[Snowlover11]

Plus who the hell takes the 84Hr nam seriously? We never have. Again could be right, could be wrong. I wouldn’t get all caught up on final solutions till 00z friday or even Saturday m.

[North and West]

It's looking more like a SWFE with a heavy thump to ice mess as opposed to the cold long duration storm it looked like a few days ago but 6-8"+ is nothing to sneeze at especially after recent winters. My concern is that these things tend to trend north and we can't afford many more trends north close to the city at least, I think everybody NW of the city are sitting pretty now.

Why wouldn’t the NWS say that, then? I don’t know enough to say it one way or another, but don’t you think they would mention that?


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[East of the Parkway]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Plus who the hell takes the 84Hr nam seriously? We never have. Again could be right, could be wrong. I wouldn’t get all caught up on final solutions till 00z friday or even Saturday m.

FacebookWX

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Plenty of SWFE where we had 2 inch thump rates over the past 5 years that went to Sleet

There hasn't been plenty of anything over the past 5 years.