Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

 

18Z GFS

 

 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

North and West receiving more snow than NYC mid to south NJ or Eastern LI. Excluding the ICON (a joke) everyone gives the immediate NYC area more snow.

That’s not even close to accurate so no need to debate with you 

[David-LI]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

No idea how mt Holly is coming up with widespread 12-18. This is going to be a great storm but those numbers state wide are insane. 

What if they have a secret extremely accurate AI model that we don't know about ?

[SnoSki14]

Rgem is always over amped and runs warm btw. It's also very inaccurate beyond 48hrs

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

That’s not even close to accurate so no need to debate with you 

Outside of the ICON the differences in totals region wide are not very large regardless of who gets some sleet or not.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

If you follow the new england forum they will disagree. It has not been a stellar season at all, including NNE. Only the upslope areas have really done well. Everyone else is average. 

Also, good luck basing your forecast on the Icon.

I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us.

[SnoSki14]

GFS is definitely not buying the amped camp

[Wxbear25]

GFS out to 51 slightly lower heights pretty much everywhere compared to 12z

continues the trend of holding off a bit longer on capturing the ULL from California

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

GFS is much slower with the o start of the snow

 

 

 

[eduggs]

I'd much rather see the GFS stay south than shift north. You figure maybe its "seeing" something that will foretell a compromise solution down the line. And ya gotta respect it going down with the ship. But it is a shame that it's been an outlier so many times this winter and been wrong pretty much every time. 

[Franklin0529]

Gfs colder/drier

[SACRUS]

GFS has snow overspreading around 6 - 8 am (sunday)

 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs colder/drier

Let the run play out 

Its colder and snowy

[SACRUS]

 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Let the run play out 

Its colder and snowy

Yea it comes in 2 waves basically. GFS on its own. Id sell my left nut to score a coup

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea it comes in 2 waves basically. GFS on its own. Id sell my left nut to score a coup

Gfs is insane

Heavy snow Sunday and Monday morning

 

[Snowlover11]

If only the GFS could score a win.

Crush job.

[winterwarlock]

Goofus on an island

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is insane

Heavy snow Sunday and Monday morning

 

Would love to see the euro or something move to the similar idea of popping that coastal down in nc. That way we can get the goods

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

If only the GFS could score a win.

Crush job.

Let us pray.

Its been trending with a faster coastal transfer. 

[MJO812]

GFS has over 12 inches for NYC with 10:1 and close to 20 inches with Kuchera.

[SACRUS]

1/22 18z GFS total QPF storm

 

 

 

18z Total Snow / Sleet (10:1)

 

 

[Brian5671]

This is where we say the GFS is a good model and that it nailed such and such event

[jdj5211]

.

[Brian5671]

GFS develops the coastal further offshore which helps keep everyone snow

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

This is where we say the GFS is a good model and that it nailed such and such event

Shows the most so it in fact is correct.

 

in all seriousness its on its own.

[Franklin0529]

Gfs is not backing down. It's most likely wrong but it hasn't really budged much at all. Give it that

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18z GFS AI AIGFS  Total QPF storm

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS develops the coastal further offshore which helps keep everyone snow

It transfers a lot faster. This is the best case scenario 

It'd be 14-20" pretty much area wide