Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

From the NWS New York's 2/15/2003 10:45 am AFD:

some things never change

[weatherpruf]

12 hours ago, Nibor said:

 

???

brain fog. 

[Stormlover74]

Crazy but not unexpected at this range

[WeatherGeek2025]

gfs and ai gfs not being hits is concerning!

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From the NWS New York's 2/15/2003 10:45 am AFD:

That was when the MRF first moved to the GFS (first winter season) and the AVN to NAM

[mattinpa]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gfs and ai gfs not being hits is concerning!

Not yet. If we see this trend throughout the day there may be some concern. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gfs and ai gfs not being hits is concerning!

Only if the other models do the same thing

[NorthShoreWx]

24 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

We are driving from Hartford back to Long Island on Sunday afternoon from my older’s volleyball tournament into the evening so…I’m fully expecting a storm and because we’ll be on the road, I’m taking full credit for it . 

Might be a good day for the ferry.

[SI Mailman]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gfs and ai gfs not being hits is concerning!

Nah, if there's one model you don't want your side this far out it's that one.  Remember how it was hugging 8 inches of snow for everyone 12/27 for an entire week?  I ended up with 2 inches and sleet.  

[hooralph]

22 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

What no PBP anymore??? gfs is rolling 

PBP are usually brutal - full of overreactions and bad early takes. 

[SACRUS]

It'll be interesting to see the GEFS mean (12z) Op vs Ensembles

[BoulderWX]

even if we don't cash in this time, this has the potential to be a historic storm for the south -- latest depiction from GFS shows a foot plus in parts of AL, GA, SC, and NC - would be truly epic for them down there - I have family in NC and they're all going nuts asking me about this. 

 

CMC up next! 

[SACRUS]

 

12Z QPF Totals (NYC)

ICON: 0.9 - 1.1
GFS: Trace
GGEM: 0.6 - 0.8
GEFS: 0.5 - 0.6
UKMET: 1.00 - >1.00
Euro AI AIFS: 0.5 - 0.6
Euro: 0.7 - 0.8
GEPS: 0.9 
EPS: 0.6 - 0.7

[Snowlover11]

Lol icon moved north, gfs went south basically a flip by both.

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Lol icon moved north, gfs went south basically a flip by both.

CMC unloading a major ice storm across NC and parts of the south - lets see if she makes the turn up the coast. 

 

edit: she definitely looks to make the turn - moderate snow into the area at 120; skirting east at 126 - mod snow still in the area

[SnowGoose69]

CMC definitely moving towards the GFS/Euro idea it seems so far 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

CMC definitely moving towards the GFS/Euro idea it seems so far 

GFS/Euro? they're completely different at this time you mean moving towards GFS

[TriPol]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gfs and ai gfs not being hits is concerning!

My man... you go back and forth with every model run. Following weather is not live by the model, die by the model. It's the trend. You follow trends made over multiple days by multiple models. You also look at WHY, exactly, the GFS went south. Does it make sense or did it do something wrong?

This is why we're on a forum with professional meteorologists. If it hits, it hits. If it doesn't, it doesn't. Either way, we get extremely cold, dense air.

[WeatherGeek2025]

cmc is a big hit

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc is a big hit

I wouldn’t say “big hit”

[SACRUS]

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

I wouldn’t say “big hit”

6-12 is a big hit it's not major but big

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc is a big hit

Not as good as 0z but still great

[SACRUS]

Total QPF  (down from 00z but not much)

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

6-12 is a big hit it's not major but big

Yep a little less but a good hit

[Jt17]

I wouldn’t say “big hit”

If there was ever a time to consider Kuchera it's with a storm like this. Gives the area almost a foot.


.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc is a big hit

It's significant, but notably lighter than the 0z solution.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, Jt17 said:

If there was ever a time to consider Kuchera it's with a storm like this. Gives the area almost a foot.


.

Yes I agree those temps will bring high ratios 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

If there was ever a time to consider Kuchera it's with a storm like this. Gives the area almost a foot.


.

 

[eduggs]

I gotta admit, the GFS/AIGFS make me nervous. That ULL in the Southwest has to eject. AND it needs to be well timed with northern stream shortwaves dropping south through MT and the Dakotas. There are always failure modes.