Hurricane Melissa

[olafminesaw]

Could be the start of an EWRC

[WxWatcher007]

I think this would actually be bad timing for an ERC. If anything, you want it close enough to landfall that it can’t rebound from its peak. A cycle now would just expand the wind field and effectively give Melissa 24 hours to potentially RI again. Note how the 06z HAFS both intensify upon final approach.

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Could be the start of an EWRC

That's what I'm thinking and why I think RI halted for now. This would be bad timing for EWRC because it would have time to intensify again before landfall and expand the wind field. 

[Chinook]

Was that an intensification of 50 kt to 120kt in 24 hours? Or am I wrong?

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Was that an intensification of 50 kt to 120kt in 24 hours? Or am I wrong?

60 knot increase from 5AM EDT Saturday’s 60 knots to 5AM today’s 120 knots!

[BooneWX]

IMO an ERC down the road wouldn’t be likely anyways. As it gets closer to the coast and higher terrain, the core is likely to tighten up with frictional convergence. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Pressure has dropped to 947 mb, so intensification has resumed.

[Chinook]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

60 knot increase from 5AM EDT Saturday’s 60 knots to 5AM today’s 120 knots!

double the speed, 4x the kinetic energy and also 4x the drag force on objects.

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, Chinook said:

double the speed, 4x the kinetic energy and also 4x the drag force on objects.

It’s incredible 

[Radtechwxman]

So do we think ewrc is trying to start or not? Sure looks like it on radar. 

[PSLwx]

Link to live Jamaica cams posted on Twitter:

https://laurentviewer.netlify.app/

[WxSynopsisDavid]

30 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

So do we think ewrc is trying to start or not? Sure looks like it on radar. 

No, recon data does not find or support a double wind maxima. No signs of a concentric eyewall either. Pressure is again lower on recent pass. Pressure continues to drop but winds are not catching up yet. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

943mb

[WxSynopsisDavid]

That’s a 4mb drop between recon passes

[hawkeye_wx]

The wind still hasn't risen at all today.  Satellite looks like cat 4, but recon hasn't found any cat 4 FL wind.

[Radtechwxman]

I wonder why wind isn't responding with such big pressure drops and a relatively small storm. Kind of odd. If it was bigger or actively going through EWRC would make more sense. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Dropsonde says ~944 mb.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The wind still hasn't risen at all today.  Satellite looks like cat 4, but recon hasn't found any cat 4 FL wind.

With Melissa being a small, compact storm it’s possible they haven’t found the “sweet spot” in the northeast quad. Ive seen in years past where recon sometimes miss the sweet spot with these small compact systems. Other thing to consider is Melissa is undergoing some sort of internal process. Not an ERC but there are many different types of internal processes that a cyclone can undergo.

[WolfStock1]

 

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

double the speed, 4x the kinetic energy and also 4x the drag force on objects.

 

Wouldn't area also be a factor?   E.g. reduced area during EWRC could theoretically result in increased wind speed while keeping kinetic energy the same right?    (or vice versa - total kinetic energy could be increasing while wind speed remains about the same?)

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Latest dropsonde data supports Melissa is not only intensifying but is likely hours away from another potential rapid intensification process. Both images are 2 hours apart, and show an incredible structure change to Melissa’s eye. So while the internal process is not an ERC, it was very much structural and likely about to wrap up.

The internal process was truly hindering mixing. First pass subsidence was not fully established. The second pass subsidence is highly noted. This is a precursor to a high-end hurricane going nuclear.

[Radtechwxman]

27 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Latest dropsonde data supports Melissa is not only intensifying but is likely hours away from another potential rapid intensification process. Both images are 2 hours apart, and show an incredible structure change to Melissa’s eye. So while the internal process is not an ERC, it was very much structural and likely about to wrap up.

The internal process was truly hindering mixing. First pass subsidence was not fully established. The second pass subsidence is highly noted. This is a precursor to a high-end hurricane going nuclear.

Very fascinating stuff. Thank you for sharing 

[WxWatcher007]

939.9 extrapolated

Unflagged 129kt FL and 132kt SFMR.

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

939.9 extrapolated

Unflagged 129kt FL and 132kt SFMR.

Seems like Melissa is entering another RI phase. 

[Radtechwxman]

IR satellite imagery really starting to ramp up again. Cloud tops rapidly cooling especially in the southern part of the circulation. 

[WxWatcher007]

942mb on the latest VDM 

[Radtechwxman]

https://x.com/pettuswx/status/1982527974378217764?s=49

[TriPol]

ERC cancel

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The wind still hasn't risen at all today.  Satellite looks like cat 4, but recon hasn't found any cat 4 FL wind.

They found them. 

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

 

Wouldn't area also be a factor?   E.g. reduced area during EWRC could theoretically result in increased wind speed while keeping kinetic energy the same right?    (or vice versa - total kinetic energy could be increasing while wind speed remains about the same?)

just simple kinetic energy = 1/2 mv^2. For integrated kinetic energy, there's more to it. (I'm not sure how to look that up.)

[cptcatz]

Looks like the plane is going home. Anyone know when the next flight is scheduled?