Hurricane Melissa

[cptcatz]

First pass of the morning shows it weaker than NHC estimated. Is it topping out?

[cptcatz]

Interesting dropsonde though. Really impressive winds higher up but not reaching down to the surface. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The new recon plane suggests this is actually not a cat 4. The latest NHC estimate is too low by 8 mb.  The pressure has only dropped from 959 to 952 over the last several hours.  Also, the new plane did not find any increase in wind on its first pass, whereas the NHC increased the wind by 20 mph.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest NHC update is too low by 8 mb.  The pressure has only dropped from 959 to 952 over the last several hours.

Looks pretty impressive on satellite though. 

[Windspeed]

That was a NW to SE pass. I'd imagine the NE quadrant isn't too far off from ADT. Also, the pressure is still dropping, and there is a bit of lag time. It is good we have recon out there at present because I'd expect to see continued signs of intensification on the next four passes for the mission.

[HKY_WX]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

We've seen these trochoidal wobble around islands including Jamaica, as well. Especially the slow w/wsw drifters. There are a variety of scenarios that are less than "worst-case", a little early to be declaring anything

That's a good point, but most canes normally approach Jamaica from the east on a westward heading. At that trajectory it lends itself to the frictional land effects and wobbles away from the island. This one will be heading north as its caught up in the trough and the angle of approach will make that scenario unlikely. It's obviously still possible though. The only beneficial factor wind wise would be some small weakening on approach but rainfall wise they are completely effed.

[jbenedet]

Another track with Bermuda in the crosshairs. Still a ways out but losing track of how many times Bermuda has been under significant threat of direct hits from canes past 3 tropical seasons.

 

[cptcatz]

Also interesting to note is this is a pretty small storm right now. Impressive winds barely reach past the eyewall. 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SAMPLING MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK... 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Further rapid intensification is expected 
through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity.  Melissa is 
expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica 
Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data 
is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

[Torch Tiger]

43 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

That's a good point, but most canes normally approach Jamaica from the east on a westward heading. At that trajectory it lends itself to the frictional land effects and wobbles away from the island. This one will be heading north as its caught up in the trough and the angle of approach will make that scenario unlikely. It's obviously still possible though. The only beneficial factor wind wise would be some small weakening on approach but rainfall wise they are completely effed.

Yeah I agree with that. Weakening or structural changes, another way this could be less than worst-case.

[cptcatz]

Second pass: slightly higher winds in the NE eyewall but no change in pressure and no support of 140 mph winds. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Crazy that 4 of 5 hurricanes this year have been cat 4+

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Second pass: slightly higher winds in the NE eyewall but no change in pressure and no support of 140 mph winds. 

I think the NHC got a bit ahead of themselves here. 

[dan11295]

It appears NHC overshot the actual winds and pressure drop with the 5 am advisory. But I understand operationally why they would not want to drop the winds, which could imply a weakening system. They obviously do not want anyone to start letting their guard down with the main rain shield now very close to reaching Jamaica.

[Windspeed]

I think the NHC got a bit ahead of themselves here. 

No, they didn't get ahead of themselves. Their discussion followed ADT. Without reconnaissance data, you use what you have access to. Obviously, satellite isn't always as accurate, but it's usually close. Structurally, Melissa looks to be intensifying based on remote sensing data. But recon shows it's a little behind satellite trends. Visually, I don't think anyone would argue that Melissa looks like an intensifying Category 4. I don't think it will matter by this afternoon, regardless.

[hawkeye_wx]

3rd recon pass this morning continues to find a steady-state storm.  The pressure is 953 mb, actually up a hair, and 120 kts flight level in the right (strongest) quad, which equates to 125 mph at the surface using the NHC's 0.9 method.

[Maxwell03]

The western tracks by intensity models are easier on Kingston, but worse for tourist hubs Montego Bay and Negril. 

[Windspeed]

Most recent long-range radar image.

[MN Transplant]

Amazing that this thing is still 36+ hours from landfall.

[WxWatcher007]

The last dropsonde found surface winds of 111kt with 128kt at 925mb in the northern section of the eyewall, so while potentially a little high, the NHC is in the ballpark. We’ll see what the next recon flight finds. 

[cptcatz]

25 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

The western tracks by intensity models are easier on Kingston, but worse for tourist hubs Montego Bay and Negril. 

I'm no expert on the socioeconomics of Jamaica but I would guess the tourist areas would fare better than the higher poverty areas of Kingston. Kingston getting the worse of it would likely cause a humanitarian crisis. 

[yoda]

Still 140mph at 11... 953mb

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

[yoda]

 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Still 140mph at 11... 953mb

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

That wasn’t released til 10:56 AM EDT. That’s very late for the 11AM. And discussion still wasn’t out yet. It wasn’t released til 10:59AM!

[yoda]

Just now, GaWx said:

That wasn’t released til 10:56 AM EDT. And discussion still wasn’t out yet.

The forecast advisory was out earlier 

[yoda]

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft 
data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this 
morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite 
imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible 
imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile 
the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as 
low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye 
presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine, 
with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some 
evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit, 
there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly 
shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s 
primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of 
the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700- 
mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind 
retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m 
average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this 
data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and 
objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher, 
ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at 
120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be 
a little generous based on the aircraft data.

The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft 
fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for 
the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa 
imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave 
trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to 
erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast, 
with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track,  Melissa's core 
is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning, 
moving across the island and then approaching and moving over 
eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become 
tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread 
starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google 
DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from 
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern 
Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas 
and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was 
nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again 
blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach 
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). 

It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is 
temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a 
secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric 
reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data 
occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the 
guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this 
time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5 
hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140 
kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles 
could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach 
Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only 
exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over 
the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses 
over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a 
major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in 
60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should 
cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane 
intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5 
days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the 
intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity 
aids. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica:  Seek shelter now.  Damaging winds and heavy rainfall 
today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash 
flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating 
winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Extensive 
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication 
outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening 
storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday 
night and Tuesday morning.
 
2. Haiti:  Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and 
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, 
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of 
communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the 
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western 
Haiti on Tuesday.
 
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce 
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern 
portions of the country.
 
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: 
Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a 
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday 
and Wednesday.  In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash 
flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in 
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 16.4N  76.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.4N  77.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 16.6N  77.8W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 16.9N  78.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.8N  77.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 19.2N  76.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 20.9N  75.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 25.5N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 32.0N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

The forecast advisory was out earlier 

Yeah, it was first at 10:54AM. All of it was later vs average release time.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah I don’t think there was any reason to take the winds down, especially when the forecast is for 140kt 24 hours from now. 

[NJwx85]

The shear to the West, Northwest has been steadily decreasing. Strengthening should resume later today.

 

[olafminesaw]

Could be a little bit of upwelling too. She's been crawling along