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41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A reminder about the EPS weeklies. Beyond two weeks, skill disappears. So, temperature or 500 mb patterns shown for weeks 3-6 could be dramatically different from the actual outcomes. So, right now February could start cool but not severely cold. Moderation will then follow. Afterward, it’s uncertain how things will evolve.

Pretty big update upcoming this year on those. Where they will now run separately from the 00z eps. Instead of as an extension, like now. Double the members. Plus run it every day. I'll be interested to see how these do following that. My biggest issue with them has always been because they just extrapolate the 00z eps. That's not going to be the case anymore after this. These sound like very promising changes to me. Looking forward to this.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/173/earth-system-science/next-extended-range-configuration-ifs-cycle-48r1

20230119_195940.thumb.jpg.2041e1505dd0ae4ef620d992894e9856.jpg

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