winterwx21 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 23 minutes ago, eduggs said: GFS queueing up a parade of rain storms per usual. At least it hasn't fooled us with too many fantasy blizzards so far this winter. CMC pretty warm for the midweek storm as well. We'll have to see if Euro holds with the colder solution tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 UK is close for Sun night-Monday but has nudged slightly warmer and westward the past 2 runs. All in all an uninspiring 0z. Hard to see a lot of wiggle room in the outcome, especially on the eastern flank. But we're definitely close enough to stay invested. Even the ICON scenario with snow for most cannot be completely discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: UK is close for Sun night-Monday but has nudged slightly warmer and westward the past 2 runs. All in all an uninspiring 0z. Hard to see a lot of wiggle room in the outcome, especially on the eastern flank. But we're definitely close enough to stay invested. Even the ICON scenario with snow for most cannot be completely discounted. I would say it doesn't look good for NYC metro and coast for Sunday night/Monday. Hell, it's dicey for me north of 84 where it's looking like snow/rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I would say it doesn't look good for NYC metro and coast for Sunday night/Monday. Hell, it's dicey for me north of 84 where it's looking like snow/rain. Yea, Sun/Mon doesn’t look good for anyone south of Orange County. The UKMET has gotten progressively more unfavorable since 0Z last night. Here’s the ICON zoomed into Rockland, goes from less than an inch in western Rockland to nothing in the eastern part of the county https://weather.us/model-charts/german/rockland/snow-depth-in/20230126-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 0z Euro doesn't look good for sunday night either. You have to go way NW. Maybe a couple inches for Sussex county. What we're seeing tonight isn't a surprise ... this event hasn't looked good for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Euro also came in warmer for the wednesday storm. This 0z run doesn't have the front end dump for NYC that the 12z run had. Mostly rain for NYC and you have to go to northwest NJ to get some accumulating snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 When was the last time NYC didn't even have an inch of snow as of February 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 When was the last time NYC didn't even have an inch of snow as of February 1? Never, the latest in history was 1/29/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Euro also came in warmer for the wednesday storm. This 0z run doesn't have the front end dump for NYC that the 12z run had. Mostly rain for NYC and you have to go to northwest NJ to get some accumulating snow on this run. The Euro went west/warmer for both events. Not a surprise. The 12z EPS didn’t like either one of them for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Never, the latest in history was 1/29/73 Looks like we're going to break that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro went west/warmer for both events. Not a surprise. The 12z EPS didn’t like either one of them for our area Good chance both of these events won't work out for NYC, and then just cold/dry for several days after that before a big warmup in early February. Slight chance next wednesday will work out or that we'll score something during the cold window late month, but I'm thinking it's more likely we'll get to mid February without an inch of snow for NYC. That would be off the charts horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 It's going to be a kick in the ass if the coast strikes out on all the storms coming up. Anyway back to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 hours ago, TriPol said: Looks like we're going to break that record. 97/98 made it to March with .5”. There will still be blockbuster winters in the future, but also allot of these everything goes wrong years as well. We were always on the border of a true snow and winter region New England and the paltry mid Atlantic. Unfortunately we are moving into their zone, where duds are just part of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Good chance both of these events won't work out for NYC, and then just cold/dry for several days after that before a big warmup in early February. Slight chance next wednesday will work out or that we'll score something during the cold window late month, but I'm thinking it's more likely we'll get to mid February without an inch of snow for NYC. That would be off the charts horrible. That's looking likely. Lots of precip coming up, none of it frozen. February looks mild. March is a wild card but it wouldn't shock me if that's where the snow happens like in 97/98. The rapidly changing wavelengths and potential SSWE in Feb could make it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 That's looking likely. Lots of precip coming up, none of it frozen. February looks mild. March is a wild card but it wouldn't shock me if that's where the snow happens like in 97/98. The rapidly changing wavelengths and potential SSWE in Feb could make it interesting. EPS has sped up the change to canonical La Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA/SE ridge). This is 1/31. Not surprising given the MJO is already in the Indian Ocean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS has sped up the change to canonical La Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA/SE ridge). This is 1/31. Not surprising given the MJO is already in the Indian Ocean You just find any tweet that cancels winter. Amazing 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 DT (WxRisk) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 You just find any tweet that cancels winter. AmazingThat is fact. That’s what the EPS shows, it’s not opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I hope everyone gets their sleep rather than tracking storms, because it’s just not happening this year. It’s not the season for us. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will mostly cloudy, rainy, and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and perhaps upper 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 47° Temperatures will average above normal during the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.8° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 NYC's winter futility rankings through January 18th: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I actually thought the eps did a better job squashing the se ridge last night. With a bit less of a western trough late. Regardless, I'm just not thinking very much about beyond day 7 currently with strat activity ramping up in this period. Yesterdays 12z eps Last night's 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Perhaps a shot at something before the months ends but if not then that’s it’s…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(37/45) or +8. Month to date is 43.9[+9.9]. Should be 43.0[+9.3] by the 27th. Reached 47 here yesterday{at midnight} Today: 42-45, wind e., Rain 9am-1am, 42 tomorrow AM Snowiest part of the winter and still can not get a 100% chance of at least 1". 0% till the 25th/26th. The 26th. does mark the start of Normal to BN T's and maybe some accidental snow. 43*(67%RH) here at 6am. 44* at 7am. 45* at 9am.(drizzle since 8am). 46* at 10am. 45* at Noon. 47* at 4pm. 43* at 8pm. Thunder/Rain at 9:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: You just find any tweet that cancels winter. Amazing It's all been correct so far. No sign of anything remotely resembling winter. The "pattern change" will amount to a couple colder days and continued rainstorms. Yawn. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 hours ago, TriPol said: When was the last time NYC didn't even have an inch of snow as of February 1? A couple years did it I think. I know 97/98 waited till mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That's looking likely. Lots of precip coming up, none of it frozen. February looks mild. March is a wild card but it wouldn't shock me if that's where the snow happens like in 97/98. The rapidly changing wavelengths and potential SSWE in Feb could make it interesting. What amazes me the most is not the pattern this winter which has predominantly favored the SW for winter weather, it's the fact that CPK has not even had a fluke half inch yet. I mean not a snow squall, not a 70 degree monster SE ridge 4 inch snowstorm like Feb 2018, not a snow QUICKLY changing to rain after a half inch, not a weak trailing wave like Jan 2012, nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's all been correct so far. No sign of anything remotely resembling winter. The "pattern change" will amount to a couple colder days and continued rainstorms. Yawn. He has just been ripping off Twitter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What amazes me the most is not the pattern this winter which has predominantly favored the SW for winter weather, it's the fact that CPK has not even had a fluke half inch yet. I mean not a snow squall, not a 70 degree monster SE ridge 4 inch snowstorm like Feb 2018, not a snow QUICKLY changing to rain after a half inch, not a weak trailing wave like Jan 2012, nothing. It is amazing. same here locally-other than a half inch on the grass in mid Dec-nothing-not even a flurry. Just warm and wet I think we are at 21 or 22 straight days above normal temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I hereby name winter 2022-2023 the winter of Seattle. Just a boring, dreary winter. I have only worn my true winter coat about 4 times. Blame me for buying skis and a snowblower this year. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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