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January 2023


wdrag
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26 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looks very difficult to see any significant snow the first week or so of January.  So far all ensembles have less than 1" of snow for NYC through Jan 9.  That can change, but unlikely to show much before Jan 6. 

Screen Shot 2022-12-25 at 7.25.31 AM.png

Nothing is going to happen before January 10

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No question about warmth coming for about 7 to 10 days, including probably the first 6 days of January.  After that we may start normalizing and seeing some hints of winter. No pronouncements on when but already GFS hints around the 6th-7th, for multiple consecutive cycles, so far only N&W suburbs. This may end up warm and no risk for winter beyond Jan 6 for awhile,  but I'm not that bold nor accurate. 

All I know: all the talk of these patterns and what it's going to take to generate snow in our NYC subforum is not working too well (less than 50/50 chance). I am concerned about bold pronouncements and not leaving the door ajar for deviations.  The big seasonal snows so far in the eastern USA, lee of the Great Lakes. 

Regarding winter: I would guess now that snowfall through Dec is below normal in CP, that it will be a below normal winter, though not necessarily always. I just hope it's not 1972-73 with the 2.8" total snowfall and latest ever measurable 0.1 arriving 1/29.  (please correct me if I misread xmacis).  Let's root for reality dismissing this possibility as soon as possible. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if we can get a SSW or at least disruption in mid-January to shift from a warm start to a colder pattern again. The  extended EPS and GEFS are hinting at that. So we’ll probably need to see it within 8-10 days in order to have more confidence. 
 

 

I am hopeful....  not sure if this is the pattern that SSW can evolve???

I just don't have any skill at using these tools.  I'm stuck at confidence in operational and ensemble model signals at most to about 264 hours (11 days) and this 8-11 stuff is with cyclical consistency.

 I don't think there has been much, if any, improvement beyond 10 or 11 days, from when I was starting topics 2 years ago on this subforum out to 11 days in summer (flooding rain threat from tropics).  I also don't look at this as closely as yourself and many other skilled long rangers here and elsewhere.  

Keep posting here for January as it becomes more evident.  

I am very-very sure that our snow threats so far are partly minimized by few if any southern streamers into our area.  This part of the pattern has to change. Northern jet is dominating so far.  This past weeks event would have been much much productive snow wise in the midwest, had there been a southern streamer. Jan 78 for example.  So I need to see much more southern stream energy available to interact with the northern jet-confluence zone in far northern New England.  

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The series of wave breakers previously discussed is still progressing well on ensembles guidance. The western cyclonic break and eastern ridge break are now seen well on ensembles, to the point of being represented with the opposite signed wave following them now. Meanwhile the wave breakers in the Pacific associated with the retrograding vortex are progressing towards an Aleutian low. This should all allow some +PNA to take shape following week 1. Here's how that's looking on the eps. However the gefs isn't really that different either. 

577267032_index(1).thumb.png.c3055a6c2b2f353394379f4823740a66.png

 

These same Pacific wave breaks, as they occur, are sending heat flux up into the stratosphere. It's a known area for doing so. Hence my no pain no gain comments. Guidance has started picking this up as well. There's definitely a realistic possibility of some action up there. As well as some more promising prospects for winter here, for hopefully a more extended period if we play our cards right. It will be very interesting to me to see what happens. I'll be watching the trends with everything. The situation may seem hopeless currently. But it's far from that IMHO. 

1092643474_index(3).thumb.png.235e387b5288385856041a2c56ee09e7.png

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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if we can get a SSW or at least disruption in mid-January to shift from a warm start to a colder pattern again. The  extended EPS and GEFS are hinting at that. So we’ll probably need to see it within 8-10 days in order to have more confidence. 
 

 

Isn't Jan 20th now the usual start to our winters?  It seems to be that way for the last decade or so.

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's January snowfall in past winters when no measurable snowfall was recorded through December 31st.

image.jpeg.64b04c41c2deda238f4dd17467f32243.jpeg

Definitely smells like a ratter given historic context but we've also had a -4 AO and no snowfall this month, which hasn't happened before. 

Not sure precedent applies as much anymore 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's January snowfall in past winters when no measurable snowfall was recorded through December 31st.

image.jpeg.64b04c41c2deda238f4dd17467f32243.jpeg

Wow some of these winters happened a long time ago.

It would be interesting to see if the first four chronologically 1877-78, 1885-86, 1891-92 and 1943-44 were very cold winters and had any below zero lows (like 2015-16 did in February)?

 

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely smells like a ratter given historic context but we've also had a -4 AO and no snowfall this month, which hasn't happened before. 

Not sure precedent applies as much anymore 

Yeah this 100% feels different than the ratters of the past. 

97/98, 11/12, 19/20 never had a setup like we are in/just had. The aforementioned seasons looked hopeless from minute one. 

Maybe 01/02 since the models constantly teased us, however again it never had the setup we just had outside of modeling.

Half the forum already had a snowfall, one storm was northwest of us, the next one is going to end up Southeast of us and weak. We were stuck in the middle.

I posted it before, but if December 2000 did not phase on time, if December 2010 was just a smidge east we would be in the same boat as this year. Shows how luck/timing plays in. We were spoiled for years now where it seemed like every single good setup produced. 

Could this be 89/90 where we actually WERE in a good pattern that did not produce much then went on to rat? It could just as easily be 12/13 and we had a spectacular finish.

 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow some of these winters happened a long time ago.

It would be interesting to see if the first four chronologically 1877-78, 1885-86, 1891-92 and 1943-44 were very cold winters and had any below zero lows (like 2015-16 did in February)?

 

Only winters 1885-86 and 2015-16 had subzero lows.

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I think many of us hopefully would settle for the median in Don's Jan plot (4.8").  That's my goal for January CP, not that I live there, but I am setting the bar low.  I want to eliminate the potential for a record late measurable event and at least get the median amount as statistically allocated from previous winter T snowfall through Dec. That would be about 4" below the 30 year climo January average, which I think is 8.8" at CP.   Don's average for the Trace winters to date, was 7.5" but skewed higher than the median because of the Jan 2016 27" event. 

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah this 100% feels different than the ratters of the past. 

97/98, 11/12, 19/20 never had a setup like we are in/just had. The aforementioned seasons looked hopeless from minute one. 

Maybe 01/02 since the models constantly teased us, however again it never had the setup we just had outside of modeling.

Half the forum already had a snowfall, one storm was northwest of us, the next one is going to end up Southeast of us and weak. We were stuck in the middle.

I posted it before, but if December 2000 did not phase on time, if December 2010 was just a smidge east we would be in the same boat as this year. Shows how luck/timing plays in. We were spoiled for years now where it seemed like every single good setup produced. 

Could this be 89/90 where we actually WERE in a good pattern that did not produce much then went on to rat? It could just as easily be 12/13 and we had a spectacular finish.

 

Very similar to 01 02. JB was hyping a major cooldown and snow for the east coast around Christmas that never materialized and the lakes got blasted during the holidays

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9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah this 100% feels different than the ratters of the past. 

97/98, 11/12, 19/20 never had a setup like we are in/just had. The aforementioned seasons looked hopeless from minute one. 

Maybe 01/02 since the models constantly teased us, however again it never had the setup we just had outside of modeling.

Half the forum already had a snowfall, one storm was northwest of us, the next one is going to end up Southeast of us and weak. We were stuck in the middle.

I posted it before, but if December 2000 did not phase on time, if December 2010 was just a smidge east we would be in the same boat as this year. Shows how luck/timing plays in. We were spoiled for years now where it seemed like every single good setup produced. 

Could this be 89/90 where we actually WERE in a good pattern that did not produce much then went on to rat? It could just as easily be 12/13 and we had a spectacular finish.

 

I recall 01/02 having a decent NAO (at least for a time), but a horrible Pacific.

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10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Very similar to 01 02. JB was hyping a major cooldown and snow for the east coast around Christmas that never materialized and the lakes got blasted during the holidays

I remember all the hype due to the models, but did we ever have a good a setup as we just had?

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Don, Bluewave, and undoubtedly many others on our subforum,  can remind us once in a while that stats are only as good as the database. The larger the sample size, the broader the perspective.  I'll venture that our sample size is pretty small. and that OUTLIERS occur to broaden the database possibilities. I view stats as helpful in taming my enthusiasm, but always aware that that they are not encompassing enough regarding future predictability.   So we had a good Dec pattern that didn't produce. Imperfect predictability. 

In the future we can have a seemingly unfavorable-benign pattern and suddenly we're talking an unexpected accumulative snow event.  

I'd like to see the latter occur first, before any stratwarm or the more or less typical roughly Feb 4-14 window of decent snowfall potential.  I want to see if it can still measure snow in CP by mid January.  

I'm probably off-line for a day or two til the north of I-90 modeled (NYS-MA) snow-ice events of early Jan 2023,  end up a little further south, closer to I-80 (PA-NJ-NYC). 

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