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January 2023


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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

How are upper 50's/ Low 60's in January not a big deal?

It's the equivalent of temps being 20-30 degrees below normal in early July.

Because they are like home runs in baseball and touchdowns in football, there are so many of them now, they lose its specialness after a while.

Central Park number of DJF days with maximum temperatures of 60 degrees or more:

January 1869 to February 1975: 233

December 1975 to February 2022: 223

By the way, today I learned the first day of official Central Park record keeping there was 9.0" of snow.

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6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s only a matter of time before NYC goes T for a winter. You can’t just keep getting warmer and deny that. Unless your JB.

 

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This post is straight up trolling and should be deleted. We get it…. Your touting a futility record. 

 

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Good Friday morning all!  Dec 30.  00z-06z/30 cycles just about complete.  I will keep paying attention from Jan 6 afternoon, onwards into mid-month.  Main upper level jet will sink to near 35 degrees N lat with a first 250MB jet core moving through the mid-south around Jan 7 -  per all ensembles.  Implied subtle blocking (above normal heights-normalized view attached) in south central Canada  - just west of James Bay,  which for me is favorable. The NAEFS D8-14 is clearly cooling the southeast USA (attached). Some sort of low pressure action is implied here in the mid-Atlantic and possibly into the northeast USA. 

GGEM/EC ops not on board with the flip-flopping GFS op for Jan 6-7, so this first opportunity is far from certain... I'd like to see 3 consecutive 6 hour GFS cycles keep a nice 3"+ positive snow depth change here,  before raising hopes any further.  I think the EC and GGEM are going to have to start adding a coastal low pressure threat here very soon in future 12z/00z cycles, or this GFS flip flopping snow risk is going to fail for Jan 6-7. 

In fact the NWS Blend of Models (BOM) which yesterday highlighted snowfall for the NYC subforum is most recently lacking any snow through midday Jan 7. So you can see the Blend of Models flip-flops based on the inputs (I don't think it had the 06z/30 GFS op involved-BOM seems to be lagged by 6 hours).  I've attached yesterdays and the the most recent 06z/30 version. 

Also attached the NAEFS (50+ members GEFS-GEPS) temp prob D8-14; and the EPS normalized 500MB anomaly as an example of the subtle blocking west of James Bay, which is persistent from this time forward into mid month and suggested at times by the GEFS-GEPS. Click and check dates and look for yourself in Tropical Tidbits and the NAEFS web sites.

I'll check back tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2022-12-29 at 3.44.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-12-30 at 6.00.51 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-12-30 at 6.55.21 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-12-30 at 6.59.12 AM.png

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19 hours ago, Allsnow said:

History has shown this is the beginnings of the blueprint to a bad bad winter. Will it be a 5-10 inch winter or 2019-2020 is still up for debate 

That’s different than winter being over.

 

You’re confusing the two.

 

And you’re doing it for a responses most likely.

 

There are three more months of winter. One way or another you will have more winter weather.

 

Are we going to get near a normal snowfall? No. Not likely.

 

Are we going to go above normal snowfall? No. Almost certainly not.

There is plenty of historical evidence to back up those two claims.

 

But saying winter is over on 12/30 is disingenuous.

 

 

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The temperature variances in the city during these warm ups astound me over the last 10 years?

 

 why can’t the city cool off at night during these warm periods? Why is the UHI stronger than it is during any other period? It makes no sense.

 

Central Park at 48F. Every suburb is 10-15 degrees cooler at 8 am!

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28 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:


why isn't this post at least warned? it's a troll post, winter started not even ten days ago, we have another 2 full months of winter. come on moderators, this is absolute fake news!


.

He is a good poster but has been trolling. He's not serious at all.

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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

The temperature variances in the city during these warm ups astound me over the last 10 years?

 

 why can’t the city cool off at night during these warm periods? Why is the UHI stronger than it is during any other period? It makes no sense.

 

Central Park at 48F. Every suburb is 10-15 degrees cooler at 8 am!

I woke up at 27F on the Tempest down by me. Yeah, the difference is pretty staggering. I’m just about the opposite of a UHI being near the pine barrens with my home situated at the edge of a forest, but yeah. 

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Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

I woke up at 27F down by me. Yeah, the difference is pretty staggering. I’m just about the opposite of a UHI being near the pine barrens with my home situated at the edge of a forest, but yeah. 

but it seems to only happen in these extreme variances when we are transitioning from a cold air mass to a warmer air mass. 

I just don’t understand why that is and I wonder if there was a study on that

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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

The temperature variances in the city during these warm ups astound me over the last 10 years?

 

 why can’t the city cool off at night during these warm periods? Why is the UHI stronger than it is during any other period? It makes no sense.

 

Central Park at 48F. Every suburb is 10-15 degrees cooler at 8 am!

No CAA. Strong winds like we had with the past cold snap help to even the surface temps out more. With strong winds, temps are more uniform. On days like today with no CAA, rural and suburban sites see radiational cooling, which doesn't happen in the city because of UHI.

Quote

but it seems to only happen in these extreme variances when we are transitioning from a cold air mass to a warmer air mass. 

I just don’t understand why that is and I wonder if there was a study on that

With an incoming warm air mass, the warm air is basically "overrunning" the cold air since warm air is less dense, meaning you have warming aloft but a lot of low level cold air still in place which can take longer to mix out. This time of year we can get some crazy inversions with warm air aloft and colder temps at the surface.

Not the correct thread, but some places will see 60 today!

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this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high

weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

BB7CBF69-B6DC-40FF-BB50-B884D63EC616.thumb.gif.042dce40b247c43f61b32fc977473c94.gif1B2A1720-1EDC-4FDF-80FD-F8B21E2BF5B4.thumb.gif.08926c3867b4d3109c700569f13cb683.gif

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3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

The temperature variances in the city during these warm ups astound me over the last 10 years?

 

 why can’t the city cool off at night during these warm periods? Why is the UHI stronger than it is during any other period? It makes no sense.

 

Central Park at 48F. Every suburb is 10-15 degrees cooler at 8 am!

Its similar in the summer heatwaves too, the most drastic differences between city and surrounding at night seem to be during the more extreme weather especially warmth.  

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high

weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

BB7CBF69-B6DC-40FF-BB50-B884D63EC616.thumb.gif.042dce40b247c43f61b32fc977473c94.gif1B2A1720-1EDC-4FDF-80FD-F8B21E2BF5B4.thumb.gif.08926c3867b4d3109c700569f13cb683.gif

We’ll see what happens when all the players are on the field. The only thing that concerns me is the placement of the banana high and suppression.

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4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

That’s different than winter being over.

 

You’re confusing the two.

 

And you’re doing it for a responses most likely.

 

There are three more months of winter. One way or another you will have more winter weather.

 

Are we going to get near a normal snowfall? No. Not likely.

 

Are we going to go above normal snowfall? No. Almost certainly not.

There is plenty of historical evidence to back up those two claims.

 

But saying winter is over on 12/30 is disingenuous.

 

 

It just takes one to make it a normal snowfall winter, '05-'06 and '15-'16 are prime examples of this although I believe that '05 had a decent December, '12-'13 had nothing December and January and ended up with almost 20".

With that rocket fuel water near our shoreline, there's always a shot at a major snowstorm with well timed cold. You could be in a crappy winter pattern and still have a near normal snowfall so needless to say that "The Winter is over" before the New Year need to stop and should be reserved for the banter thread tbh.

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