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Despite the warmth we've become used to, this upcoming stretch is really impressive.  First week of January with days and days of 50+ highs and some lows not even dropping below 40...that's insane.  It's not like this past week where we had a temp spike but then it crashed the next day.

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3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Despite the warmth we've become used to, this upcoming stretch is really impressive.  First week of January with days and days of 50+ highs and some lows not even dropping below 40...that's insane.  It's not like this past week where we had a temp spike but then it crashed the next day.

That's good. If it's not gonna snow then give me mild weather. The cold/dry was a waste

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18 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah this 100% feels different than the ratters of the past. 

97/98, 11/12, 19/20 never had a setup like we are in/just had. The aforementioned seasons looked hopeless from minute one. 

Maybe 01/02 since the models constantly teased us, however again it never had the setup we just had outside of modeling.

Half the forum already had a snowfall, one storm was northwest of us, the next one is going to end up Southeast of us and weak. We were stuck in the middle.

I posted it before, but if December 2000 did not phase on time, if December 2010 was just a smidge east we would be in the same boat as this year. Shows how luck/timing plays in. We were spoiled for years now where it seemed like every single good setup produced. 

Could this be 89/90 where we actually WERE in a good pattern that did not produce much then went on to rat? It could just as easily be 12/13 and we had a spectacular finish.

 

2010-11 is in an entirely different category because it was a la nina after an el nino I posted on this extensively in the December thread as being the ideal combo if you love extremes (going from extreme summer heat to extremely high snowfalls.)

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There were 15 La Niña Decembers in NYC with under 3” of snow since 1950. 11 of those seasons finished with under 20” of snow. But 3 of them managed to get close to normal seasonal snowfall around 23-25”. One of the seasons was 83-84 which also had single digit cold around Christmas like this year. December 2022 only has T of snow so far. It’s also the first La Niña December with such low snowfall  to have an AO reading below -4. 83-84,73-74, and 71-72 were the 3 Decembers on the list to get closer to normal seasonal snowfall. 2 of those Decembers had AO drops under -2. It will be interesting to see if we can get enough snow to rank closer to the 23-25” 3 years rather than the 11 under 20”.


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4

 


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5


 

Lowest December daily AO reading

2022….-4.238

2011…..-0.018

2007….-1.438

1999….-1.870

1998….-1.733

1988….-0.084

1985…..-3.783

1983…..-2.252

1975….-0.222

1974…..-1.659

1973…..-2.792

1971…..-1.398

1970….-2.530

1954….-1.748

 

.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There were 15 La Niña Decembers in NYC with under 3” of snow since 1950. 11 of those seasons finished with under 20” of snow. But 3 of them managed to get close to normal seasonal snowfall around 23-25”. One of the seasons was 83-84 which also had single digit cold around Christmas like this year. December 2022 only has T of snow so far. It’s also the first La Niña December with such low snowfall  to have an AO reading below -4. So 83-84,73-74, and 71-72 were the few Decembers on the list to drop lower on the daily AO index. It will be interesting to see if we can get enough snow to rank closer to the 23-25” 3 years rather than the 11 under 20”.


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4

 


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5


 

Lowest December daily AO reading

2022….-4.238

2011…..-0.018

2007….-1.438

1999….-1.870

1998….-1.733

1988….-0.084

1985…..-3.783

1983…..-2.252

1975….-0.222

1974…..-1.659

1973…..-2.792

1971…..-1.398

1970….-2.530

1954….-1.748

 

.

 

 

 

 

Chris, I talked about 83-84 in the December thread in relation to the other wonderfully extreme years that resulted from going from an el nino to a la nina (extremely hot summers-- actual heat not just high mins-- to very snowy winters.)  Although 83-84 wasn't extremely snowy it did have more frequent snows and of course the arctic cold was there.  What were the other two 20"+ snowfall cases besides that, were any of them multi year la ninas? I see years in there where the AO either wasn't low enough (not lower than -2) or they weren't snowy enough to qualify.  How many do we have where the December AO was both lower than -2 and they had 20"+ of seasonal snowfall?

 

 

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It should get considerably better after the 10th. 

We don't need a lot of cold in mid Jan to get snow either.

I hope you guys are correct but the models did not seem to show much improvement after the first week. It is a long way off as far as weather goes, so there is always hope.

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Near record Christmas to New Years warm up which could exceed 89-90 for lows around Christmas and highs around New Years.
 

725AB0F3-85EC-4B88-B043-AC7E286C9D0B.thumb.png.43aa2349c0a78360af3bb944f799e9bf.png

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25
Dec31 to Jan 1 highest Max Temperature 
1 1980-12-25 -1 28
2 1983-12-25 4 32
- 1872-12-25 4 38
4 1883-12-25 7 37
5 1989-12-25 9 53
- 1960-12-25 9 44
- 1896-12-25 9 46
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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully we won't see any snow

If that were to happen I'd also hope for it to be warm. Cold and dry sucks and why bother wasting the $$ on heating costs. As of 1/1 those costs will be going through the roof in CT when their electric rates will double for over 80% of the homes and businesses. 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

More can kicked changes on the ens. We will blow past the date of last winters first snowfall. Ratter winter coming 

I'd ignore the GEPS if that is what you're referencing as it has been extremely bad the last 4 weeks now beyond D8-10...the EPS/GEFS have not really budged at all now in 5 days...the main problem is some ensemble members either have the ridge out west too short or too far east...to a degree we see a bit of the 03-04/04-05 thing going on which worked for us and SNE but basically the rest of the country straight out torched in both of those winters where the ridge is basically centered over the Plains or just west of there...that pattern can work here, especially if the NAO is negative.

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Going to be extremely hard to pull that off. This isn’t a super nino. 98 was really close to doing it with 5” in late March that melted in an hour. 

I personally feel the 72-73 record is never going to get broken because the issue now with the overall higher precipitable water/warm SSTs is you are just too likely to get juicier systems or storminess...trying to pull off an 81-82 or 01-02 where you are insanely cold and dry or warm and dry is not easy.  You'll get something somewhere but certainly winters with 3-4-5-6 inches are possible

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I personally feel the 72-73 record is never going to get broken because the issue now with the overall higher precipitable water/warm SSTs is you are just too likely to get juicier systems or storminess...trying to pull off an 81-82 or 01-02 where you are insanely cold and dry or warm and dry is not easy.  You'll get something somewhere but certainly winters with 3-4-5-6 inches are possible

If the Pacific puke pattern locks in a la 89/90 then we have a good chance. 

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