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January 2023


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32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We might break 70 Wednesday if the euro is correct 

The Euro, GFS, and CMC, all have 850 mb temperatures in the +10C to +12C range. Those were the 850 mb temperatures when we made it to the low 70s in early January 2007. But that year had nearly full sun. So the models currently have mid 60s with plenty of clouds. More sun than forecast would allow us to make a run on 70°.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The Euro, GFS, and CMC, all have 850 mb temperatures in the +10 C to +12C range. Those were the 850 mb temperatures when we made it to the low 70s in early January 2007. But that year had nearly full sun. So the models currently have mid 60s with plenty of clouds. So more sun than forecast would allow us to make a run on 70°.

How about January 2019? More Sun? 

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

How about January 2019? More Sun? 

I think we had sunny conditions for our last January 70° back in 2020. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1950 74 0
2 2007 72 0
3 2020 70 0
- 2002 70 0
- 1998 70 0
- 1932 70 0
4 1974 69 0
5 2000 68 0
- 1967 68 0
6 2017 67 0
- 2005 67 0
- 1995 67 0
7 2013 66 0
- 2008 66 0
- 1993 66 0
- 1990 66 0
- 1975 66 0
- 1937 66 0
8 2016 65 0
- 1973 65 0
- 1972 65

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think we had sunny conditions for our last January 70° back in 2020. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1950 74 0
2 2007 72 0
3 2020 70 0
- 2002 70 0
- 1998 70 0
- 1932 70 0
4 1974 69 0
5 2000 68 0
- 1967 68 0
6 2017 67 0
- 2005 67 0
- 1995 67 0
7 2013 66 0
- 2008 66 0
- 1993 66 0
- 1990 66 0
- 1975 66 0
- 1937 66 0
8 2016 65 0
- 1973 65 0
- 1972 65

 

Ugh, my mistake it was 2020. What a awful winter that was for the entire area 

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ugh, my mistake it was 2020. What a awful winter that was for the entire area 

That’s what I thought that you meant. We had 850s in the +10C to +12C range also on 1-11-20 when Newark hit 70°. The breaks of sun allowed us to beat guidance from a few days before.


 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
116 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

 

Models are showing by
the end of Saturday, 850mb temperatures near 10 to 12 degrees 
C.

 

Prior to then, a deep-layered SW flow will result in an anomalously
warm airmass with potential record warmth. Highs away from the 
immediate coast will likely reach 60-65 Saturday, perhaps even 
warmer with more sun being realized

 

There is the potential for a few spots across interior NE NJ to
hit 70. Coastal locations will struggle due to the strong 
onshore flow, but even there records could be attained. Highs 
will top out in the 60s for most locations except the immediate 
coast, where it will be in the mid to upper 50s.
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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps failed with the colder pattern in December  behind the gefs .

What makes you think it's right when the MJO progression is going to become favorable?

The mjo is dragging its feet in p7. Even if we get into 8-1 their is no promise it’s strong enough to change the pac 

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58 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Do not want to be a Kill Joy---but this is actually the highest % for a sub-32 reading in the next 15.        The first 15 days of January looks like a Tax Write Off to me:

1673092800-8MmscIIG6Tg.png

Awesome. If it won’t snow I’m fine with more days like today. Garbage wasted cold is the worst. 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome. If it won’t snow I’m fine with more days like today. Garbage wasted cold is the worst. 

The only thing that could bail this winter out would be Feb 2006 type storm. other than that, I'm thinking selling the big snow blower was the right move. Don't need a big one anymore anyway; don't have to get out for work.

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

The only thing that could bail this winter out would be Feb 2006 type storm. other than that, I'm thinking selling the big snow blower was the right move. Don't need a big one anymore anyway; don't have to get out for work.

For the latter issue, I drive a WRX. With a 60 mile commute up the parkway, having a car like this is a dream (not to mention fun, especially in snow). Unfortunately since getting it the only real storm I had to drive in was Feb 1 2021. Years prior I would borrow my father's F150 for larger storms, and in having my current job since 2009, I have some crazy memories of driving the parkway in horrific conditions.

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Meanwhile Iceland has had one of their coldest months in a very long time, with temps as cold as -20C in the warmer southwestern region near Reykjavik and Thingvellir (one of the main tourism areas inland from the capital).

I was there in November and it was nothing like this, now (I saw about -10C up in the northern part of the country, which is more typical). Capital area was -1 to about 6C while I was there. What a difference.

 

 

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Quick recheck: NY eve morning. Based on ensembles and ops through 06z/31.

We are still in the game for a small snowfall, especially nw-ne suburbs. GFS and its GEFS suite flop back and forth cycle to cycle. Therefore on the fence...yes/no.  Still want to see 3 consecutive runs of +snwdepth change, + I'd like the GGEM and EC to add some snow in this Jan 6 period.  I think they will but am not certain.  All depends on the shape of the weakening 500MB trough crossing the mid Atlantic states 06z/7 (see attached).  If it's closed, we're in. Right now, there is a nice confluent zone to our north (see there 500mb attachment) and indications from the 50+ member NAEFS that it will be colder-quicker than previously thought (see attached 00z/6 BL temp) in degrees Celsius). The NAEFS trends seem to be becoming more favorable for a little snow.

I'll check back NY Day... in the meantime. Attached the GEFS 06z 24 hour chance of 1+" of snow Jan 6.  The NAEFS 500 MB pattern leading up to the event... and the NAEFS 00z/6 BL temp. Snow, if it's to occur, may begin Thursday evening the 5th??? 

Long Term Day 8-14 via NAEFS. No further cooling implied after what arrives Jan 6-7, but even with above normal temps, as many have said, snow is possible during the climo increasingly colder time of the year.  Timing may be important. 

Screen Shot 2022-12-31 at 6.49.56 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-12-31 at 6.52.54 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-12-31 at 6.53.40 AM.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Top 10 warmest temperatures for the first half of January as all the cold in the Northern Hemisphere shifts over to Asia and the mild Pacific flow dominates. Looks like the first 5 days will probably be the warmest. Followed by still above average temperatures but not quite as extreme.
 

2C0E8BB2-A633-4147-A5A5-70DFB21C8EAB.thumb.png.cff2c9667d5280ea5bbdce78723c1a40.png
57F006E6-D3BD-4CC5-A4EE-A2F304AC283B.thumb.png.c848cb8f49e7ce8b19d8c041731100d3.png

A33918C5-B7EE-49BF-9725-C03D656F6DC1.thumb.png.56a57ee63b185cd56ab47c6c15a3e7a6.png

 


 

 

IF you can, would you post the mean EPS LOW temp for these 3 five day periods you showed the departure from normal. This matches the NAEFS.  Timing is everything on these events Jan 6 and beyond but with respect to climo, I think it will be cold enough as extracted from the NAEFS BL temp as accessed here from the 00z/31 NAEFS.  Take a look at the dailies valid at 00z of the day in question.

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

 

Select temperature from the upper left chart menu and then to the far right right on the menu, add a day at a time.  Imperfect for sure and there are standfard deviations applied in color. This is cold enough for me I-84.  I kind of wonder if eventually this is all going to shift south toward PHI-BWI suburbs??

 

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21 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

This is the first Near Normal 7-Day Period on the EURO Weeklies:         They never go BN  with any vigor anyway.

1674777600-cjCf0VZo04A.png

Now go back to nov 30th. What did the weeklies show for Christmas.  I am sorry but no disrespect. We can all see what the models show but ppl learn from the past.  They never going to be right 10 plus days in advance. When a model hints at something it usually is more extreme (either warmth or cold) than what’s it’s showing.   Happy new years 

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Some big picture thoughts;

So, it's been roughly 5 days since I posted anything. Just watching the runs since then trying to gain ideas on what is being shown with the progression. There are some key things to be aware of in my estimation. 

First, I'm not really sure that the MJO is even a large factor in what is happening this time. I think it has a lot more to do with the Pacific jet being extended. Which could be driving that signal instead. However, that is also one favorable condition for mjo propagation, so its a bit unclear. Regardless, as it retracts, it's driving the wave breakers in the Pacific. There could be some positive feedback to this process from the PV dipping west of the Aleutians. I could see that as a possibility. This seems to be doing a couple of things in addition to whatever occurs over the CONUS. It should still offer up some +PNA, but there's more at work here which I will show. This is just the gfs jet for example, don't take literally. 

1379960153_index(5).thumb.png.dcfc274746e44cbe0311d51489aedd45.png

Secondly, there was a very informative tweet thread by Jason Furtado earlier this week. Pertaining to the stratosphere and these Pacific wave breaks.

I do believe we're actually seeing both of these things he described occurring on guidance since then, in a way. The following loop is the 06z gefs for example. I think the wave reflection is playing a role with the consistently higher heights being shown in Canada, firstly. While the Pacific slowly retrogrades underneath that as was previously brought up. 

DisguisedLikableGlassfrog-size_restricte

In addition, he mentioned that the waves could break in the stratosphere instead as a second option. Causing warming there. Which is what I was referencing in my last post about that subject. Which was simply an effort in pointing out the chance of doing so.

Since then, guidance has been actually trending towards a couple warming waves now up there. 1st one is weak and starts this week, but its followed up by more, which are increasing in strength in succession. So this will warrant continued monitoring moving forward. 

2051134322_index(6).thumb.png.d12adee3df8e41abf45a4c32f5b4b0be.png

Now, clearly, nothing specifically can be inferred from any of this at this time. This is more an effort to point out some important factors worthy of consideration. I will just be continuing to monitor trends for the time being. I suspect predictability confidence will remain rather low with everything going on moving forward. It is a lot on the plate for modeling. Especially if/when the stratosphere does start seeing some sort of action on top of it.

We're just all along for the ride at this point. However there is very interesting scenery remaining, if one digs deeper. Hopefully it can come together favorably. Whatever transpires will have ramifications on later January and how February will go, I suspect. Just felt like offering up some food for thought for the new year. In addition to some reasoning on why I just cannot turn my back on this winter. At least not yet. 

Cheers. :beer:

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only thing that can say about snowfall forecasts since early December is that the models showing the lowest snowfall have turned out to be correct. 

Just go with little to no snowfall and warm temps and you'll be right 90% of the time. 

That doesn't mean we can't get a sneaky system that brings snow. Even the warmest, least snowy winters have had that. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s too early to talk about the whole winter. But based on model forecasts for the first half of January, we should have below normal snowfall for this period. These patterns when all the cold shifts over to Asia can take time to change. Especially when the Pacific Jet is so strong. 

Several mets are convinced things change starting mid Jan but color me skeptical. 

Ensembles would need to give us better signs within a week 

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