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January 2023


wdrag
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Several mets are convinced things change starting mid Jan but color me skeptical. 

Ensembles would need to give us better signs within a week 

There is no way to know what the weather is going to be beyond the effective 10 to sometimes 15 day model limit. All we know is that the models have been pushing back the good pattern further out into time since late November. Just look at the model discussions at the beginning of the December thread. We can remember some of the longer range runs showing a possible snowstorm that turned out to be a record cutter right before Christmas. While the models missed the magnitude of cold behind the cutter, it only lasted 3 days. Then the current warm up beat expectations. At least the models were in good agreement longer range on the extreme block north of Alaska which drove that cold.
 

Fast Pacific flow patterns can be tricky for snow even if we can sneak in a few closer to average days in an otherwise mild pattern. We usually have the issue of primary lows running to the Great Lakes. Then the secondary low can get suppressed to our south. Plus models may keep showing snow chances day 6-10 that can’t make it to under 5 days. 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is no way to know what the weather is going to be beyond the effective 10 to sometimes 15 day model limit. All we know is that the models have been pushing back the good pattern further out into time since late November. Just look at the model discussions at the beginning of the December thread. We can remember some of the longer range runs showing a possible snowstorm that turned out to be a record cutter right before Christmas. While the models missed the magnitude of cold behind the cutter, it only lasted 3 days. Then the current warm up beat expectations. At least the models were in good agreement longer range on the extreme block north of Alaska which drove that cold. 

The big change to the Great Lakes cutter occurred with the 12z/16 EC-EPS cycle shifting from coastal storm to a cutter.  (That was 7 days prior to the late 12/22-12/23 event).  I'll accept anything inside 7 days with consistency as being a reasonable outlook. 

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3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The big change to the Great Lakes cutter occurred with the 12z/16 EC-EPS cycle shifting from coastal storm to a cutter.  (That was 7 days prior to the late 12/22-12/23 event).  I'll accept anything inside 7 days with consistency as being a reasonable outlook. 

I will give the ECMWF credit for showing the 3 possible clusters on that snowier run. The one that won out was the cutter track. The next one was really tucked in and had P-type issues at the coast. Only one cluster had the benchmark track which would have made the whole forum happy. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

I will give the ECMWF credit for showing the 3 possible clusters on that snowier run. The one that won out was the cutter track. The next one was really tucked in and had P-type issues at the cost. Only one cluster had the benchmark track which would have made the whole forum happy. 

On that...  at least two of 3 clusters, we had the wintry option for the subforum.  12z/16 cycle of the EC was a drastic change including its ensemble. 

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8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

On that...  at least two of 3 clusters, we had the wintry option for the subforum.  12z/16 cycle of the EC was a drastic change including its ensemble. 

It quickly corrected warmer in the following runs. But the EPS mean rule worked out. Tucked in lows from 8 days out usually correct westward and too warm in time. It’s the lows that are suppressed day 8-10 when we have a great blocking pattern and favorable Pacific that can become our KU events.

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Continuing: Modeling has us in the game from late Jan 5 onward.  Could still be the very bleak fail outcome for Jan 6.

Latest 12z/31 WPC Blend of Model flip flops with the GFS cycle. It's attached. This does not include the 12z/31 cycle which I think is going to show an increased chance of snow Jan 6-10 since since both 12z/31 GFS and GGEM op's more or less agree on something.  There 18z WPC BOM should reflect something similar to its 12z/31 cycle.

Still for the first Jan 6 event to occur, I think it's going to take a closed 500MB Low into Ohio early Jan 6 for this thread the needle to work.  We'll need to see the 12z/31 EC op and then see if the GFS can hold on in its 18z/31 and 00z/1 cycles to give us improved odds.

Screen Shot 2022-12-31 at 12.09.39 PM.png

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Continuing: Modeling has us in the game from late Jan 5 onward.  Could still be the very bleak fail outcome for Jan 6.

Latest 12z/31 WPC Blend of Model flip flops with the GFS cycle. It's attached. This does not include the 12z/31 cycle which I think is going to show an increased chance of snow Jan 6-10 since since both 12z/31 GFS and GGEM op's more or less agree on something.  There 18z WPC BOM should reflect something similar to its 12z/31 cycle.

Still for the first Jan 6 event to occur, I think it's going to take a closed 500MB Low into Ohio early Jan 6 for this thread the needle to work.  We'll need to see the 12z/31 EC op and then see if the GFS can hold on in its 18z/31 and 00z/1 cycles to give us improved odds.

Screen Shot 2022-12-31 at 12.09.39 PM.png

Euro is slowly coming on board also

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Several mets are convinced things change starting mid Jan but color me skeptical. 

Ensembles would need to give us better signs within a week 

honestly, even in the warmest winter, law of averages. Doesn’t take a genius or a model to know that if the first two weeks of January are 10 to 15° above normal, at some point in the third or fourth week it’s gonna get colder. Safe bet

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Something like that happened during the April fools 97 storm

I don’t remember that storm but it would’ve been infuriating for NYC/LI. The area was essentially stuck in a dry slot while it dumped over SNE and the W suburbs into the Poconos. It wasn’t just urban heating. I’d rather have a torching cutter than that again. 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And also for the 9th

Yes on all...  and definitely an opportunity for NYC snow Jan 6 and 8-9.  Right now the 48 hour exceedingly low prob for 6" keeps it I84 corridor for the first one. This could be an eastward moving low that I could see favor most of the wintry weather I-84 itself SOUTH to most of if all of NJ e PA and at least northern LI.  Long ways away with many options.  I just want to see the upper 500MB low maintain into W PA and same latitude.   So far, encouraging,   Need to see future modeling continue accumulating here.

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave saying don’t buy into any snow possibility until things change….he is usually spot on and the last to hype a snow event. Go with what he is saying 

You can do so

The pattern is resembling more of El Nino as the pattern goes on.

The pattern is modeled to get better with the mjo going into 8.

 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I don’t remember that storm but it would’ve been infuriating for NYC/LI. The area was essentially stuck in a dry slot while it dumped over SNE and the W suburbs into the Poconos. It wasn’t just urban heating. I’d rather have a torching cutter than that again. 

The 3/31-4/1 97 storm

Screenshot_20221231_152756_Chrome.jpg

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

There is no way to know what the weather is going to be beyond the effective 10 to sometimes 15 day model limit. All we know is that the models have been pushing back the good pattern further out into time since late November. Just look at the model discussions at the beginning of the December thread. We can remember some of the longer range runs showing a possible snowstorm that turned out to be a record cutter right before Christmas. While the models missed the magnitude of cold behind the cutter, it only lasted 3 days. Then the current warm up beat expectations. At least the models were in good agreement longer range on the extreme block north of Alaska which drove that cold.
 

Fast Pacific flow patterns can be tricky for snow even if we can sneak in a few closer to average days in an otherwise mild pattern. We usually have the issue of primary lows running to the Great Lakes. Then the secondary low can get suppressed to our south. Plus models may keep showing snow chances day 6-10 that can’t make it to under 5 days. 

This 

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