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CIK62

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About CIK62

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KJFK
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    ConeyIsland
  • Interests
    Amateur meteorology, guitar, handball, swimming,chess,Russian,Spanish.

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  1. Remainder of Feb. averaging 41degs., or 5degs AN. Month to date is +2.1[36.7]. Feb. should end at about +2.6[37.8]. All 8 days averaging 40degs., or 4degs. AN. March 3 storm already degenerated into the same old setups we've been seeing all winter.
  2. CIK62

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    Don't know if mention was made of the fact that one year ago today we experienced the hottest Feb. day ever 78*, highest 500mb heights too I think, in the hottest month of Feb ever, but still managed about 5" of total snow for the month. Speaking of bulbs, I hope the one in JB's head is lit now. Maybe March can pull a 1960 type miracle and be the coldest month of the season. Hard to do with a normal Jan. The other two could be months could be beaten if the atmosphere does not obey the analogs completely and misbehaves on the cold side.
  3. CIK62

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    Keeping track of winter to date and what we need to get to Normal by winter's end. Hopefully the last column goes positive quickly. However, projecting to day 40, we could be at +4.6, -3.7---worst case. Day # Degs. +/- Winter td . ToNormal 32. +097 +3.0 -1.7 33. +102 +3.1 -1.8 34. +108 +3.2 -1.9 35. +116 +3.3 -2.1 36. +127 +3.5 -2.4 37. +134 +3.6 -2.5 CFS is 16AN 14BN on the next 30 days. 38. +131 +3.4 -2.5 CFS is 20AN 10BN on the next 30 days. 39. +138 +3.5 -2.7 40. +146 +3.7 -2.9 41. +145 +3.5 -3.0 CFS is 20BN 10AN on the next 30 days. Nice improvement. 42 +139 +3.3 -2.9 Estimating a +2.8 for the first half of the winter ie. by Day 46. 43. +135 +3.1 -2 8 44. +132 +3.0 -2.9 45. +127 +2.8 -2.8 46. +126 +2.7 -2.9 47. +129 +2.7 -3.0 48. +126 +2.6 -3.0 49. +128 +2.6 -3.1 50. +131 +2.6 -3.3 CFS is 20BN 10AN on the next 30 days. Snow to date is 7.1", probably should be 11.5" by Jan. 19th. 51. +127 +2.5 -3.3 52. +104 +2.0. -2.7 53. +094 +1.8 -2.5 54. +104 +1.9 -2.9 55. +119 +2.2 -3.4 56. +121 +2.2 -3.6 57. +118 +2.1 -3.6 58. +126 +2.2 -3.9 59. +125 +2.1 -4.0 60. +126 +2.1 -4.2 61. +114 +1.9 -3.9 Feb. has its work cut out for it (a little easier after today is assimilated here) to get us to Normal T/Snow. We are at 7.5" snow as Jan. ends----already 7.5" BN and now add 9" for Feb. itself and we need to see 16"/17" during Feb. 62. +090 +1.5 -3.2 63. +073 +1.2 -2.7 64. +065 +1.0 -2.5 65. +075 +1.2. -3.0 66. +092. +1.4. -3.8 67. +109 +1.6 -4.7 68. +116 +1.7 -5.3 69. +128 +1.9 -6.1 70. +138 +2.0 -6.9 Next 3 weeks need to be about 7degs. BN to get us to Normal for DJF. 71. +132 +1.9 -6.9 72. +127 +1.8 -7.0 73. +127 +1.7 -7.5 74. +123 +1.7 -7.7 With 1.2" snow, still need 15"/16" in next 16 days. 75. +125 +1.7 -8.3 76. +130 +1.7 -9.3 77. +146 +1.9 -11.2 78. +151 +1.9 -12.6 79. +147 +1.9 -13.4 80. +145 +1.8 -14.5 81. +139 +1.7 -15.4 82. +133 +1.6 -16.6 83. +140 +1.7 -20.0
  4. Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[36.4]. Feb. should end at +3.1[38.0]. The whole meteorological winter should end near +2.0. JB had -1 for us. 1SD is 2.4degs.
  5. Are we still (NYC) in the running for fewest days in a season with at least 1" of snow or more, on the ground? Maybe two days in Nov. and one this month. 1972-73 probably wins here, not sure though. Comments. Thank You MV.
  6. Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.3[36.8]. Should be +3.1[38.0] by the 28th. As I predicted, the buffoon Euro went from 16" to 2" in one run for the 27th. GEFS still has its hands in its pocket, playing with something.
  7. Euro is 16"{975mb BM storm} for the 27th. Previous run was 3". Hey, that 16" is exactly what we need to make DJF look normal at 24/25". The GEFS knows nothing about it. I was reporting these two buffoon outputs daily---till the start of Feb. GEFS has actually cut its16-day snows in half, in the last four runs. It really should have been looking like it does now, the whole winter!
  8. Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.8[37.2]. Should be +3.2[38.1] by the 27th.
  9. CIK62

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    Fond memories here of freezing almost everyday till Feb. 10. There was prep time too, as Oct./Nov. were also BN. There is an episode of Kojak which contained a scene at the Battery Park promenade with the Statue of Liberty in the background, filmed at this time. Kojak and his 'contact' are obviously freezing and it looks like blocks of ice all the way out to the Statue.
  10. Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.1[37.4]. Should be +3.7[38.2] by the 26th.
  11. Next 8 days averaging 38degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +3.6[37.7]. Should be +3.4[37.8] by the 25th.
  12. Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 1deg. AN.
  13. Next 8 days averaging 38degs ., or about 3degs. AN. EURO Weeklies have SE RIDGE winning it all, though we are on the borderline for say 2/26-3/10. Look for a surprise there only. Bet on SE RIDGE to Win Place and Show. What a horse! Sat. event way south on every model.
  14. What a laugh! JB and Joe D'leo now using a completely different set of analogs in an effort to explain why their Pioneer (analog model) failed. The new analog is 1959, I think. Just be prepared to sweep wet snow off of your Memorial Day Weekend picnic table, before setting it.
  15. It is not the winter that is going down the drain, it is the models and the entire meteorological science taking the hit. Somehow it must be explained why the analogs did not work out, and seemed to be running independent of the OPs, or the other way around if you like. I think we are now prone, and vulnerable to a major non-predicted weather phenomenon---that goes beyond this winter. Just look at the GEFS 16-day Snow Accumulation. Never showed even a low probability of the average 3"-4.5" typical 16-day total ever happening Everyone of 75 different daily runs should have shown this. It ran up as high as 17" with a 60% chance on a few occasions, and still nothing happened or even threaten to happen. The last run I recorded, indicated a 50/50 chance of 6" for the first 16 days of Feb. What did it for me, was the fact that the models could not even muster up a fantasy snowstorm, which told me we were never close to the real thing.
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