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About CIK62

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    Amateur meteorology, guitar, handball, swimming,chess,Russian,Spanish.

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  1. The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.(36/52), or +2.0. Month to date is 34.4[-4.4]. Should be 38.9[about -2.0] by the 16th. All the Snow is gone again. So is most other precipitation too. I told you the GFS was just adding to its Epitaph of Errors. RIP v16. Here Lies the GFS............. To Predict the Weather it Did Its Best. 28*(45%RH) here at 6am. 27* at 7am.
  2. GFS is making a small portion of almost 2" of rain, into some snow that is self-cleaned away by the storm itself. Two days ago it was 15" on the 19th. Now the 19th. has a high of 64*. For another laugh see below. But at any rate: An even better run here, but remember this is just 2 runs out of the last 5 with snow. Give me two more snowy runs to become a believer.
  3. The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(37/54), or about +4.0. Some snow (on the 15th. this time) is showing up. About a 5-day warmup precedes it. The usual 'roll the dice' (GFS)to get the LR T's., goes from a high of 29* to 64* in two runs---for the 19th. 29*(50%RH) here at 6am. 31* by 10am. 38* by 2pm. 43* by 4pm.
  4. The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.(36/52), or +2.0. 32degs.(52%RH) here at 6am. 34* by Noon. All that snow/cold for the 18th. is gone and T's are 20 degrees higher then, than two runs ago. GFS going out in its vogue and milieu.
  5. Now see this>>>>> 18Z GFS On the 18th. 15" of Snow, 32* highs????? Boy, the new GFS has its work cut out for it on its very first day of operation.........24 hours earlier.
  6. The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., (35/50), or about +2.0. No precipitation till mid-month when some of it may be snow. The 18th. could be as cold as today, after the jump up to visit the 70's on the 12th,13th. 23*(45%RH) here at 6am. (was 28* at midnite) 32* by Noon. 38* by4pm. 35* by 9pm.
  7. The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(33/47), or -1.0. The GFS still has renegade cold on the 13th, (now on the 15th) and then some snow on the 15th. CMC has 60* for the 13th. V16 operational after the snow? lol. 41*(62%RH) here at 6am. (was 46* at midnite) 40* at 7am. 43* by 3pm.
  8. Still looking the same. Kicks up AN by the 9th. And No Snow. T here up from 32* at 6am to 52* at 3pm. 53* at 4:30pm.
  9. Looking little changed after the 8th. However, the solid area of BN air that seemed headed here after the 18th for many runs now, looks like it went through the mix master(not shown) and became unidentifiable, middle of the road junk that won't cut it near springtime. Long wait for nothing. Same lack of precipitation except for the 11th, 15th. as before(not shown).
  10. The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(29/43), or -4.0. No Snow. In fact no precipitation for 10 days. Same warmup still showing up starting March 09. Rain on the 11th and 15th should do it for the next 15 days. T uncertainty about the 13th. 22*(40%RH) here at 6am. ( Was 33* at midnight.) 28* by Noon. 35* by 4pm.
  11. 60's up the Wazzoo incoming:
  12. February limped into the finish line to end at 34.2[-1.1]. The last 7 days of the month were +5.0. The first 8 days of March are averaging 36degs.(29/42), or -4.0. No Snow. Then, as before, the GFS goes nuts and the next 9 days after that are averaging 55degs.(47/64), or +12.0. A leap of 5 or 6 weeks into the future. Then an Arctic push about the 18th??? What would it mean at that point? Never mind since LR outputs say it never gets across the country anyway. 43*(98%RH) here at 6am. Rain. Was 47* at 2am. and 42* at 5am. 45* by Noon. 47* at 1pm. 36* by 11pm. Remember when I showed a 975mb low and snow/rain for time frame near March 1. The cold is in with the wind, but storm is way north. However we do have a Gale Warning out of the setup: Issued To: Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued March 01 at 4:27AM EST until March 02 at 6:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas of 4 to 5 feet. * WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. INSTRUCTIONS: Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)
  13. The last day of February is averaging 38degs. Month to date is 33.8[-1.3]. February will end at 34.0[-1.3]. Another Switch-eroo for the GFS. The first 10 days of March are averaging 35degs. (28/42), or -5.0---but no snow showing. The first 8 days of March two years ago were -10.0 with 10" of snow. 44*(78%RH) here at 6am. Was 43* at 3am. 46* by 9am. 50* by Noon. 46* again at 1pm. after precipitation started.
  14. There is some inkling of TeleConnection support around this time too. Crossing of the Neutral Zone by the NAO,PNA? Otherwise the TC's look hopeless through March 15. 18Z is averaging 50degs.(41/60) for Week 2. Meanwhile the GFS is learning to climb mountains:
  15. The last 2 days of February are averaging 40degs.(36/44), or +2.0. Month to date is 33.4[-1.6]. February will end at 33.9[-1.4]. Hear all your favorite hits from the 50's and early 60's starting March 08 on WGFS! If you are a sentient centarian who remembers the hits of the 20's and 30's, the station plans a possible format change about March 17. 42%(83%RH), Rain. Was 40* at midnight. 43* at 7am. 44* at 8am. 45* at 9am. 46* at 11am, FOG<0.2mi. 48* at Noon. 50* at 1pm. FOG continues. 51* at 2pm, Fog lifted. M. Sunny PM, 53* by 4pm. 49* by 6pm. 44* by 9pm.