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    Amateur meteorology, guitar, handball, swimming,chess,Russian,Spanish.

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  1. Assuming August ends up exactly normal, I estimate the average temperature (for the first 8 months of the year) to be +1.46degs., or a surplus of 354degs/243days. Since the warmest year ever is about +2.5degs or a surplus of 2.5*365 = 913degs. we need (913-354)degs/122days or for the rest of the year to be (Sept.>>>>Dec.) at least +4.6degs. to set a new annual record. It will take some wild positive deviations to become the warmest year ever, but we have a good start.
  2. Well right now, to date we have a deficit of 13 degs. for the month (-0.7*19). 8 days at +3degs/day is a +24degs.. So basically normal by the 28th. +(11/27)
  3. GDPS still has this stubborn TS near us this time next week. This is the same system that the GFS had last Sun-Tues period, for two weeks hence. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017082000&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt= GFS at this time: Thttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017082006&fh=180&r=conus&dpd
  4. Next 8 days still are +3degs. (Avg. 73). We should be a little above normal by the 28th.
  5. That GDPS storm still hanging in for another run. Causes easterly gales for 2 days for many north of Cape Hatteras.
  6. I do not know which swirl gives rise to this storm that the GDPS keeps showing. This time the beast gives up the ghost right over us. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017081900&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt= As usual the CMC has a bunch of spinning tops, (PresLevel @144hrs) probably not possible, which look more like a computer game. Courtesy of WeatherBell: http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/gem_global.php
  7. Next 8 days down to +3degs. (Avg. 73). By morning of 27th we should be just slightly positive for the month. However, we may be more concerned about wind, tides and rain, since CMC still has tropical storm conditions here for an entire day, at that time, albeit from a moribund storm.
  8. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017081812&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=
  9. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017081800&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=
  10. GFS dispenses with three separate suspicious areas while the CMC at its usual self, keeps all three, and crushes NYC with one of them, near the 27th. Happy tracking to all.
  11. Three suspicious areas in the tropics are knocking each other out! A week from now all three are gone by TKO.
  12. Next 8 days holding at +5degs. (Avg. 74). Will be near +1deg. by the 25th., when below normal temps. may start again.
  13. Seems like Harvey will not get much passed 60W once it forms, after showing some potential as a threat here, on early runs.
  14. Next 8 days jump to +5degs., basically on strength of low temps that are too high. We will be +0.5deg. by morning of the 24th. if this is correct.
  15. Don't worry. CANSIPS has every month for the next 12 months above normal, except somehow it knows Feb. will be below normal! It takes all kinds. The CANSIPS prediction would give us about 36 AN months out of a total of 39 months, by next summer.