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About CIK62

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    Amateur meteorology, guitar, handball, swimming,chess,Russian,Spanish.

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  1. Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 2degs. BN.
  2. Three chances for snow just before [19-24] Christmas, but rain is more likely except for the last one on the 24th. Meanwhile entire nation is AN briefly on the 18th. This comes after light snow or snow showers the 12th & 15th
  3. Next 8 days continues to average 34degs., or about 4degs. BN.
  4. Last 10 days of the month look questionable now for BN status, before BN regime resumes in first part of Jan. In addition, CFS continues moderating the first 6 months of 2018 from the "forget the red hues" continent wide freeze, to a more believable mottled look. Maybe it had malfuntioned for a while w/o anyone telling us so. Multi snow threats abound, but none look like storms right now for us, just variable degree snow events. Clearly, Week 1 is colder than Week 2 and we are struggling with the current event today.
  5. Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or about 4degs. BN. Used 36/30 for today.
  6. Fragile setup indeed. Do not let the butterfly flap its wing anywhere around here, difference could be 0" or up to 8" Cobb Method likes 4-6 inches and keeps temps. at 32. NAM colder than GFS, but has less LEQ to work with. Plume Chart has just 3 inches, and never has temp. go to 32, till event ends. Both of these are for LGA.
  7. Next 8 days down to a 34deg. average, or about 4degs. BN.
  8. The NWS does not even have NYC or LI in the zone of a 90% chance of beating 0"!!! Points S and W have a 10% chance of beating 4". Mostly likely amount is a Trace, where there is any chance.
  9. EURO WEEKLIES [12/04] do not look good for first halve of Jan. For a third run, NYD looks 20 to 30 degs. AN. I would not be sending out Greeting Cards featuring the Teleconnections to my friends either. True, we have seen worse and snow is still possible and the EURO isn't G-D. I notice too, that the CFS keeps warming all the coming months from the idiotic 10BN continent wide cold it had for the first 6 months of the year. I make it 21 days BN (the next 14 days are most of these) and 22 days AN (3 days are gone already so total days is 43/46)
  10. Next 8 days down to an average of 37 degs., or finally BN again by 1 or 2 degrees. Congrats! Now where is my SNOW?
  11. There is no GFS phasing for the 9th-----the 13th. now looks like the 9th. did previously-----a midmonth try and the first potential plowmaster GOM beast does not kickoff till the 19th. Enjoy the BN temps. while we wait.
  12. Next 8 days down to 39degs. average, or just Normal or just AN.
  13. But doesn't the Control and Ensemble Mean rarely match up after Day 15? This must mean something.
  14. EURO WEEKLIES are warm to Hot around the start of winter and again for NYD as I pointed out before. Heights are practically off the scale then at +400M. C.I. Polar Bear Club members will not be rolling in the snow as they were on Jan. 01, 2001. Meanwhile the CFS remains on its cold kick. It does battle with the incoming ridge from the west and wins, keeping it a bay to the west and south of us. I would say the next critical period is the last 10 days of the month, and earlier---whether we get a snow cover around here or not, when all the output says cold. [12/09-21]
  15. Next 8 days still averaging 41degs., or 2 to 3degs. AN. Leaving out the first 3 days gives an average of 37degs., which about 2degs. BN.