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About CIK62

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    Amateur meteorology, guitar, handball, swimming,chess,Russian,Spanish.

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  1. EURO Control for the Weeklies still has the Hudson Bay region at +10F to +25F for an entire month starting the Dec. 08, so no Arctic Air invasion is going to happen here. Average T for the next 6 weeks is +5F, just like last Jan, Feb, Mar. JB still says get it done around here by December 15th or the 20th. Winter ends December 21st.! I once again will soothe myself with the thoughts of The Ten Day Winter, ala Feb. 05-15 1983. Even that failed last winter.
  2. The last 7 days of November are averaging 51degs.[46/55]. Making it 46degs., or +3.0. Month to date is 53.2[+4.3]. November should end at 51.5[+4.0]. Using the uncorrected 51, November would end at 52.7. Our chances for any Action/Jackson look dim. The only item I see is that Tampa's 32 straight month run w/o a BN one---will be in jeopardy at the start of December. Under the hood BN air and we may miss a lot of it. 42*(61%RH) here at 6am. 48* by 2pm. 49* at 3pm.
  3. The last 8 days of November are averaging 50degs.[45/55]. Making it 45degs, or +2.0. Month to date is 53.3[+4.2]. November should end at 51.1[+3.6]. 59*(99%RH) here at 6am, Rain, Fog. 57*(90%RH) by 8am. 52*(55%RH) by 11am. 49* by 1pm. 44* by 8pm. GFS has 4" of SNOW on Dec.4/5! CMC has 4" of Rain on 11/30---12/01.
  4. The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.[47/57]. Making it 47degs., or +4.0. Month to date is 53.3[4.1]. Should be 51.6[+4.1] by the 30th. W/O the correction I always apply, this would be the warmest November ever. We could gain 40 degrees worth of surplus and thus another 40/30 = +1.3. It actually indicates 6 more 60-Degree Days are possible by months end. First week of December seems to have too many vortices around the EC at the same time. 47*(57%RH) here at 6am. 46* at 7am. 50* at 9am. 54* by Noon. 55* by 4pm, but most of the PM was at 52*. 56* at 6pm. 57* at 10pm. 58* at 11pm.
  5. Courtesy of WeatherBell. Very Ugly Look for a 46 Day interval. Records are gonna fall if this holds up. Hey, lets process this through a malfunctioning Star Trek Transporter and maybe we could get the inverse----if you remember that episode. C
  6. The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.[45/56]. Making it 46degs., or +3.0. Month to date is 53.2[+3.8]. Should be 51.1[+3.6] by the 29th. Last two days of November are now switched to AN, after a recount. lol! EURO Weeklies greet Winter with 11 straight days in the 60's. EURO Control outlook for December is a warning to 12/2015----Look Out!----I am gunning for you. 55*(54%RH) here at 6am. 54* at 7am. 60* by 11am. 62* by Noon. 63* at 1pm. 60* by 4pm. It clouded up after 1pm and T went no further. 54* by 9pm.
  7. I am not talking about being vaccinated with a debilitated virus, but getting exposed from the environment the way 10's of millions have worldwide. Isn't that what we are trying to achieve?
  8. 63* in NYC (2pm)is even 5 degrees beyond what the Wack-A-Do GFS had slated for today. If it makes you feel better, I have just 60* as of 2:30pm. [Made it to 61* by 4pm].
  9. I am not putting much faith into those 95% effectiveness quotes because all the short term testing results were purely statistical. NO ONE was actually exposed to a high load active nCV19 atmosphere and/or surface. No. Just two groups of equal size (40,000 each?) were given the subject vaccine or a placebo---w/o being told who got what, so that their behavior would not be influenced. Unfortunately on that score, those who got the vaccine had low grade fever, cough, aches and lethargy for a day and would know they got the real thing. At any rate, each group was told to keep wearing a mask, wash their hands and socially distance. After several months of going about their lives as they were before testing began-----it turned out that for every 10-15 placebo group subjects who at some point tested positive-----only 1 subject from the vaccinated group did. Thus the 95% or so number arises. All they really had to do to conclusively proof the vaccine really is effective, was to have had a third group that was actually exposed to the live virus------Here breathe deeply from the air in this bag!, Now touch this contaminated surface with your hands and then lick one finger, stick another finger in your nose and rub your eyes with a third one!! The eyes have been identified as a transmission venue. Now the two vaccinated groups should have similar outcomes. It is easy to see vaccinated people not wearing masks anymore, washing their hands no more often than they did before and not socially distancing. No, the third group I mentioned will exist only outside the laboratory. I did not even talk about safety issues here because there is not data for that. Something that is going to kill 1 in 10,000 subjects over a period of a few years can not be exposed in a test of a few thousand people lasting for a few months. All we know is that it can not be used in a Capital Punishment Execution----it works too slowly!!!
  10. The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.[47/56]. Making it 47degs., or +3.0. Month to date is 53.1[+3.6]. Should be 51.3[3.4] by the 28th. 47*(65%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 46* at 7am. 49* by 9am. 50* at 10am. 54* by Noon. 57* by 1pm. 60* by 2pm.
  11. GEFS Extended has the following to offer: Chance of Snow on Dec. 03, 08, 17-----for a total of 3". High in the 60's on the 13th and to greet Winter itself-----on the 21st. Really the first time I am seeing snow from this output-----it does cover over 30 days, so something better happen. Jan. 18 would mark one full year w/o measurable snow.
  12. The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.[43/54]. Making it 44degs., or just Normal. Month to date is 53.9[+4.2]. Should be about 50.8[+2.8] by the 27th. The GEFS Extended is still a vast winter time weather wasteland. We get near the current lows again only near the 29th., 07th, and 17th. It runs into the start of winter. Absolutely no Snow for this 30 Day+ period either, not a T showing. Would make 338 days w/o measurable snow, if correct. 32*(53%RH) here at 6am[low was 31* at 12:30am]. 35* by 8am. 37* by 9am. 40* by 11am. 41* by Noon. 43* at 1pm. 46* at 2pm. 48* at 3pm. 46* by 9pm.
  13. The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.[41/52]. Making it 42degs., or -2.5. Month to date is 55.2[+5.3]. Should be about 50.9[+2.8] by the 26th. 33*(50%RH) here at 6am. 32* at 7am. 33* at 8am---about 75mins. at 32*. Still 33* Noon. 35* by 2pm. My daytime high T peaked at 36* between 3pm-4pm.-----but high was 37* back at midnight. 33* at 8pm.
  14. Cold air is locked out of the lower 48 from Nov. 25---Dec.03+?. We could sneak in a BN day near the Nov. 29 or 30th. Nov. 20-23 looks like a solid +5 period. Nov. 24-30, near Normal but a +Bias. Around the 28th, 29th some record high T's should occur in the Dakotas and Minnesota----+30 indicated. GEFS has a 24-hour stretch of 60+ on, or just after Thanksgiving. Really looks like Week 3 of December before any sustained BN can set up.
  15. The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.[44/55]. Making it 45degs., or just Normal. Month to date is 55.9[+5.9]. Should be 52.3[+3.9] by the 25th. Tropics: 13.7N 84.3W---hitting Nicaragua. 44*(46%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 46* at 7am. 47* by 8am. 49* by 11am. 50* at Noon. 45* by 3pm. 43* by 6pm. 39* by 10pm.