CIK62

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About CIK62

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KJFK
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    ConeyIsland
  • Interests
    Amateur meteorology, guitar, handball, swimming,chess,Russian,Spanish.

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  1. The last 5 days of January are averaging 37degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +7.1[39.5]. January should end at +6.6[39.0]. The first 11 days of February are averaging (0Z, GFS) 40degs, or 7degs. AN. Snow near the 3rd. and 8th.(throw your dart). Where is the improvement that was forecast? Now the first 12 days on the next GFS run is averaging 35degs., or 2degs. AN, but all the snow is largely gone. And finally today's 12Z GFS is down to 34degs for this period., or 1deg. AN----but with No Snow (indeed No Precipitation at all), through the 12th. 38* here at 5am. 38* at 6am. 39* by 9pm. 43* by 2pm. 45* by 4pm.
  2. The last 5 days of January are averaging 38.5degs.,or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +7.1[39.4]. January should end at +6.9[39.3]........8th Place. The first 10 days of February are averaging 33.5, [0Z, GFS] or just about Normal. All three main models have sacrificed all of their snow for really ordinary cold so far. 39* here at 6am. 40* by 9am.
  3. The first 10 days of February are already back up, to 38.5 or +5.5, this time. It has 3 50-Degree Days, including when we were expecting colder T's----2/9-10. Can't we all just be friends and call this waiting game off? >>>>>>>Member Question to Allsnow: Did you post the 50mb Height Anomaly by accident, really meaning the 500mb. Anomaly? If 50mb heights are BN, isn't the air at 2M going to be AN? Second post down.
  4. If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random. AN and BN days should average out, right? This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period. This streak could have begun on any one of those days. And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings) could have experienced this event. I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or 100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random. There must be more reasons to reduce this. Any thoughts?
  5. The last 7 days of January are averaging 40degs., or 7.5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.8[39.2]. January should end at +6.9[39.3], or 8th. Place. Indeed, as speculated, the EURO 18" has melted away in one run. The first 10 days of Feb. are averaging 35degs., or +2. Nothing should happen till the 8th., snowwise. Winter to date is: From Dec. 01 +3.4 and From Dec. 22 +7.3. 43* here at 6am. 42* at 7am. 43*, breezy, drizzle at 8am. 44*, rain at 9am. 49* by 3pm, rain,windy. 51* with breaks in clouds at 3:30pm.
  6. Last word for the night. The EURO is 18" for Feb. 02. When I wake up tomorrow.................Where Is It? "Oh Eban!, Is It Really Me"?......... or just these idiot computer models.
  7. READY SET GO Put on your swimsuits or man the snow shovels? JB is stressing the fact that the EURO Weeklies have 40" of Snow for us over the next 46 days, but the OP has none for the first 10 days of this period. This would then be an inch per day affair. Anyone remember what the weeklies were for the last 46 days to date? Currently we have 4.8", say half of the normal.
  8. The remainder of January is averaging 41degs., or 9degs AN. Month to date is +6.6[39.0]. January should end near +7.2[39.6], or tied for 8th Place. It deserves it----don't you think!? The first 8 days of Feb. are averaging 39 or about +6. (0Z, GFS) 41* here at 6am. 40* at 6:30am. 45* by 9am. Made 50* here by 11:15am. 51* finally by 2:15pm. 53* at 3pm. GFS is snowless till Feb.08, CMC is coldest but with no snow for the next 10 days and the EURO is a Trace near Feb.02.
  9. Next 8 days are averaging 40.5degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +6.5[38.9]. Should be about +6.9[39.3] by the 31st. The first week of February looks much colder now at just +2.0[35.0]---but the price of that is that the GFS*** has no Snow for its entire duration. EURO likes the end of the month/Feb 01 with 4", CMC is a Trace. ***Latest run, 12Z, back to +7.0[40.0]. 33* at 6am. 36* by 9am. 41* by Noon. 46* by 3pm.
  10. In the Good News/Bad News category, today's Lovin' Spoonful is an analog from 01/30/2006. If you like T's in the 40's, 50's, 60's then a 26.9" snow storm, then the 50's and 60's again----and all in a rapid succession, you are on: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif
  11. Next 8 days are averging 39degs., or about 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.9[39.3]. Should be about +6.8[39.2] by the 30th. My Kudos to AccuWeather for changing their January Outlook early in the month from +1 to +6. No snow anywhere w/o any 32 degree days for the most part or the whole part. The first 6 days of February are averaging 41degs. or +8. Dog stops chasing its tail February 08? 28* here at 6am. 30* by 9am. 33* by Noon. 41* by 3pm 43* at 4pm. 39* at 6pm.
  12. If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview. This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter. DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA with it. When you are done doing that, you can wipe your nose with it. You might want to reverse that. Another day older and deeper in do-doo. Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here. Bookend snowstorms, a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs. Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif
  13. The next 8 days are averaging 37.5degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +7.5[39.9]. Should be about +6.8[39.2] by the 29th. The first 5 days of February are +6. 22* here at 6am. 23* by 8am. 26* by 10am. 29* by Noon. 32* by 2pm. 33* at 2:30pm. 34* at 3pm. All models are snowless for their durations.
  14. Once again we have a stellar analog leading the pack of '02/05/1961' which picks up right after that winter concluded so spectacularly. 16 straight High T's under 32, a -2 morning and an 18" Blizzard. Nothing happened after that day to take the bank. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif
  15. The next 8 days are averaging 35.6degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +8.2[.40.7]. Should be +6.7[39.1] by the 28th. This +3 it maintains for the remainder of the month, so January ends at +6.1[38.5]. First 4 days of February are +9. All models have no more than a Trace near the 26th. CMC looks like its the coldest for next 10 days. NB: The 06Z GFS looks like its older brother run of exactly four days ago, which was 24" of wet snow here. Start of Feb. looks better too at +7.5 for the first 5 days. PAGE1REPLATE: Unfortunately SD just called an end to the winter within 3 weeks. He must have gotten this from Judah Cohen with whom he consulted with 10 days ago. JC stated an inexplicable heating of the ionosphere had destroyed the strat. warming. I noted this then, but saw no follow up here from the members. 21* here at 6am. 27* by Noon. 30* by 2pm. 32* by 3:30pm.