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January 2023


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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's worth seeing a warm, snowless winter just to spite clowns like Joe Bastardi whose been calling for a cold/snowy winter. 

He's now saying volcanic activity in the ring of fire is what has led to warming oceans & climate essentially. Absolute lunatic 

People are also forecasting a PV enlogation on twitter.

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's worth seeing a warm, snowless winter just to spite clowns like Joe Bastardi whose been calling for a cold/snowy winter. 

He's now saying volcanic activity in the ring of fire is what has led to warming oceans & climate essentially. Absolute lunatic 

I thought JB said volcanoes would cool the climate with all the ash they dump into the atmosphere. Wish he’d make up his mind.

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1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

I thought JB said volcanoes would cool the climate with all the ash they dump into the atmosphere. Wish he’d make up his mind.

They do both apparently. They're the reason we've seen warming and they'll cool the climate too. He wins no matter what. 

I guess it makes sense he's leaned hard into the far right conspiracy crap because that's the only people willing to buy into his garbage and pay for his stuff.

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

They do both apparently. They're the reason we've seen warming and they'll cool the climate too. He wins no matter what. 

I guess it makes sense he's leaned hard into the far right conspiracy crap because that's the only people willing to buy into his garbage and pay for his stuff.

I don't get all the JB bashing

He only forecasted 15 inches of snow for NYC this winter .

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

The fast PAC Jet has been our issue the last few winters and this one is no different at least so far.

Yup. Bluewave is 100% right that we need to get a decent pattern modeled inside 10 days.  The models continually underestimate the pac jet. 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not bad

Lets move this up

Screenshot_20230102-075226_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230102-075237_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230102-075321_Chrome.jpg

Yeah this may be what saves us but it depends if the switch in recent days to a stronger amplitude idea is right...if its not who knows what happens.  I am more of the belief what we have seen on the emsembles the last 3 cycles is more a can kick than a death sentence so probably can still see something happen but it may be closer to 1/20 or later

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The fast PAC Jet has been our issue the last few winters and this one is no different at least so far.

Yeah, the faster Pacific Jet started with the 18-19 season. Notice the step down in snowfall from the previous 5 year period. The strong La Niña background state prevented the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. We got really lucky with the +PNA -AO for the 2020-2021 La Niña.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 M M M T
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5



 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 7.9 1.4 T 18.1
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 M M M 0.4
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0
2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7
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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah this may be what saves us but it depends if the switch in recent days to a stronger amplitude idea is right...if its not who knows what happens.  I am more of the belief what we have seen on the emsembles the last 3 cycles is more a can kick than a death sentence so probably can still see something happen but it may be closer to 1/20 or later

Yeah I'm just a hobbyist, however it's rare to have a complete ratter when you already had one good pattern that same winter (we struck out on a 90 mph fastball down the middle). 89/90 is the only winter I can remember that went from a good pattern to a shut out pattern the rest of the way. 97/98, 01/02, 11/12, 19/20 were all shut out looks from December 1st onwards.

Also as a lot have said blocking usually returns when it presents itself in December.

Can we end up with an 89/90 repeat? Sure. However it's not the norm.

OT. My personal lowest was 3.5 in 97/98 all falling in March. I am stuck at 1.5 so far (CT coast all had at least a half this year), I think eclipsing 3.5 this year is a safe bet.

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the faster Pacific Jet started with the 18-19 season. Notice the step down in snowfall from the previous 5 year period. The strong La Niña background state prevented the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. We got really lucky with the +PNA -AO for the 2020-2021 La Niña.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 M M M T
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5



 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 7.9 1.4 T 18.1
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 M M M 0.4
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0
2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7

 

This is why I wonder if it couples next winter or not or we run into the same issue.   I think it depends on the magnitude...if its 0.3 the pattern could still be La Nina like in 23-24 

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the faster Pacific Jet started with the 18-19 season. Notice the step down in snowfall from the previous 5 year period. The strong La Niña background state prevented the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. We got really lucky with the +PNA -AO for the 2020-2021 La Niña.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 M M M T
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5



 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 7.9 1.4 T 18.1
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 M M M 0.4
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0
2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7

Wouldn't it be better not to include this season. 

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8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You know what, 89/90 had snow in March so even that was not a complete shut out after the December good look.

Central Park recorded snow each month that year.

 

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Jan had a slushy inch or two and late Feb had a clipper

Climate is completely diff then 89/90 now….that clipper would probably be rain now 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Climate is completely diff then 89/90 now….that clipper would probably be rain now 

I have to disagree, clippers tend to occur in colder setups.

Also, we JUST had snowy Marches and April's in 18 and 19, a blanket statement like that is not correct.

Global warming does have an affect, but to say a clippers would be rain now in March is crazy.

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Must have been cold if we had clippers, more of a dry northern stream issue.

I cannot call that year a ratter. Not like the others.

It felt like a ratter because December had so much promise with the historic cold around and we got nothing but snow showers and rain and seasonal snowfall was still quite below average

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have to disagree, clippers tend to occur in colder setups.

Also, we JUST had snowy Marches and April's in 18 and 19, a blanket statement like that is not correct.

Global warming does have an affect, but to say a clippers would be rain now in March is crazy.

And it was 85 a week after the March clipper

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It felt like a ratter because December had so much promise with the historic cold around and we got nothing but snow showers and rain and seasonal snowfall was still quite below average

88-89 as a whole was worse northeast wide than 89-90 was....89-90 I think places in New england had some snow events in Feb/Mar where as 88-89 just was brutal across the board..it shows as top 10 least snowiest almost in every station although there was lots of bad luck in February 89 despite a cool month

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It felt like a ratter because December had so much promise with the historic cold around and we got nothing but snow showers and rain and seasonal snowfall was still quite below average

Yeah it definitely felt like a ratter. However overall a much better winter than true ratters IMO like 98/98, 01/02, 11/12 and 19/20.

If this winter were to come close to shutting us out the rest of the way, 89/90 would be the best match. 

01/02 was unique in that we had a precipitation issue. Ratter nonetheless.

 

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From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch.

Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70.

The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall.

Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.

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20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch.

Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70.

The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall.

Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.

I wrote this elsewhere. But believe it's also relevant here:

The physics of the realm seem to be becoming increasingly too complicated for models to understand, the farther into the future it goes. Ie, the models are beginning to have to compute so many increasing variables, it's simply overpowering them.

It makes sense to me from a chaos point of view. The more chaos in a system, the more volatile and less predictable the outcomes become. Models are seeing increasing potential energy tied in with increasing background variables. 

But I digress, this is not necessarily the place for this discussion. Yet I bring this up for two reasons: 

1) Agreeing that long range modeling is grasping at straws lately. 

2) I believe the physics of this realm tends to portray themselves early in the season. Ie, there's a reason we always predict a pattern change and rarely see it. An object in motion stays in motion until acted upon by another force. So -in the case of what I am advocating here- the seasons are sufficient to change the patterns as natural forces act to change the patterns. Yet once a season begins, that pattern tends to lock in as it take tremendous power/force to alter a seasonal pattern. Of course that does not mean that it cannot happen, however, it is much harder to break into a new pattern than most computer models, ppl, etc give it credit for. 

As an aside, this does not mean I am canceling winter on Jan 2. That - In my opinion- would be foolish. Just laying out some thoughts. 

 

 

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IMO, it is premature to print the obituary for Winter 2022-2023 in the New York City area, even as some might be drafting, even revising, their obituaries. However, a strong signal about the overall character of Winter 2022-2023 could become evident by the end of January. If the January 16-31 mean temperature exceeds 32° in New York City following a 40° or above January 1-10 mean temperature, that could provide strong evidence that Winter 2022-2023 will see much below normal snowfall. Caveats apply from the sample size (n=21) and the impact of climate change on precipitation outcomes and hemispheric patterns.

image.png.98e7bc747232e2f23a1966a9d5f3ed8f.png

For those keen on writing Winter 2022-2023's obituary but facing "writers' block," some boilerplate language follows:

This winter had great promise for snowfall. With deep Atlantic blocking throughout December, the rise of the PNA to positive levels, and a 3-sigma Arctic blast, the pattern became especially favorable for snowfall. Numerous significant snowstorms heralding snowy winters had occurred in the midst of similar patterns and sufficient cold air. Yet, despite the anticipation and excitement, December saw no measurable snowfall. For snow lovers, it was as joyless a Hanukkah and Christmas as one could have imagined. The biting Arctic winds added to the sting of the sight of barren frozen ground. Overall, Winter 2022-2023 proved to be remarkably mild and its lack of snowfall was noteworthy. Winter 2022-2023 is will be remembered only in the nightmares of snowless winters.

Back to January 2, a great deal of patience is required while much of the New York City-Newark-Philadelphia areas await their first measurable snowfall of the winter.

 

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Yeah, when I wrote my modestly upbeat comments yesterday I was mainly holding onto the notion that such a potent arctic airmass in Dec along with such powerful blocking wouldn’t be the start of a shutout winter. But that last storm really demolished the playing field and the reset so far hasn’t been close to what we need.

That mid month signal looks / looked interesting, but it really needs to dig further south to get us in the game at least on track alone. Quite a few days out still, of course. Maybe it gets interesting, maybe not. 

I’ll tell you one thing, I’ll always take the cold in place first. I know we don’t “need” an arctic air mass and I know it can even be counterproductive, but I’ll always take having some cold air in place like last Jan. 

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I mean what's the difference between this winter and 20/21?

Why can't a February like 21 happen again?

Like 20/21, we had a good December pattern. Only difference is we wasted this one where we scored on one event in 20/21.

Isn't this progression more like 20/21 than say 19/20 or last year?

NOT saying the progression=forecast as there are meteorological components and no two winters are exactly alike.

However, why would someone automatically assume a 19/20 when we JUST had a good pattern in December?

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I found a Climate of New York booklet printed in 1960 and refised in 1972. It is from NOAA/ Department of Commerce. For Central Park they list the following:  

                                                   1960 Norms              Since 2000

Normal temperatures by month-  J-33.2                      33.3                                

                                                        F-33.4                      35.7

                                                        M-40.5                     43.2

                                                        A-51.4                       53.7

                                                        M-62.4                     64

                                                        J-71.4                       71.9

                                                        J-76.8                      77.4           

                                                        A-75.1                      76.4

                                                        S-68.5                     69.6

                                                        O-58.3                    58.2

                                                        N-47                       48.2

                                                        D-35.9                    39

                                                       YR.-54.5                  55.8                                                   

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