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January 2023


wdrag
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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is there any truth to what Joe Bastardi posted on Twitter regarding this. Screenshot_20221228_113919.thumb.jpg.f86977154925dc1c70a145fbf5338388.jpg

Five points:
1. The map is using the warmest 1991-2020 baseline.
2. Use of the current baseline "resets" the maps to a warmer baseline and masks the warming that has occurred in recent decades. Thus, when discussing climate or making climate-related judgments, they don't tell the full story. When NCEI releases the data early next year, 2022 will very likely rank among the 20 warmest years in the CONUS since 1895 and perhaps among the top 10.
3. The extremes matter. They can't be "undone" simply by pointing to averages. There were a number of historic hot events and some cold ones (e.g., the most recent Arctic blast that saw Casper reach an all-time record low -42F).
4. His conclusion in the second sentence has no support in the scientific literature and no connection to the climate record.
5. I'm not sure what ranges the map is using, but here's the NOAA map for January 1-December 26:

image.png.667e906d22fb85ba613fed3c912382a1.png

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Great info Don.

I noticed Joe B carefully cherry picks every data point or model to point to the coldest outcome. 

Unfortunately that seems to be the nature of our society today. People get an opinion and then look for the facts that back it up and overlook the ones that don't back it up.

 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

 

 

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24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Beautiful day. 48 degrees here as our warm pattern has started. Frustrating that it appears that it will be a long time before we see our first snowstorm of the season, but I will enjoy the warm weather. I think we'll see 60 degrees the middle of next week. 

I’m glad someone at least will appreciate this weather. Seriously, no snark intended at all. I genuinely already feel whatever the reverse of seasonal-affective disorder coming on. Instead of being depressed in the cold, snowy winter months, I get depressed when it’s warm and sunny in the winter instead :wacko:.

Get out and enjoy it at least so somebody is :).

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10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m glad someone at least will appreciate this weather. Seriously, no snark intended at all. I genuinely already feel whatever the reverse of seasonal-affective disorder coming on. Instead of being depressed in the cold, snowy winter months, I get depressed when it’s warm and sunny in the winter instead :wacko:.

Get out and enjoy it at least so somebody is :).

I have mixed emotions about the bitter cold. I know it is winter and cold with snow is what it's all about. However, that cold where you don't even want to go out is not really for me, especially as I get older. It used to bother me when it didn't snow, now not so much.

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10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I have mixed emotions about the bitter cold. I know it is winter and cold with snow is what it's all about. However, that cold where you don't even want to go out is not really for me, especially as I get older. It used to bother me when it didn't snow, now not so much.

Of course, I don’t necessarily require bitter cold to not feel that depression, but I absolutely do require a seasonal winter vibe. 

I did genuinely enjoy the past several days though; there’s something about real cold air that I find uplifting and refreshing. I can’t really explain it, though admittedly I probably have some wires crossed somewhere :arrowhead:.

I’m the sort that would be happy as a clam living and working in Antarctica. 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Five points:
1. The map is using the warmest 1991-2020 baseline.
2. Use of the current baseline "resets" the maps to a warmer baseline and masks the warming that has occurred in recent decades. Thus, when discussing climate or making climate-related judgments, they don't tell the full story. When NCEI releases the data early next year, 2022 will very likely rank among the 20 warmest years in the CONUS since 1895 and perhaps among the top 10.
3. The extremes matter. They can't be "undone" simply by pointing to averages. There were a number of historic hot events and some cold ones (e.g., the most recent Arctic blast that saw Casper reach an all-time record low -42F).
4. His conclusion in the second sentence has no support in the scientific literature and no connection to the climate record.
5. I'm not sure what ranges the map is using, but here's the NOAA map for January 1-December 26:

image.png.667e906d22fb85ba613fed3c912382a1.png

 

FROM NOAA.gov Dec 15 CLIMATE post:  Suggest this as a reliable solution.  Emotional reactions don't lend to quiet rational assessment.  

The year to date (YTD, January through November) global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average, making it the sixth-warmest YTD on record.

According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record but a less than 1% chance that it will rank among the top five.

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13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Of course, I don’t necessarily require bitter cold to not feel that depression, but I absolutely do require a seasonal winter vibe. 

I did genuinely enjoy the past several days though; there’s something about real cold air that I find uplifting and refreshing. I can’t really explain it, though admittedly I probably have some wires crossed somewhere :arrowhead:.

I’m the sort that would be happy as a clam living and working in Antarctica. 

Many of us on this board feel similarly. I know I feel a definite lowering of mood when it is excessively warm and snowless in winter.  After all, it is a weather site and most of us look forward to winter being wintry. I wasn't always this way. I believe it is a learned behavior--- the improved technology allowing better tracking (sometimes), and beautiful graphics has combined with the aesthetics of snow and ice to weave a beguiling winter web around me. Seeing that  Euro run with the right colors proves to be a dopamine saturated reward.  The drama of storms also contributes. (unless like recent western NY extremes where lives are lost)

In January --dry ground and 48 with no storms calls for prozac.

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10 minutes ago, wdrag said:

FROM NOAA.gov Dec 15 CLIMATE post:  Suggest this as a reliable solution.  Emotional reactions don't lend to quiet rational assessment.  

The year to date (YTD, January through November) global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average, making it the sixth-warmest YTD on record.

According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record but a less than 1% chance that it will rank among the top five.

Yes. That’s an invaluable resource. Through November, the much smaller CONUS ranked in a tie with 1931 as the 17th warmest year (1.44F above the 20th century average temperature).

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50 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Models seem to be backing off somewhat with the warm up, after Thursday of this week. 

That and waking up to a fantasy coastal that gives me a significant dump before hitting NE; not bad all things considered! 

Let’s see if the GFS can hold that storm in any fashion through today, but realistically I’m sure it’ll swing to Bermuda before Chicago before disappearing. 

Still, a better position than yesterday!

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28 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

That and waking up to a fantasy coastal that gives me a significant dump before hitting NE; not bad all things considered! 

Let’s see if the GFS can hold that storm in any fashion through today, but realistically I’m sure it’ll swing to Bermuda before Chicago before disappearing. 

Still, a better position than yesterday!

Agree.  I didn't even mention the storm, to far off and the way it has been going this year it may end up in Chicago. :)

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22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Five points:
1. The map is using the warmest 1991-2020 baseline.
2. Use of the current baseline "resets" the maps to a warmer baseline and masks the warming that has occurred in recent decades. Thus, when discussing climate or making climate-related judgments, they don't tell the full story. When NCEI releases the data early next year, 2022 will very likely rank among the 20 warmest years in the CONUS since 1895 and perhaps among the top 10.
3. The extremes matter. They can't be "undone" simply by pointing to averages. There were a number of historic hot events and some cold ones (e.g., the most recent Arctic blast that saw Casper reach an all-time record low -42F).
4. His conclusion in the second sentence has no support in the scientific literature and no connection to the climate record.
5. I'm not sure what ranges the map is using, but here's the NOAA map for January 1-December 26:

image.png.667e906d22fb85ba613fed3c912382a1.png

 

Awesome analysis.

Something that gets me every year (especially in Winter) is why some people have to harp on the coldest or warmest solutions and can't admit that they're wrong. It's literally out of your control. Even if you read models and trends perfectly, there are so many moving parts that can be a fly in the ointment. Being wrong is a part of life. 

I don't understand. 

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50 minutes ago, North and West said:

Maybe they're reading into a volcanic (you probably know the correct word to use here) incident cooling things off after reading your research?

Haha, I would expect if anything Hunga Tonga will be having some impact on the SPV and teleconnections, but it’s beyond me to say precisely what. Need someone skilled with atmospheric physics but who also has some understanding of volcanic climate impacts (perhaps why there isn’t a ton of research in this area, there is some no doubt, but for how impactful volcanoes can be on the climate and how historically impactful they have been I would think there’d be more). 

A nice and simple “net negative” influence on temperature anomalies is unlikely with the way Hunga Tonga erupted (as it was relatively sulfur poor), however there was indeed recent research suggesting its climate altering gas release was underestimated. So it’s really tough to say. 

And then you get into the anomalous release of water vapor, which physics of course suggests is a greenhouse gas… And you have a confusing mess trying to sort out what impact HTHH will be expected to have this year and the following several years, and it’s why I’ve seen multiple opposite takes from several different smart people favoring different aspects of the eruption. It’s not cut and dry, and will really only likely be “known” in retrospect. 

FWIW I lean toward a “chaos” element with the teleconnections, which may have already been manifesting this December. I have no way to prove that and could be entirely wrong, but I believe large eruptions can cause some alterations to global patterns via teleconnections and the SPV. We saw something like this with Pinatubo, and going back into the historical period there was all sorts of bizarre and intense weather following Tambora and Krakatau. Highly recommend people read about those events and their climatological aftermaths, it’s very fascinating. 

Lord Byron and Mary Shelley actually give quite interesting accounts of the insane, stormy, and cold weather in Europe following Tambora (which was something like 10-20x larger than Hunga Tonga depending on which volume estimate you prefer). 

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What caused the slight backing off of temps, changes to the Pac jet?

With regards to the GFS, we're solidly above average until next Friday when a strong shortwave builds down from the Rockies and digs a trough into the Southeast. This supposedly is enough to break down the ridge and kick it East. After the storm threat and a brief cool down the ridge reloads again by Mid Month. In any event, I'm highly skeptical of the storm threat next weekend. The Euro digs the energy into the Southwest and that would create a big plains cutter and reload the ridge. We could end up 20-30 degrees above normal by the second week of January if the Euro ends up being correct. And yes, any cool down would be brief, maybe 3-5 days of seasonable temps.

gfs_T2ma_us_65.png

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