romba
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
romba replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Recon data will be ingested for 0z? -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
romba replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
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Probably using the newer AIs to review the models to pick out tendencies or biases, and then compensating. I'd think that weather is still too complicated/not enough sampling yet for this to be too helpful, but who knows if in a few years this really has an effect.
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Holy moly you think ppl are pissed at the zoo keeper for poor/under measuring now?
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There’s a middle finger somewhere in that image
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Very true, that’s actually ridiculous
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Not really, but neither have we seen anything close to a hit with any consistency either. Just because there’s no consensus for exactly how it misses NYC proper, doesn’t mean there’s no consensus that it does miss. Not the greatest logic I’ll admit, but there’s something to it.
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OP’s greater resolution hold more weight so close to start time, not sure how useful the ensembles are anymore.
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Very fair, but at this juncture I feel that with each passing 6 hours the odds of a significant correction get smaller and smaller. It’s getting late early, to quote the great Yogi.
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Different path to a similar outcome. I know RGEM has a warm bias but it would take a miracle at this point to get significant snows to the city.
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Plus RGEM and latest NAM 12k. So basically all the models. RAP and HRRR are still out of range so I wouldn’t put any credence in them, Euro has shifted over to the GFS, which is quite frankly embarrassing. UKIE is useless these days too. NYC proper is pretty much out of it unless 1-3 inches of slop on street corners after an inch+ of rain is what you’re looking for.
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Unless they say cutter or OTS for NYC proper, then 0 wavering
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Yea, and the F doesn’t stand for fail
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Do I say city and immediate area? Not sure what language to use so everyone doesn’t get needlessly pissed off, thanks.
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Metro area lost the CMC
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6z Euro running I’m assuming?
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Hopefully with all the energy on shore the GFS is the start of a positive 12z suite for us city folks
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Vastly different snow maps- Tidbits 10:1 GFS snow map versus Pivotal 10:1
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2 lows, drawing is back in
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so the nyc ppl should be happy for you and you should then likewise be upset for them. ofc everyone cares abt their back yard and will voice their opinions based on that. PBPs should be unbiased (good for interior, poor for city verbatim etc.) but opinions on models runs after that are just that- opinions.
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Don't models generally account for that or do they just spit out mix or sleet if the surface is above freezing even if all other layers are below?
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yea me too, don't buy it though that map is wayyyy overdone imo. Cut in half, and then half again is probably more realistic imby in NENJ on that run lol
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This: Vs same run on pivotal Let's not get out hopes too high off of one crazy weenie map, I think the pivotal is more realistic here
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Compared to 0z Euro is, so far, east and 10 mb weaker Edit: Next frame hr 84 in roughly the same spot but 7mb weaker
