romba

Canadian says No

I think the Para GFS has had more head-fakes than the original.

Too often those HPs slowly back off and we get Cut

Euro with a nice track, weak on precip:

At least we don't have 3 inches of salt accumulating on bone dry surfaces that you can taste whenever there's the slightest breeze outside. It's the little victories these days.

I’m probably totally off base here, but where were these studies when we were buried under snow year in and year out just a few years back? Increased water temps lead to more snow and amped systems, until it doesn’t and then the increased warmth leads to warmth and no snow. I’m not familiar with the research, but it just seems to match whatever temporary cycle we currently are in, which is a huge issue in general with data and research nowadays.

We've had a few the past few years at the peak of winter, it just hasn't worked out. Alot of 'surface reflectivity not matching the upper levels' and 'precip field is catching up to the changes aloft' that never manifested. OTOH, during our feast years I remember a number of coastal huggers bombing off and producing solid snow for the coast.

True, but a bit hyperbolic. 48 hours you tend to get a solid picture of even the more complex systems. At 72 hrs most models are close enough to each other to know a real risk or not. But anything more than that is just popcorn fodder.

84 hr 18z NAM

12Z Euro with a pressure drop of 12 mb in 6 hours

Our forum in a nutshell the past 3+ years

define 'dumped on' lol

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/28/hurricane-zeta-track-louisiana/ Flight-level winds during a midafternoon Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight hit 138 mph; extrapolated down to the surface, that would suggest 101 mph winds at the surface. A dropsonde, or probe, released shortly after found a surface wind of 115 mph in the southern eyewall. That would indicate Zeta is near or at major hurricane status. The National Hurricane Center did not upgrade Zeta in their most recent advisory, raising the potential that the measurement was suspect. Regardless, Zeta continues to increase in strength and could approach Category 3 intensity as it makes landfall. NHC: 115 mph winds? Naaahhh, we toss

After the past few winters in the city he's allowed some healthy cynicism even if it is a tad early.

Hey guys maybe some pros can help me out, my tidbits feed seems stuck from last winter. (I haven't used it since then).The dates have been updated but GFS is showing the same day 15 snowstorm. This has been happening for like 3 years now. I tried restarting in safe mode, didn't work. Ideas?

Pings in Brooklyn, lmao more frozen at 44 at the end of April then at 37 in February