romba
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Everything posted by romba
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Not windy during Octosnow but heavy wet stuff on trees with leaves led to many broken limbs and branches. I drove home Saturday night from Hackensack and it was an obstacle course on the side streets with downed trees and wires. Once you hit the city- nada
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Cool cool, Russia is now part of this forum
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WPC not buying the ice potential yet?
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Looks beautiful out, moderate snow getting close to an inch (eyeballing) 3 miles west of the GWB
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It's getting clearer, just not how some of us want it to be....
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I'll be happy enough with 5+inches at this point, enough for the kids to go sledding and have fun on Sunday. Anything more is gravy (Thanksgiving style, the good stuff)
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Less wind here = better ratios and hopefully power staying on
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Yup, the double barrel feature might be legit at this point. Just not certain why they're sending more aircraft recon for tonight's 0Z runs so late in the game....
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6Z NAM EVERYBODY'S COMING WEST BABY followed by 12 Z suite maybe not
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Read on here it’s supposed to be ingested for tonight’s 0z suite
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It’s out already on pivotal and for sure the French site, and looks east to me fwiw
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I’m hesitant to put much weight on the mesos at the end of their runs so it’s rn only the Euro showing NYC proper getting the goods. The globals, aside from the Euro, seem to be showing the surface low just east of the BM, we want that a little more tucked but I’d still think the precip shield would be a teensy bit more expansive without suppression pushing down. Euro on an island despite some west trends, I expect it to tick a little east to start to meet its buddies somewhere in the middle.
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JMA supported the Euro for a bit when it was on an island too, NAVGEM jumped aboard too if I recall, better than nothing but barely lol
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H5 Monster for next weekend. I’ll say this, I’d rather have the op GFS in my camp than the Euro, though Euro shows a storm too at least, crazy times we’re living in
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Except for this winter, smart money this year is unfortunately on the 'no snow' progs. As we saw a couple of weeks back, all the ensembles at 5-7 days, their $ range, were like SNOWWWW BOYYSSSSSS and the OPs, which are supposedly weaker that far out, all said to ef off. Guess who won
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I took the CMC on a date, and I'm sleeping with the EC. Will not marry either.
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GFS continues to show surface low popping in a good spot southeast of the city, unfortunately the mid and upper levels seem locked in as west, west and west. They haven't budged in like 36 hours so no go with this one. Was fun to track and learn
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Slight improvements on the Euro at 500 and the surface, but still too way too far west for the city/coast.
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So ideally 500, 700, 850 lows should track East for snow. Does surface lp matter or not really?
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The models like hedging their bets with the multiple lows farther out and tend to hone more on one low as it gets closer, didn't that happen with the last storm?
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I don't know enough to comment myself, but a pro right beneath him said that it was a pretty dramatic shift east implying it does matter....
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Love that, 40-50's, dare I say 60's, followed by a perfect track Miller A that produces it's own cold air and get to enjoy the snow for a few days before back unseasonably warm. Watching the temp drop from upper 50's or low 60's to mid 30's as storm time starts, and then down to low 30's as it really gets ripping is great. As opposed to the oncoming one where we'll most likely be watching it go from teens/20's to low 40's
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I think the general agreement of the operationals lends weight to them. The complicated synoptic setup apparently also gives the ensembles more difficulty, though what big storm isn't a complicated setup?
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That's the truth. Fun to track and hope but need to be level headed. I remember about 4-5 years ago the models were showing low over the lakes acting as a kicker for our potential storm. Close, but OTS about 100 miles too soon run after run. Then, just as the clock was running down, when all hope was lost (except for mjo/snow88 of course), an aircraft recon ingest at about 84 hours before the storm revealed the lakes low not to be a kicker but to actually slide under and push our storm north, and we ended up with a foot+. That was exciting to track!
