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January 2023


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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


The crazy part is, global temps have not dropped despite a 3rd year moderate La Niña, in fact, they have gone up. In our “old” climate, Nina’s would drop the global temps, not anymore. AGW appears to be increasing

CO2 PPM is double what it was. We emit CO2 faster than the earth can recycle it. If we stopped today it would take time for the planet to catch up. We are screwed. The silver lining is mammals existed when it was 1000 ppm and the sea levels were 15 feet higher. It’s only 400ppm now. So we have a little time to stop. 

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Unfortunately I'd be surprised if the Euro is still showing the same thing tomorrow let alone by the end of the weekend. 

The op Euro is not what it used to be. The fact that the GFS isn’t suppressed and is showing an inland runner at this range is not good. Also, the JMA which is always the far eastern outlier is showing an inland runner for the Wed/Thurs event. Both huge red flags
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Rain will end tonight or early tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" remains likely in the region. Readings will remain above normal through at least the weekend.

The lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia through at least the weekend. The next period of interest could be January 22-24. Ensemble support for measurable snow has fallen. The National Blend of Models shows no accumulations for New York City. A second storm could also impact the region a few days later.

A cooler pattern will likely develop during the last 5-7 days of January. The duration of this cooler period remains uncertain. Should ridging develop in the East, a warming trend could develop during in early February following a cool start to the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +6.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.221 today.

On January 17 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.561 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.616 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.9° (7.2° above normal).

 

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-7542400.thumb.png.2331a7af6156232d4e7362b03a15da43.png

We've been warm since Christmas. There hasn't been one cool day since 

EPS has 2-3 cool days late Jan and that's it

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40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-7542400.thumb.png.2331a7af6156232d4e7362b03a15da43.png

It’s over…nyc will go 0.0 like Philly did 

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21 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Hour 312 on the GFS, here comes our new fantasy storm..... 

dear god PLEASE GIVE US ONE. two weeks away though, if that thing comes through as depicted this sub needs to collectively play the lotto together. We can be rich and enjoy the snow

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s over…nyc will go 0.0 like Philly did 

Zero was my call for NYC Metro back when the predict snowfall totals thread was created. Based solely on stirring the pot, which it did. Back to back wins 

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A reminder about the EPS weeklies. Beyond two weeks, skill disappears. So, temperature or 500 mb patterns shown for weeks 3-6 could be dramatically different from the actual outcomes. So, right now February could start cool but not severely cold. Moderation will then follow. Afterward, it’s uncertain how things will evolve.

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