Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Picked up 0.38" of rain so far today. Current temp 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 18z nam in full blown trolling mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 18z nam in full blown trolling mode. HAHAHA what if that one of all models turned out to be right. Imagine the reaction on the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: you'd think they'd be used to that.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Did you see the new Euro weeklies? Oooof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Did you see the new Euro weeklies? Oooof Cancel February 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Cancel February Yea lol that’s one way of putting it… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Rain will end tonight or early tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" remains likely in the region. Readings will remain above normal through at least the weekend. The lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia through at least the weekend. The next period of interest could be January 22-24. Ensemble support for measurable snow has fallen. The National Blend of Models shows no accumulations for New York City. A second storm could also impact the region a few days later. A cooler pattern will likely develop during the last 5-7 days of January. The duration of this cooler period remains uncertain. Should ridging develop in the East, a warming trend could develop during in early February following a cool start to the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +6.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.221 today. On January 17 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.561 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.616 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.9° (7.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Euro weekly guidance. The coolest week out of the next four: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Cancel February looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month We've been warm since Christmas. There hasn't been one cool day since EPS has 2-3 cool days late Jan and that's it 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Hour 312 on the GFS, here comes our new fantasy storm..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Cancel February If the storm on 2/1 plays out the way the 18Z GFS is depicting I'd be ok with the rest of February being canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month It’s over…nyc will go 0.0 like Philly did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: It’s over…nyc will go 0.0 like Philly did i highly doubt that. below average? seems like a lock tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s over…nyc will go 0.0 like Philly did That's still really hard to believe until I see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Hour 312 on the GFS, here comes our new fantasy storm..... dear god PLEASE GIVE US ONE. two weeks away though, if that thing comes through as depicted this sub needs to collectively play the lotto together. We can be rich and enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s over…nyc will go 0.0 like Philly did I think it may be over for next year to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s over…nyc will go 0.0 like Philly did Zero was my call for NYC Metro back when the predict snowfall totals thread was created. Based solely on stirring the pot, which it did. Back to back wins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: Zero was my call for NYC Metro back when the predict snowfall totals thread was created. Based solely on stirring the pot, which it did. Back to back wins Winter isn't over yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Did you see the new Euro weeklies? Oooof 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Cancel February Yea like they have been great all winter but now they will be right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Winter isn't over yet. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Yea like they have been great all winter but now they will be right . March will be here before you can say torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 29 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Zero was my call for NYC Metro back when the predict snowfall totals thread was created. Based solely on stirring the pot, which it did. Back to back wins Don't pat your self on the back just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 A reminder about the EPS weeklies. Beyond two weeks, skill disappears. So, temperature or 500 mb patterns shown for weeks 3-6 could be dramatically different from the actual outcomes. So, right now February could start cool but not severely cold. Moderation will then follow. Afterward, it’s uncertain how things will evolve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just for entertainment value. As bad as those weeklies look, 100% of the members do get at least some snow into NYC at one point or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks like it has blocking reload late, possibly due to the SPV weakening. but it does look like we'll get warm for the first half of the month If we’ll be “getting warm” vs now, we’re talking beach days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 YOU SEXY THING: "Snow is in the Eye of the Needle" But the Ensemble still struggles to give us 100% chance for even an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, CIK62 said: YOU SEXY THING: "Snow is in the Eye of the Needle" But the Ensemble still struggles to give us 100% chance for even an inch. You never know. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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