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January 2023


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The next 8 days are averaging     41degs.(36/46) or +8.

Month to date is     43.8[+9.8].        Should be       42.9[+9.3] by the 28th.

Reached 46 here yesterday.

Today:    46-48, wind w.-breezy, variable clouds, 36 tomorrow AM.

0% till the 25th.       Closer to 100% now---but GFS lags.

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42*(93%RH) here at 6am.        43* at 7am.      44* at 9am.      45* at 10am.        48* at Noon.         Reached  49* at 12:30pm.      43* at 8pm.

 

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Another stratosphere post since the target timeframe is approaching 10 days now. Dr Butler tweeted yesterday she referenced the nasa GEOS model. Without a doubt, this is who to pay attention to for this. 

So here's the GEOS model from overnight at day 10. Fairly robust run. Be interesting to see what trends or doesn't with this over the next several days. Gefs was a little more enthusiastic about it overnight also. Just starting to come into view on the euro as well. So we observe. 

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16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unlike with recent storms going back to December, ensemble support has been increasing inside a week for potential measurable snow in New York City for January 25-27 (focus is on January 25-26). A big snowfall remains highly unlikely.

image.png.bf502e00e24bbf1dbf629c224ab33589.png

CMC/Ukie/Euro all start NYC as snow for that one. The high to the north should support the possibility of frozen precip at the start. Still far out though. 

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unlike with recent storms going back to December, ensemble support has been increasing inside a week for potential measurable snow in New York City for January 25-27 (focus is on January 25-26). A big snowfall remains highly unlikely.

image.png.bf502e00e24bbf1dbf629c224ab33589.png

It's going to be much too mild to snow, Don, temps in the mid 40s.

 

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It's useless, going to quickly change to rain.
 

It’s definitely going to all rain, even up where I am. Question is can you actually get something measurable on the lead front end? I guess it’s better than nothing since NYC has zero snow up to now, before the pattern goes completely to hell again the first week of February
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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

In a normal winter I’d agree, in this winter seeing an hour or two of snow falling from the sky would be something lol. 

It would, I've actually been adding those up.

It happened one time in November for an hour, but it was at night and I didn't see it.  It happened once in December for a few hours (that was the most we had, I would call it a heavy coating lol), but also at night, but you could see it on cartops and rooftops in the morning and the third time was last weekend and I actually got to see it because it was during the day and I'd call that a light coating.

So three events, one did not accumulate at all, one was a light coating and one was a heavy coating.

The change to rain thing is what I hate because it washes it all away as if it never happened.

 

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Just now, snowman19 said:


It’s definitely going to all rain, even up where I am. Question is can you actually get something measurable on the lead front end? I guess it’s better than nothing since NYC has zero snow up to now, before the pattern goes completely to hell again the first week of February

That's what I want to know too, there is such a short window for this, and then no more chances until possibly March.

What are the chances of any snow on the back end on Monday?  That would be more interesting than a coating that quickly gets washed away by rain.

 

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10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

My wife and I are looking at houses in orange county

Any specific area that's good ?

If you are moving from the city stay in the east side of the river for your sanity if you are staying with your job in the city. We love Putnam county plus you can always see snow at Thunder Ridge and it is an easy commute to the city with no damn bridge. 

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1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

If you are moving from the city stay in the east side of the river for your sanity if you are staying with your job in the city. We love Putnam county plus you can always see snow at Thunder Ridge and it is an easy commute to the city with no damn bridge. 

Which part is affected by shadowing?

 

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That's what I want to know too, there is such a short window for this, and then no more chances until possibly March.
What are the chances of any snow on the back end on Monday?  That would be more interesting than a coating that quickly gets washed away by rain.
 

I don’t think it changes back to snow. This winter can’t be over, it never even started. Been nothing but a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth since mid-November. The only semblance of winter was the 4 day arctic cold snap Christmas week
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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


I don’t think it changes back to snow. This winter can’t be over, it never even started. Been nothing but a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth since mid-November. The only semblance of winter was the 4 day arctic cold snap Christmas week

Do you ever get tired of saying the same thing different ways each post? 

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1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I agree the changing to rain stinks but what are we gonna do, it’s our best chance to see any snow it sounds like before March unless something else pops up on the narrow 1/27-2/2 window. 

nobody on this forum has the ability to predict out 6 weeks. when you accept that fact you make yourself a little bit happier. matter fact, like most professional meteorologists six days out is only 50%.

 

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4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

nobody on this forum has the ability to predict out 6 weeks. when you accept that fact you make yourself a little bit happier. matter fact, like most professional meteorologists six days out is only 50%.

 

No one can reliably make 6 week weather predictions here or elsewhere. Beyond 2 weeks, even the best ensemble systems have limited skill. These are important points that should be kept in mind at all times.

Yet, especially on some social media sites, long-range maps—even operational ones—are posted, frequently with accompanying claims, as if the events are essentially certain to unfold. Often the highlighted maps are the most extreme ones and they are deployed in a demonstration of confirmation bias.

When the events don’t occur as forecast, one sees timelines adjusted e.g., the cold would be coming in early January, then mid-January, then late January and so one. Then, when a cold shot ultimately arrives, even if fairly unimpressive, forecasting “victory” is proclaimed. Instead, there was no real skill involved.

No pattern lasts beyond a finite but irregular period. Thus, if one keeps claiming the “wolf” is coming, it will eventually show up. When it does, does this mean that there was forecasting skill? 

Of course, the same constraints on predictive skill apply in many other areas (financial market forecasts are rife with similar bold claims and lack of skill). The reality is that time comes with uncertainty. Longer forecasts can never be perfect. 

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