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January 2023


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On track for one of the warmest Januaries on record with more mild weather to go.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 43.8 12
2 1932 43.2 0
3 1950 41.8 2
4 1990 41.4 0
5 2006 40.9 0
6 1913 40.8 0
7 1933 40.3 0
8 1937 40.2 0
9 1998 40.0 0
10 2002 39.9 0
11 1880 39.2 0
12 2020 39.1 0


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C98D694C-FD49-4BAC-A49E-9BC6C98F269B.thumb.png.4fbf9715fc0bd9e7e84047634ee6fae1.png

 

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I see NAM finally woke up. The 12z run doesn't have any snow for NYC and you have to go well NW to see any accumulation. RGEM is a much better model than NAM and this was another example of that. 

The NAM has been out to lunch all winter long. Really not even worth looking at anymore. The RGEM has been schooling it
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This has been the 2nd lowest NYC snowfall through January 20th and 5th lowest for ISP.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 20
Missing Count
1 1871-01-20 0.0 0
2 2023-01-20 T 1
- 1973-01-20 T 0
3 1995-01-20 0.2 0
- 1901-01-20 0.2 0
4 2016-01-20 0.4 0
- 2007-01-20 0.4 0
- 1966-01-20 0.4 0



 

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Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter. 

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The 12Z Euro keeps the low south of Michigan and NYC starts snow on Wed. Can't believe we are tracking a storm that will be at most an inch of slop to rain but thats winter 2022-2023.  

Probably less than that. Those 10:1 ratio maps are not going to be accurate for that event. Ratios are going to be lower
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18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter. 

Yeah, if we are going to avoid the shut out it's going to have to be the 97/98 route of waiting till late February/March for shorter wavelengths/increased volatility.

That being said, a shut out was bound to happen at some point. Came close multiple times in the past, most recently 1997/98, so maybe this time it finally happens.

Just like the undefeated football season WILL eventually happen, a shut out will at some point as well.

 

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26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter. 

Yea probably honestly it's gonna end up all rain. On to the hour 240 storm, at least the pattern is staying active although I'm sure more rain.  

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4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I wouldn’t care about the no snow if it was at least cold and felt like winter.

 

My gut tells me CPK is going to have a shut out this year. There’s just no cold air and everything keeps cutting to the west. 

This week is done.

 

 

Check the models for the end of the month. Plenty of cold air.

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11 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

Makes you wonder how we got 95-96 out of that decade.

Yup. 3 good years (2 great one average) and 7 complete dumpster fires. I remember one day in the early 90s in Feb was so freaking warm some kids had short sleeves. I do not miss that decade.

 

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23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

My gut tells me CPK is going to have a shut out this year. There’s just no cold air and everything keeps cutting to the west. 

This week is done.

Still around 50 days of more favorable climo left, still think a shutout is the least likely outcome.  At least I hope so.

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3 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Still around 50 days of more favorable climo left, still think a shutout is the least likely outcome.  At least I hope so.

The pattern stays active through early February and it's a little cooler so probably thats our best chance although this winter everything that can go wrong seems to go wrong.   

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