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January 2023


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10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It rains in NYC on 0z NAM, but it changes the rain over to snow and manages to give NYC a few inches monday morning. We know how unlikely that is. NAM will probably come to reality tomorrow. 

Or maybe the others will fold ( let's hope)

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Or maybe the others will fold ( let's hope)

0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something. 

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something. 

It is a little colder than 18z but only a little. 

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It looks like model convergence towards snow for the Poconos through Catskills and Taconics and mostly rain southeast of there.  The initially sharpish shortwave in the Ohio Valley induces a weak inland primary SLP and WAA through the Mid-Atl. and our area. That screws us. But thereafter (and likely too late for us) the wave dampens and everything slips east. A key will be how strong the shortwave and primary SLP are initially. Thunderstorm development out of the Gulf tends to sharpen trofs. But if it can stay flat enough like the NAM, we might get close to the snow line.

I expect the NAM to move west and warmer and the GFS to tick south and colder. Any movement by the EC, UK, and CMC will be indicative. 

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The ICON looks more like the NAM than the GFS/RGEM thankfully. It's also hanging back energy in the trof... something that was apparent on the 0z NAM and even a little on the 18z EC. That is a sign of the displaced and unphased shortwaves, which could weaken but also drag out the event.

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0z ICON with one of the better runs of the year. Two solid snow threats in the mid-range and then cooking up another big one at the end. The upper levels look suspect as early at 60 hours out, so I don't trust it at all without support. But at least it shows how things could theoretically turn for the better.

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19 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Minisink area, west of Middletown. Good snow area (not now...). That would be areas of Slate Hill, Greenville, Waywayanda, Otisville, etc.

I completely agree with this. I live where Greenville & Otisville intersect. Good elevation as well throughout ranging from 700-1300’

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Quick thoughts: Looks to me like the GFS continues tooo warm and wet. It failed northern MA overnight...reattached the graphic posted Monday the 16th from Tomer's Polar Weather link on predominant precip 00z-06z/20  They've had 2-5" of snow in far northern MA as of 1A this morning. 

NWS comms has been problematic last night and early today but making do with other resources.

My quick impressions which are in line with cooling trends to seasonable temps last few days of the month into the first 4 days of Feb:  More seasonable winter weather expands across the I84 corridor into early February. The snow, whatever there is will tend to be wet and melt on roads during the daylight hours. Parts of the I84 corridor should see a total of half a foot between 7AM today and 7am next Friday the 26th-a one week period.

 

Screen Shot 2023-01-20 at 6.26.08 AM.png

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Morning thoughts…

It will sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 49°

Temperatures will average above normal through the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5°

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