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BGM Blizzard

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About BGM Blizzard

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBGM
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  • Location:
    Maine, NY
  1. As usual the weak instability will probably keep things from getting too out of control in these parts. Not much break in the clouds anywhere except down across C PA and the Mid Atlantic region although some pockets have formed across finger lakes to the Tug Hill area attm. Coincidently this is the area I would give the best chances to for severe wx in the Upstate region today (central southern tier through finger lakes to SYR area).
  2. Not for nothing, BGM is trailing SYR by just half an inch for 1st place in the 5 city race for total snowfall. From that stand point, would like to see another inch or 2 as BGM has not won since 1982-83. The terrain advantage and time of year may still allow for it to happen.
  3. 12z Euro (little more snowier than 0z, but still pretty much isolated to W and N NY other than the high terrain between SYR and Cortland vicinity)
  4. C NY is pretty much out of the running with this save maybe an inch or 2 on the hills south of SYR. Otherwise this is a WNY event if there is 1 to be had at all. Euro had a sloppy 1-3 from the western finger lakes westward with some 3-7 amounts in the ridges near and parallel to lake erie. I don't see more than that happening given the time of year.
  5. Euro had interior western ny (away from both lakes shores) flipping to wet snow early Friday AM and lasting into Friday evening. Obviously anything this time of year is a marginal setup for snow. WNY probably the only part of the region with any real shot at some accumulation with this one.
  6. Yeah this potential weekend threat is dying off fast and nothing else in the pipe line for snow threats through the end of the month. I'm ready to enjoy some moderating temps and sunshine too.
  7. Taking into account the temp profiles, it offers at least a quick and dirty method of trying to apply reasonable ratios and is probably going to be more accurate than just straight up estimating 5:1, 10:1, 15:1, 20:1 etc. I'm sure it has some limitations in its assumptions, but so far what I've seen it print out for the last few storms seems to reasonably measure up with end results.
  8. Snowpack taking it on the chin today. Down to 12-15" on the ground and dropping fast. I'll probably be down to bare ground by weeks end. Crazy.
  9. Very sharp gradient to the accumulation output. Using 10:1 ratio... shoreline is 10-14, City proper is 6" and the far south along Livingston Co line is 2-3". Like Dave said though, good chance ratios end up less than 10:1. The Kuch ratio is not automatically greater than 10:1, however, it estimates the snowfall based on thermal profiles, so it will vary its estimates from place to place. The Kuch ratio estimates 6-7:1 in ROC area for this run, so that translates to 6-10" along shoreline, 4" City proper, and 1-2" in far south.
  10. Euro does show some ice initially as colder air bleeds in, particularly near and south of 90, but surface temps are in the 31-32 range, so it would be a really marginal setup to get much in the way of ice accretion. I think this will be mostly a rain vs. snow issue.
  11. I-90 may offer as a decent battle line in the early going as the 12z Euro shows. Sharp cuttoff to accums. I think this will end up being all or mostly rain south of 90, but still time to change a bit perhaps. Two things that tend to help greatly in early and late season snow storms is elevation and latitude. This looks to be no different. The further north you go the quicker and better chance that cold air filters in to get some snow out of this otherwise unfavorable pattern.
  12. Albany... LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next chance of precipitation arrives on Friday as a warm front approaches from the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic region. Thermal profiles tricky to determine this far out, with a chance of snow to start, then possibly changing to rain especially in valley locations. Some significant differences then start to appear in the GFS/ECMWF solutions for Friday night into the weekend. The GFS is indicating the warm front will pass through allowing for a mild air mass to build in for Saturday, while the parent storm tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. However, the ECMWF is now showing a strong 1040 mb high migrating southeastward across Ontario/Quebec during this time, which would result in the warm front possibly stalling just to our south with the potential for waves of wintry precip moving through. The position/strength of the high will have a large influence in determining where the front sets up, so this is a very low confidence for next weekend including temperatures and precip types/amounts.
  13. Only site that I have seen the German model on is the same that has the nicer UK maps. It only shows the German ICON out to 78 hours...
  14. BGM... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next system to impact the region will come Friday afternoon. There are large discrepancies within guidance on the track of the next system, the timing, and the precip type. We will closely monitor this next sfc low as it evolves.
  15. Only goes out to 72 on the nicer maps, and out to 144 on Ewall. Based on H144 H5 and surface maps, it looks fairly similar to the Euro with the storm sitting near the TX/OK/NM/CO borders.