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BGM Blizzard

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About BGM Blizzard

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Maine, NY
  1. Yeah this potential weekend threat is dying off fast and nothing else in the pipe line for snow threats through the end of the month. I'm ready to enjoy some moderating temps and sunshine too.
  2. Taking into account the temp profiles, it offers at least a quick and dirty method of trying to apply reasonable ratios and is probably going to be more accurate than just straight up estimating 5:1, 10:1, 15:1, 20:1 etc. I'm sure it has some limitations in its assumptions, but so far what I've seen it print out for the last few storms seems to reasonably measure up with end results.
  3. Snowpack taking it on the chin today. Down to 12-15" on the ground and dropping fast. I'll probably be down to bare ground by weeks end. Crazy.
  4. Very sharp gradient to the accumulation output. Using 10:1 ratio... shoreline is 10-14, City proper is 6" and the far south along Livingston Co line is 2-3". Like Dave said though, good chance ratios end up less than 10:1. The Kuch ratio is not automatically greater than 10:1, however, it estimates the snowfall based on thermal profiles, so it will vary its estimates from place to place. The Kuch ratio estimates 6-7:1 in ROC area for this run, so that translates to 6-10" along shoreline, 4" City proper, and 1-2" in far south.
  5. Euro does show some ice initially as colder air bleeds in, particularly near and south of 90, but surface temps are in the 31-32 range, so it would be a really marginal setup to get much in the way of ice accretion. I think this will be mostly a rain vs. snow issue.
  6. I-90 may offer as a decent battle line in the early going as the 12z Euro shows. Sharp cuttoff to accums. I think this will end up being all or mostly rain south of 90, but still time to change a bit perhaps. Two things that tend to help greatly in early and late season snow storms is elevation and latitude. This looks to be no different. The further north you go the quicker and better chance that cold air filters in to get some snow out of this otherwise unfavorable pattern.
  7. Albany... LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next chance of precipitation arrives on Friday as a warm front approaches from the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic region. Thermal profiles tricky to determine this far out, with a chance of snow to start, then possibly changing to rain especially in valley locations. Some significant differences then start to appear in the GFS/ECMWF solutions for Friday night into the weekend. The GFS is indicating the warm front will pass through allowing for a mild air mass to build in for Saturday, while the parent storm tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. However, the ECMWF is now showing a strong 1040 mb high migrating southeastward across Ontario/Quebec during this time, which would result in the warm front possibly stalling just to our south with the potential for waves of wintry precip moving through. The position/strength of the high will have a large influence in determining where the front sets up, so this is a very low confidence for next weekend including temperatures and precip types/amounts.
  8. Only site that I have seen the German model on is the same that has the nicer UK maps. It only shows the German ICON out to 78 hours...
  9. BGM... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next system to impact the region will come Friday afternoon. There are large discrepancies within guidance on the track of the next system, the timing, and the precip type. We will closely monitor this next sfc low as it evolves.
  10. Only goes out to 72 on the nicer maps, and out to 144 on Ewall. Based on H144 H5 and surface maps, it looks fairly similar to the Euro with the storm sitting near the TX/OK/NM/CO borders.
  11. Euro has surface temps in the mid 20s for the storm, and comparing the Kuch and 10:1 ratio maps, it is projecting a 15:1 ratio verbatim with roughly 2-2.5 inches of QPF. Looking at some other H5 maps from Ewall, looks like a thread-the-needle job between getting a favorable track and thermal profiles. Looks like we get a HP dropping south and east from the north to keep this thing from tracking northeast and also to funnel down cold air just in time to get a snow bomb.
  12. 12z Euro is a real crusher for everyone. Major accums near and south of I-90 verbatim. Too bad its sort of still in fantasy range though, but definitely something to keep an eye on...
  13. Euro going to come in well south of last night 0z for that system next weekend. Might be big hit...
  14. Off and on good rates here for last few hours. Maybe an inch so far though nothing sticking to the pavement.
  15. BGM has recorded an additional 4.1 yesterday and now has 35.3 for the event. The 2016-17 year is now all alone atop the record books with 131.7 breaking the 1993-94 single season record of 131.3. That makes for 2 straight record breaking winters with 2015-16 total of 32.0 setting the all time record for least snow. Talk about a rebound! And we still can't manage to win the snowball award over SYR lol. All good.